OPINION: Think support for Trump is dying down? His New York rally told a different story.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by DEAR_JOHN

Slight? Either you didn't check out the links or you're in severe denial. If there was a poll that tossed out the high and low, Bloomberg wouldn't even be mentioned.


Being a conservative, I prefer to check out the Trafalgar polls, but realize they do have an actual slight tilt to the right.

Trafalgar is much more to the right than Bloomberg is to the left. Every poll should be taken somewhat lightly.

As I said before, what worries me most about the polls is that in 2020, although the polls were correct on a Biden victory, the polls overstated Biden's margin of victory nationwide and in most states. If the polls in 2024 are as inaccurate as in 2020 and are overestimating Harris, she is in trouble. I am hoping that the pollsters have corrected their sampling errors.

[DEAR_JOHN]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Trafalgar is much more to the right than Bloomberg is to the left. Every poll should be taken somewhat lightly.

In Nevada, Bloomberg has harris at +7 with another outlier is +3 and a majority of polls have harris or Trump at +1.
In Arizone, Bloomberg has harris favored while every other polls picks Trump.


So yes, I stick with my comments about Bloomberg having shitty polls. And it's about the numbers, not about who wins or loses.

2024 Nevada: Trump vs. Harris

AmGreatness/TIPP9/23 - 9/25736 LV3.75049Harris+1

Atlas Intel9/20 - 9/25858 LV3.05148Harris+3 <2 point outlier

Bloomberg9/19 - 9/25516 LV4.05245Harris+7 <6 point outlier

Rasmussen Reports9/19 - 9/22738 LV3.04849Trump+1

The Hill/Emerson9/15 - 9/18895 LV3.24848Tie

Noble Predictive Insights9/9 - 9/16692 LV3.74847Harris+1

Trafalgar Group (R)9/11 - 9/131079 LV2.94544Harris+1

InsiderAdvantage8/29 - 8/31800 LV3.54748Trump+1


****************************** ****************************** **********************
2024 Arizona: Trump vs. Harris

USA Today/Suffolk9/21 - 9/24500 LV4.44842Trump+6

Atlas Intel9/20 - 9/25946 LV3.05049Trump+1

FOX News9/20 - 9/24764 LV3.55148Trump+3

Bloomberg9/19 - 9/25926 LV3.04750Harris+3 <only poll to pick harris when all others pick Trump.

Marist9/19 - 9/241264 LV3.85049Trump+1

Rasmussen Reports9/19 - 9/221071 LV3.04947Trump+2

NY Times/Siena9/17 - 9/21713 LV—5045Trump+5

The Hill/Emerson9/15 - 9/18868 LV3.34948Trump+1

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Bloomberg is the sponsor. Morning Consult does the polling. They are rated 1.9 stars out of 3, not very good. Near the middle of all companies. Bloomberg itself if rated slightly left of center.

"Overall, we rate Bloomberg as Left-Center biased due to story selection that slightly favors the left. We also rate them Mostly Factual in reporting, rather than High, due to not covering Michael Bloomberg and his Democratic Presidential rivals during the primaries."

There certainly seems to be a bias in the polls sponsored by Bloomberg.

[TheDaliLama]

New York times lead story today is " why people leave Trump rallies early. I didn't read it but I'm sure it's because they found nearby Dems who obligs them by saying the rhetoric was too much for them. It's could never be because there are 60,000 people there and some might have to work or get back to their kids or they want to beat the traffic.
The once great New York Times now a complete joke. Part of the US pravda network.

[eyecu2]

the aggregate poll site; that is likely a better homogenized pallet of all polls is 538. They have had Harris leading Trump for the last 3 months by 2-3 points. Currently 2.7pts ahead.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...2024/national/

also of note- within a 1pt margin in:

PA- Harris plus.7
MI- Harris plus 1.6
WI- Harris Plus 1.7
GA- Trump plus 1.3
NV- Harris plus 1.0
NC- Trump plus .6

[DEAR_JOHN]

Originally Posted by eyecu2

the aggregate poll site; that is likely a better homogenized pallet of all polls is 538. They have had Harris leading Trump for the last 3 months by 2-3 points. Currently 2.7pts ahead.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...2024/national/

also of note- within a 1pt margin in:

PA- Harris plus.7
MI- Harris plus 1.6
WI- Harris Plus 1.7
GA- Trump plus 1.3
NV- Harris plus 1.0
NC- Trump plus .6

Your cherry picking and finally finding poll results that make you comfortable means absolutely zero. Almost every polling site has different results. We will find out in early November the actual results with polling numbers.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by DEAR_JOHN

Your cherry picking and finally finding poll results that make you comfortable means absolutely zero. Almost every polling site has different results. We will find out in early November the actual results with polling numbers.

538 includes ALL polls and averages them, as does 270ToWin. No cherry picking.

Polling companies say they tried hard to eliminate the bias shown in 2020. We will know in a little more than 4 weeks how that worked out.

[Yssup Rider]

Originally Posted by DEAR_JOHN

Your cherry picking and finally finding poll results that make you comfortable means absolutely zero. Almost every polling site has different results. We will find out in early November the actual results with polling numbers.

Cuts both way, brother.

And yes we will. The big question is whether MAGA world will accept the result. So far, we have every indication that won't be the case.

Trump's base is locked in. It's not getting any bigger. His support is waning, as the people leaving his stream of barely-conscienceness ramblefests confirm.