Why Trump will win in 2020 and it won't even be close

[bb1961]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

That won't be until next July 13-16. We'll miss out on all the fun between now and then bashing or promoting all the candidates.

There have already been several people on this forum predicting the 2020 victor without know who the Democratic candidate will be or having any idea what will happen in the next 18 months to impact the election. That's what makes it so much fun.

Yeah speed this shit from PMSnbc is going to sink Trump...
https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb...enge-2020-dems

https://www.mrctv.org/videos/msnbc-l...enge-2020-dems

[dilbert firestorm]

2 more dem candidates entered the race.


how many clowns do we have now?

[bambino]

US Steel just announced they are spending 1billion dollars to modernize two steel mills in Pittsburgh. Creating thousands of new jobs in in the Mon Valley. Trumps magic wand at work again.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by bb1961

Yeah speed this shit from PMSnbc is going to sink Trump...
https://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb...enge-2020-dems

https://www.mrctv.org/videos/msnbc-l...enge-2020-dems

You keep forgetting. The economy was doing equally as well in November 2018 when Republicans lost 40 seats in the House and lost the House popular vote by 8.6%, the largest mid-term vote margin since 1974 by either party.

There is obviously more on voter's minds than the economy.

"Trump is struggling despite a strong economy. Here's why."

https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/03/polit...020/index.html

[bambino]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

You keep forgetting. The economy was doing equally as well in November 2018 when Republicans lost 40 seats in the House and lost the House popular vote by 8.6%, the largest mid-term vote margin since 1974 by either party.

There is obviously more on voter's minds than the economy.

"Trump is struggling despite a strong economy. Here's why."

https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/03/polit...020/index.html

You keep forgetting Trump wasn’t on the ballot. You also forget that the Republicans picked up seats in the Senate. Which was historic. Obama and Clinton won rel-election while losing more House seats in the midterms. Read my prior post. That is huge news. Pittsburgh will never return to its steel making heyday, but no one thought US Steel would pour money back into these mills.

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/u-s...ls-11556823367

[bb1961]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

You keep forgetting. The economy was doing equally as well in November 2018 when Republicans lost 40 seats in the House and lost the House popular vote by 8.6%, the largest mid-term vote margin since 1974 by either party.

There is obviously more on voter's minds than the economy.

"Trump is struggling despite a strong economy. Here's why."

https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/03/polit...020/index.html

49 yr. low unemployment...the jobs Obummer said WEREN'T coming back.
A GDP Obummer said WOULDN'T happen...since you said Obummers economy was GREAT for you...please tell me these numbers are bad for you...please don't let up now.
Your TDS never lets up...do you have some polls about how people hate the low unemployment and record GDP...I'm sure you can find some.
I'm sure most Presidents would LOVE to "struggle" with these figures
He's "struggling" because you don't like him...GOTCHA

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by bambino

You keep forgetting Trump wasn’t on the ballot. You also forget that the Republicans picked up seats in the Senate. Which was historic. Obama and Clinton won rel-election while losing more House seats in the midterms.

The popular vote and "average" pickup in the house is all they have to try and "pretend" 2019 was some sort of mandate against Trump.

As you note, the "average" 40 seat pickup was not even as high as mid-term losses by Obama and Clinton. Additional things left out of that popular vote number are that it was about 90 house races that were decided by less that a 10% margin and something like 35 of the Democrat flips came from those low margin races. It's generally been this way in mid-terms for ages that the party in power loses seats during the first presidential mid-term. This was no different and nothing extraordinary.

And as you also note with a roughly similar popular vote win margin, the Dems lost Senate seats.

As I noted in some previous threads, hanging your hat on the popular vote doesn't mean squat. The country is largely very divided at this point with about 30 states with majorities primarily RED(with state legislatures in Republican control) and 20 states with majorities primarily BLUE(with state legislatures in Democrat control).

And that the larger majority of States are largely RED doesn't bode well for the Dems in the Senate nor the Electoral College, while with the number of split districts in the House it remains a toss up.

https://www.governing.com/topics/pol...nors-2019.html

The swing states will still make or break Trump, but the polarization of states continue to get more and more distinct.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by bambino

You keep forgetting Trump wasn’t on the ballot. You also forget that the Republicans picked up seats in the Senate. Which was historic. Obama and Clinton won rel-election while losing more House seats in the midterms. Read my prior post. That is huge news. Pittsburgh will never return to its steel making heyday, but no one thought US Steel would pour money back into these mills.

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/u-s...ls-11556823367

I have NOT predicted a Trump loss in 2020. Yes, Trump was not on the ballot in 2018 but just about everyone understands that midterm elections are in part a referendum on the sitting POTUS.

Yes, Republicans picked up 2 seats in heavily Republican states but Republican candidates lost in states Trump won in 2016 -- Montana, West Virginia, Arizona. Could have been much worse for Democrats.

And yes, the U.S. Steel announcement was positive for Trump, but again it is in the economic sector and that is but one factor in the 2020 election. You tend to forget that health care and immigration weigh more heavily on voter's minds than the economy.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by bb1961

49 yr. low unemployment...the jobs Obummer said WEREN'T coming back.
A GDP Obummer said WOULDN'T happen...since you said Obummers economy was GREAT for you...please tell me these numbers are bad for you...please don't let up now.
Your TDS never lets up...do you have some polls about how people hate the low unemployment and record GDP...I'm sure you can find some.
I'm sure most Presidents would LOVE to "struggle" with these figures
He's "struggling" because you don't like him...GOTCHA

The positive economic figures do not impact my life at all. Stock market up. I don't have any money there. GDP up. Does not impact me. Unemployment rate down. Does not impact me. Wages up. Does not impact me.

Stock market growth under Obama was great for me because at that time I had significant money in the market and the growth gave me a nice nest egg before I moved it into more secure investments.

Again, because you don't seem to get it, the economy is doing fine under Trump. It is the one area that he can point to and say "Success".

[bb1961]

Yeah open boarders and sanctuary cities are a real winner with the average voter.
High GDP,low unemployment and high wages IMPACTS the USA as a whole...do a little economics research!!
What impacts your life...free shit and open boarders??
The DEM house that you keep cheering...is a real train wreck.
The one payer system the left pushes SO hard is a real winner also...no way to pay for this shit by the way.
The UNaca is limping alone...on borrowed time.
Your man Bitten is struggling right out of the gate...and he ain't
liberal enough for the base...maybe they will nominate another McGovern...that is a real winning combo...we've seen that before.
Which candidate of yours doesn't want to give away a ton of FREE SHIT??
The winning campaign slogan..."I'm not Trump"...they got your vote.

[bambino]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

I have NOT predicted a Trump loss in 2020. Yes, Trump was not on the ballot in 2018 but just about everyone understands that midterm elections are in part a referendum on the sitting POTUS.

Yes, Republicans picked up 2 seats in heavily Republican states but Republican candidates lost in states Trump won in 2016 -- Montana, West Virginia, Arizona. Could have been much worse for Democrats.

And yes, the U.S. Steel announcement was positive for Trump, but again it is in the economic sector and that is but one factor in the 2020 election. You tend to forget that health care and immigration weigh more heavily on voter's minds than the economy.

I don’t tend to forget anything. You do. You tend to forget that the media coverage on Trump is more than 90% negative. Clinton and Obama had hugely positive coverage. And WTF is Biden’s economic message? Dignity? WTF is he talking about? He and Obama didn’t care for the dignity of coal miners or people who lost manufacturing jobs due to their policies. Trump will have favorable trade deals like NAFTA 2.0 and with China. That will help the economy BIGLY. And you failed to mention the Republicans picked up a Democratic Senate seat in Indiana. The bottomline is, Republicans picked up seats in the Senate. Something Clinton and Obama didn’t do. And the Republicans lost less house seats than Clinton or Obama.

[LexusLover]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

You keep forgetting. The economy was doing equally as well in November 2018 ....

By whose measure?

https://www.un.org/development/desa/...iefing-no-119/

That the 2018 election results was Obaminable's fault. Right?

Under Trump's changes the economy has been RAPIDLY improving even with the LameStreamMedia screaming the "sky is falling .... SOON!"

Most of those "winners" proclaimed PissLossi wouldn't be supported for another 2 years .... and also dismissed the idea of impeachment .... as a waste of time and interfering with the positive work they had promised their voters.

It's all on record and in archives for political ads in 2020. This is 2019.

Since you "live by the polls" ....

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...roval-903.html

April 2019 .... average Congressional approval rating: Approval 21% Disapproval 67%

"Promises Made and Forgotten"!!!!!

[rexdutchman]

Well the dim-wits re pushing LOSER"S I don't get it

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by eccielover

The popular vote and "average" pickup in the house is all they have to try and "pretend" 2019 was some sort of mandate against Trump.

As you note, the "average" 40 seat pickup was not even as high as mid-term losses by Obama and Clinton. Additional things left out of that popular vote number are that it was about 90 house races that were decided by less that a 10% margin and something like 35 of the Democrat flips came from those low margin races. It's generally been this way in mid-terms for ages that the party in power loses seats during the first presidential mid-term. This was no different and nothing extraordinary.

And as you also note with a roughly similar popular vote win margin, the Dems lost Senate seats.

As I noted in some previous threads, hanging your hat on the popular vote doesn't mean squat. The country is largely very divided at this point with about 30 states with majorities primarily RED(with state legislatures in Republican control) and 20 states with majorities primarily BLUE(with state legislatures in Democrat control).

And that the larger majority of States are largely RED doesn't bode well for the Dems in the Senate nor the Electoral College, while with the number of split districts in the House it remains a toss up.

https://www.governing.com/topics/pol...nors-2019.html

The swing states will still make or break Trump, but the polarization of states continue to get more and more distinct.

I agree with most of what you are saying. We can argue forever about how important the midterm election results were. What is important to me is that turnout was incredible for a midterm election. Highest midterm turnout in history. And Democrats have had a history of avoiding midterm elections. Why did so many voters turn out?

In the 2016 elections Republicans won the House popular vote by over 1 million votes. In the 2018 midterms Democrats won the House popular vote by almost 10 million votes. So the question is why such a turnaround in 2 years?

Turnout will decide the 2020 election.

I agree with you that it will be difficult for Democrats to gain control of the Senate in 2020. But I disagree that the electoral vote does not bode well for Democrats in 2020. It comes down to Democrats flipping states with a total of 38 electoral votes. As I continue to say, it's fun to discuss but much too early to put anything in concrete. It's anybody's game.

Trump's 2020 map from hell

https://www.axios.com/trump-2020-ele...3a87beb13.html

The 2020 Electoral College: Our First Look

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...our_first_look

[LexusLover]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

...
Turnout will decide the 2020 election.

What an in-depth, astute, and intellectual conclusion! (Sarcasm Alert)

EVERY ELECTION DEPENDS ON "TURNOUT"!!!!!!!

Now if one really wants to flex their prowess at predictions simply predict TODAY what will be the CAUSE of the TURNOUT....... OR LACK THEREOF!!!!

And continue the silliness of making a useless statement like "turnout will decide an election" .... by announcing proudly AFTER THE ELECTION that it would have been won had only the Socialist run by the DNC had been able to get .... "the turnout"!

Is that what defeated HillariousNoMore? A SHORTAGE OF VOTES?

There are caravans of voters coming North to sneak across the Southern Border!

The way the DNC did it in Bexar County (San Antonio) for years was gather the "voters" at a predetermined spot with the help of a "block captain," load them in the back of a "vegetable truck" (like those large ones one sees in the Latin American countries .... as long as one gets off the tourist trap), hand them a piece of paper telling them for whom to vote with a promise of "tamales" and "cerveza" after they vote according to the paper, and then a trip to the nearby COUNTY PARK (paid for by the real taxpayers of the county) TO ENJOY THEIR BOOZE AND EATS. aka "voter turnout"!!!!

So the DNC doesn't even have to dream up a strategy to use them after they sneak in.