1st 2012 Prediction - Iran and Israel

[kingorpawn]

Originally Posted by Billy_Saul

While we are on the subject of Iran; can someone who knows more then myself please explain to me why the drone that went down in Iran territory recently was allowed to be taken whole by that government. Given that the US has the capability to put a laser guided bomb down your chimney, I can't believe we just threw up our hands on this one and allowed this technology to be captured. Is it perhaps a Trojan drone?

From what I heard and read, Obama was given several options from sending SF to retake it or destroy it to bombing it, but Obama saw those options as an act of war.
I personally was suspicious of it being a Trojan drone and allowing it to be taken by the Iranians for a future US attack. Or it could be simply that the technology the drone has is out there already. The Russians, the Chinese and maybe even the Israelis have those kinds of drones.

I'm with you. I just can't believe that even Obama will allow it to be taken unless the US is planning something we don't know about.

[theaustinescorts]

Originally Posted by winemaker

UWB is a stealth radar. Usually cannot be detected. UWB can detect ANY known stealth aircraft currently produced by USA. ECM only goes so far.

Many countries ( China, Russia, France, Germany ) have UWB radar since the early 90's.

It's been a long time since I had anything to do with low observables, but in my day the principle was that "stealth" incorporated into an aircraft does nothing to ELIMINATE it's radar cross-section, but it REDUCES it dramatically.

Whether a "stealth" aircraft can or cannot be detected or tracked by any particular radar depends on so many things, but the "stealth" level built into production aircraft like the F-117 and B-2 means that present radars will have a very hard time seeing it at all but very close ranges.

There's many variables and mostly shades of grey in that field.

It's interesting that the only information that the Pentagon wouldn't share with the GAO in it's assessment of the effectiveness of the Iraqi military in 2003 had to do with their ability to detect the F-117.

It raises the question as to whether the F-117 was altogether as stealthy as claimed.

I do know however that RIVET JOINT EC-135s spent A WHOLE LOT OF TIME composing an electronic Order of Battle SPECIFICALLY FOR THE F-117......which makes you wonder if it's really all that effective if they don't want to use it in high-density radar environments.

[winemaker]

Sorry TAE, standard practice is doppler airstream movement. THere is nothing one can hide the air stream disturbance by ANYTHING.

Dr. Forest Anderson was the P.I. for LANL/gov on this, alongside with UWB.

Angular orientation for diffraction is the basis of our stealth with a composite B.B. composite coating. What the coating doesn't absorb, it's hoped that it would be diffractive.

Modern weather radar can sense the airpath disturbance. ( ie doppler )
Long wavelength radar is effective against the F-117. Yugoslavia shot down one using very old soviet Long Lambda radar, since the BBCC isn't effective ( i.e. non-absorptive at these frequencies ), and subject only to diffraction. However, the return image is much stronger, due to the lack of absorption.

It was pretty much of an oops moment.
P.O.A is that deployment of stealth vehicles were mainly going to be deployed against 3rd world, ( kind of meaningless otherwise )

Ever get the "real" statistics for the viability of the Patriot Defense system. You'd be really really surprised at how bad it is.

[kingorpawn]

Originally Posted by theaustinescorts

It's been a long time since I had anything to do with low observables, but in my day the principle was that "stealth" incorporated into an aircraft does nothing to ELIMINATE it's radar cross-section, but it REDUCES it dramatically.

Whether a "stealth" aircraft can or cannot be detected or tracked by any particular radar depends on so many things, but the "stealth" level built into production aircraft like the F-117 and B-2 means that present radars will have a very hard time seeing it at all but very close ranges.

There's many variables and mostly shades of grey in that field.

It's interesting that the only information that the Pentagon wouldn't share with the GAO in it's assessment of the effectiveness of the Iraqi military in 2003 had to do with their ability to detect the F-117.

It raises the question as to whether the F-117 was altogether as stealthy as claimed.

I do know however that RIVET JOINT EC-135s spent A WHOLE LOT OF TIME composing an electronic Order of Battle SPECIFICALLY FOR THE F-117......which makes you wonder if it's really all that effective if they don't want to use it in high-density radar environments.

Well, first of all, the Nazis were the first to use stealth aircraft.
We got it from them.
Second of all, the stealth technology of the F-117 is already outdated. The Stealth technology used in the Osama bin Laden raid helicopter and the F-22 and F-35 are suppose to use more advanced stealth technology. Even our latest stealth drones are suppose to use the latest technologies.

My 2 pennies.

[theaustinescorts]

Originally Posted by winemaker

Sorry TAE, standard practice is doppler airstream movement. THere is nothing one can hide the air stream disturbance by ANYTHING.

Dr. Forest Anderson was the P.I. for LANL/gov on this, alongside with UWB.

Angular orientation for diffraction is the basis of our stealth with a composite B.B. composite coating. What the coating doesn't absorb, it's hoped that it would be diffractive.

Modern weather radar can sense the airpath disturbance. ( ie doppler )
Long wavelength radar is effective against the F-117. Yugoslavia shot down one using very old soviet Long Lambda radar, since the BBCC isn't effective ( i.e. non-absorptive at these frequencies ), and subject only to diffraction. However, the return image is much stronger, due to the lack of absorption.

It was pretty much of an oops moment.
P.O.A is that deployment of stealth vehicles were mainly going to be deployed against 3rd world, ( kind of meaningless otherwise )

Ever get the "real" statistics for the viability of the Patriot Defense system. You'd be really really surprised at how bad it is.

This I did not know.

The last time I knew anything about low observables was in the early 1980s when I participated in a small cost project involving the ATB/Northrup [later B-2] and I didn't know any of the information you have put forward.

Measure and counter-measure in air-defense is always moving, and it justifies a lot of spending.

Japan just concluded a 7B contract for the F-35....much domestic input I would imagine.

[Billy_Saul]

Originally Posted by kingorpawn

I just can't believe that even Obama will allow it to be taken

REPORT: IRAN HACKED, HIJACKED U.S. DRONE...

[theaustinescorts]

I've posted before that Iran's intelligence capabilities are formidable.

They've out-witted the CIA over and over again in Iraq, Lebanon and elsewhere.

The latest of these fiascos is the now public double-agent they put into a CIA network resulting in over a dozen CIA agents being caught and presumably killed.

Anyone who's dealt with Iranians shouldn't be surprised at any of this.

In my entire life I've never met a stupid Iranian. Nor have I ever met a broke one.

[kingorpawn]

Originally Posted by Billy_Saul

REPORT: IRAN HACKED, HIJACKED U.S. DRONE...

I think its possible if they had help from like China and Russia. I don't think
they could have done it on their own.

[kingorpawn]

Originally Posted by theaustinescorts

I've posted before that Iran's intelligence capabilities are formidable.

They've out-witted the CIA over and over again in Iraq, Lebanon and elsewhere.

The latest of these fiascos is the now public double-agent they put into a CIA network resulting in over a dozen CIA agents being caught and presumably killed.

Anyone who's dealt with Iranians shouldn't be surprised at any of this.

In my entire life I've never met a stupid Iranian. Nor have I ever met a broke one.

The only advantage the Iranians have is that its their neighborhood. They got everybody scared over there. Within the next 12 months, either the Israelis or the US will crush them. The world cannot afford to be wrong about Iran, so there's only one option left. The war drums are beating. They can't stop it now.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010...ran?intcmp=239

[kingorpawn]

U.S. Says Drone Crashed, Refuting Iran's Claim
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...272876554.html

[theaustinescorts]

In this prediction I am of course completely and totally correct and everyone else who claims that Israel will attack and destroy Iran's facilities are completely wrong.

So here's the challenge:

If Israel attacks and destroys Iran's facilities in the year 2012 I will never post on this board again..if...

D'Torrchia or KingorPawn pledge likewise regarding their proclaimations on this issue.

[DTorrchia]

Let's clarify....only Israel or does this include a joint U.S./Israel strike or a solo U.S. strike but with assistance from Israel in the way of intelligence etc?

[kingorpawn]

Originally Posted by theaustinescorts

In this prediction I am of course completely and totally correct and everyone else who claims that Israel will attack and destroy Iran's facilities are completely wrong.

So here's the challenge:

If Israel attacks and destroys Iran's facilities in the year 2012 I will never post on this board again..if...

D'Torrchia or KingorPawn pledge likewise regarding their proclamations on this issue.

What kind of a deal is that? I have a better idea. If I win, I'll have any one of your girls, current and future girls, anytime at my convenience for free until I get remarried which will probably be never and I'll even let you continue posting.
If I lose, I'll stop humiliating you on this site.

The deal should include Israel attacking before the end of 2011. There's still 2 weeks left.

I'm thinking that DT and myself have been too much for you, so you are trying to get rid of us.

[DTorrchia]

or MAYBE he's thinking he'll be having to take a vacation away from the board soon anyway so he has nothing to loose by making the bet??

[kingorpawn]

Originally Posted by DTorrchia

or MAYBE he's thinking he'll be having to take a vacation away from the board soon anyway so he has nothing to loose by making the bet??

Maybe that's it. We are wearing him out. On another thread, he recommended having me banned.