And Lusty Lad and WTF are arguing over whether GDP growth of 3% per annum is high

[WTF]

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

TWK knows not to panic sell. what do you know?

Was Ken Lay your mentor?

[WTF]

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

i bought netflix recently too for the same reason Ackman did except i'm going to let it recover and then see. and no the loss if i sold now won't be taking any steak off my plate, i prefer not to lose money i don't have to lose.

You bought Netflix!

I bet you're still waiting for Eron's stock to come back !

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

But how does it work when the numbers are negative? Does one remove the negative and then add it back at the end? It's pretty straight forward with addition/subtraction, but gets a bit whack with multiplication/division. Anyway. Current GDP is running backwards. More so if you compare it to the "expected" value.

Yes, a little confusing to me too. I prefer to look at year on year changes in quarterly GDP for that reason. Also I don't know how the seasonal adjustments work for the annualized QoQ data. They're correcting for things like Thanksgiving and New Years. That's another reason I like the YoY data. Take a look here, at the 5 year chart,

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RO1Q156NBEA

You can always look at inflation adjusted GDP, the $ number instead of % changes too. Again the 5 year chart is easiest on the eyes:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by Lucas McCain

That made me think of that billionaire hedge fund manager (I believe his name is Bill Ackman or something like that) who completely divested in Netflix after their earnings call and took a $400MM loss after he put in a little over a Bln to purchase shares just a few months prior.

I bet he slept like a baby that night and probably just shrugged and said to himself, "Oh well, you win some and you lose some."

I wish I could read his letter to his clients after doing that. I'm sure that would be a quick and very entertaining read. LOL

Ackman's the same guy who lost $1 billion shorting Herbalife. Sometimes I wonder - with a track record like that, how do these guys continue to attract investors to their hedge funds?

https://www.investopedia.com/news/bi...ng-against-it/

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Yes, a little confusing to me too. I prefer to look at year on year changes in quarterly GDP for that reason. Also I don't know how the seasonal adjustments work for the annualized QoQ data. They're correcting for things like Thanksgiving and New Years. That's another reason I like the YoY data. Take a look here, at the 5 year chart,

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RO1Q156NBEA

Hey Tiny, I think comparing each quarter's GDP output with the immediately preceding quarter (as the Bureau of Economic Analysis does) is far more useful than comparing it with the same year-earlier quarter.

Our GDP performance in 2020 illustrates why. Because of the pandemic, much of the economy was effectively shut down in Q2 of that year, before immediately reopening in Q3. So you had a steep falloff in production, followed by a dramatic bounce-back. The BEA reported that our real GDP shrank at an annualized rate of 31.2% in Q2. Then in Q3 it soared by 33.8% per annum. (See table in WYID's post #36.)

In other words, it was a dramatic V-shaped recovery, as one would expect given how the initial recession was artificially induced by the covid pandemic. Both quarterly numbers were record changes in our GDP - one down and one up.

As you no doubt understand (but math dunces like WTF and chungy don't grasp), in Q3 2020 we didn't get all the way back to our pre-pandemic level of output, despite the fact that the PERCENTAGE growth was higher than the PERCENTAGE loss experienced in Q2. There's a math asymmetry at work here. If a number goes down by 33%, from that level it would take a 50% increase to get all the way back up to the starting number.

Anyway, the BEA reports each quarterly GDP result compared with the immediately prior quarter. If they looked instead at the year-earlier quarter, they would have reported "negative" growth in Q3 2020 - which makes no sense since actual output was rapidly expanding.

P.S. If you do a deep dive into the BEA data, you can also find GDP prior to seasonal adjustment.

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by WTF

It ain't working for lustylad or bambino!

What's not working? Your limp noodle? My equipment is working fine.

Hope you find a cure asap. We wouldn't want your tranny boyfriend to walk out on you again in frustration.

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

You mad Bro?

To say with no context, that the US grew 30+% in QE 3, 2020, is absurd and disingenuous. Given the number of Trump worshippers in this Forum, I naturally wonder if Trumpian reverence caused you to cite such a worthless statistic.

Regarding Tesla, and the topic under discussion, I said they are not a growth stock. All companies grow, I didn't expect you to be so literal.

CORRECTIONS:

1. I'm not a "Trump worshipper". But you are sadly Trump-obsessed.

2. I never cite "worthless" statistics.

3. Tesla is very much a "growth" stock. If you stop posting stupid things all the time, I may alert you to when the company's growth slows down and it slips into the "value" category, which I expect will be sometime over the next decade or so.

[WTF]

Originally Posted by lustylad

Hey Tiny, I think comparing each quarter's GDP output with the immediately preceding quarter (as the Bureau of Economic Analysis does) is far more useful than comparing it with the same year-earlier quarter.

Our GDP performance in 2020 illustrates why. Because of the pandemic, much of the economy was effectively shut down in Q2 of that year, before immediately reopening in Q3. So you had a steep falloff in production, followed by a dramatic bounce-back. The BEA reported that our real GDP shrank at an annualized rate of 31.2% in Q2. Then in Q3 it soared by 33.8% per annum. (See table in WYID's post #36.)



.

Maybe you should explain this to Trump and bambino! I bet if I dug a bit , you too probably commented on how great the post pandemic economy was! Maybe if Trump and Biden hadn't injected so much stimulus into the economy we wouldn't be having this high inflation!

https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov...0-year-record/

ews broke this morning that real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 33.1% in the third quarter of 2020—beating expectations and setting an all-time record.

This jump in GDP is nearly double the previous record set 70 years ago.

Thanks to President Trump’s policies, the American economy is weathering the global pandemic better than any other major Western country, including those of Europe. As the Council of Economic Advisers wrote this morning:

While the pandemic hit every major economy around the world, the United States experienced the least severe economic contraction of any major Western economy in the first half of 2020, with the Euro Area economy’s contraction being 1.5 times as severe as the contraction of the U.S. economy.

Since April, America has gained over 11.4 million jobs, recovering more than half of those lost because of lockdowns. Retail sales are already above pre-pandemic levels, many construction and manufacturing jobs have returned, business activity is at a 20-month high, and new jobless claims fell to their lowest level this week since the beginning of the pandemic.

This “V-shaped” recovery is beating economist predictions and outpacing the slow recovery under former President Obama. After the 2008-09 recession, it took the Obama Administration 4 times as long to regain the same share of lost economic output.

[Lucas McCain]

Funny how some of these Trumpette clowns like to talk to themselves. Four straight posts to try to prove he knows something. Haha

[WTF]

Isn't it funny how folks like lustylad spin the exact same news differently depending on the occupant in the WH.

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by WTF

Maybe you should explain this to Trump and bambino! I bet if I dug a bit, you too probably commented on how (blah, blah, blah)...

Listen up, you stupid troll.

Stop making up things you imagine I MAY have said. If you have an issue with a specific post I actually made, then quote from it and explain exactly where you disagree.

Otherwise just stfu.

It's not my fault that you are too lazy, clumsy and retarded to figure out (after 46,500 eccie posts) how to use the eccie search function to find something your faulty memory vaguely mis-remembers another poster saying.

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by Lucas McCain

Funny how some of these Trumpette clowns like to talk to themselves. Four straight posts to try to prove he knows something. Haha

Did someone piss all over your 3 Ivy League degrees today, Lucy?

If I posted anything incorrect, please feel free to share the benefits of your expensive elite education with me by directly challenging my posts!

Oh wait, that might prove to everyone how much you DON'T know, wouldn't it?

You're evidently too stupid to notice I agreed with you in slamming Ackman.

[bambino]

Originally Posted by lustylad

Did someone piss all over your 3 Ivy League degrees today, Lucy?

If I posted anything incorrect, please feel free to share the benefits of your expensive elite education with me by directly challenging my posts!

Oh wait, that might prove to everyone how much you DON'T know, wouldn't it?

You're evidently too stupid to notice I agreed with you in slamming Ackman.

They just pissed on Clyde. He doesn’t have any degrees.

[Chung Tran]

Originally Posted by lustylad

CORRECTIONS:

1. I'm not a "Trump worshipper". But you are sadly Trump-obsessed.

2. I never cite "worthless" statistics.

3. Tesla is very much a "growth" stock. If you stop posting stupid things all the time, I may alert you to when the company's growth slows down and it slips into the "value" category, which I expect will be sometime over the next decade or so.

1. You are a big Trump supporter. Is that better, Bro?

2. Yes you do.

3. You suggest a growth stock becomes value, when it stops being a growth stock. Tesla is neither. It is way below it's all time high price. Yet it has a high multiple. Tesla is an AVOID.

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

1. You are a big Trump supporter. Is that better, Bro?

No, and I'm not your bro. Do you consider Tiny to be "a big Trump supporter"? Well, my level of support is similar to his. If you paid attention, you would know that.


2. Yes you do.

No I don't, and you can't provide a single example. That Q3 2020 GDP number came from the BEA, not me. And it's hardly "worthless". It reassured millions of Americans at the time that we were in a rapid recovery. To me that's worth a lot.


3. You suggest a growth stock becomes value, when it stops being a growth stock. Tesla is neither. It is way below it's all time high price. Yet it has a high multiple. Tesla is an AVOID.

Ok, you're right to suggest not every stock is one or the other. Plenty of stocks are in between value and growth. The reason growth stocks have high multiples is because investors are discounting future earnings growth. Just because a growth stock is "way below its all-time high price" doesn't mean it stops being a growth stock. It could just mean we're in a bear market or the company missed its latest guidance.

Growth stocks are more volatile than the rest of the market. They tend to outperform during market upturns, and get disproportionately shellacked in market downturns. Their prices often get ahead of themselves, partly due to momentum traders, and this makes them ripe for technical corrections.

Value stocks are those with unreasonably compressed P/E multiples. The ultimate value stock is one that is "worth more dead than alive". That means an investor could buy up all the outstanding shares, liquidate the balance sheet at market prices, and wind up with more in proceeds than he paid to acquire the firm.

While there is no hard & fast rule, companies that are enjoying YoY or annual revenue gains of 25%+ are generally considered to be in the "growth stock" category. Tesla's sales are nearly doubling each quarter, so it's clearly still a growth stock. Which of course doesn't necessarily mean it's a BUY if that pace of future growth is already reflected in the stock price.

https://hypebeast.com/2022/4/tesla-d...s-announcement