WHY UNEMPLOYMENT IS HIGH

[waverunner234]

Originally Posted by CPT Savajo

go back to the gold standard where paper money is actually money

I agree with most of what you said but going back to the gold standard? How do you do that when you have no clue how much gold is available?
With China's production increasing every year and total absence of control?

And now they can predict as I hear on news that unemployment is expected to be back at 5% in 2017?
They can't predict UE for next month, but in as much as 6 years? But they are pretty good in predicting UE for last month and last week, I have to admit.
My opinion is like I said in the opening post that UE will increase and no one can do anything about it unless you divide work more evenly over all workers.

[CPT Savajo]

I don't know how much gold is available but I would say that a great majority of the gold ever mined is still available today. It's not like people are just going to throw gold away because their getting tired of looking at it. Hyperinflate the currency and if the price of gold went to a trillion dollars an ounce we could pay off our debt with a mere few ounces of gold, declare a bank holiday, and then peg the dollar back to the gold standard. Of course a lot of nations holding our debt would probably be very pissed off if a scenario like that happened because we would just toss them a few pieces of gold and say, "here's your payment." As our companies/assests are getting seized overseas. If something like that were to play out nearly everyone would get wiped out, anyone holding paper money that is and it would probably happen at a much slower pace to where big inflation would cripple millionaires who have paper assests because prices for goods and services would have to rise dramatically. On top of that how could the world ever trust America with a printing press ever again?

I don't believe that unemployment is going to be at 5% in 2017, who ever came up with that figure is blind to what is going on in society. It must have been one of those privileged billionaires who came up with that figure. Looking at the current economic picture I would imagine that the future is going to be worse than what it is today for an overall forecast. It's not like things have been getting so much better since 2008, where has the growth came from? The service sector.

I see unemployment increasing as well, especially if big inflation takes a grip on the economy. Kids leaving college with massive amounts of student loan debt aren't going to be splurging since their in save mode, middle class familes are saving and taking haircuts in their 401k's which I think are bad ideas, people who don't have credit or are buried in credit card debt are hurting, and the poor are just getting poorer. All that saving slows things down plus it's a bad idea to save fiat currency thats constantly losing value. Look at what a savings account pays, next to nothing, the bank doesn't want your fiat currency. It's a liability for them. Dividing the work up between more workers will not solve the problem, sure you'll have more employees but the existing employees will take a paycut and the businesses have to pay all those fees for having those extra workers. Entrepreneuers are going to have to innovate in order to create jobs. Politicians are going to have to create laws that are favorable for society instead of the rich. We need a smaller government. The people will have to think outside of the box to make ends meet when things get really tough.

[Guest032315]

I just saw this thread. I researched this question at the beginning of the year...you have to start with where the jobs have been lost since 2007 (because back then, the unemployment rate was quite low). Any explanation that existed before 2007 and still exists (ie outsourcing) isn't a good one, whereas something that didn't exist before 2007 but has existed from end 2007 to today is a good one.

The best explanation I found was the drop in construction and housing. We built too many houses for about 7 years and now we have to stop and let demand catch up. That lost us almost 1 million jobs - directly. The money all those workers spent and all the affiliated industries that feed housing (transportation, building materials, real estate agents, settlement agents, lawyers) plus the decline in finance explain another 2-3 million jobs lost. The rest I found were a result of the actual recession that ensued - people who lost their jobs because the first 2 sets of people did, basically.
The current rate of construction and homebuilding was last hit in a normal economy back in 1930. When it returns to normal (say 1999 levels), so will the job situation.
If you want it to return faster, you need new industries that dont exist today.
The French solution doesnt work (even in France, where people believe in it) - it never would here where hardly anyone does.

[CPT Savajo]

Well I definitely don't see the financial sector making a comeback anytime soon. I read an artilce a few days ago that Bank of America was laying off 3500 employees. Oh and then a day or two later Buffett steps in and tries to save an insolvent zombie bank (Bank of America). Lets not forget that he's "to big to fail."

The housing sector seems to be a big mess as well. Of course markets are different all around the country.

[waverunner234]

CPT, Your view of currencies losing value goes limp. Where? If the dollar loses value which it has done since 10 years, that automatically means that other currencies gain value. At the moment that is the Yen, Swiss Franc, Australian and New Zealand dollar, since 10 years the Euro and British pound have gained against the dollar. Even with the bad debt situation in the EZ, Euro touched this morning $1.45. 10 years ago it was $0.88.
But in our modern world it stops somewhere. The dollar will never be zero.
China's gold output was 400 tonnes in the last 3 year, in 2014 they expect to hit 400 tonnes PER YEAR. That can only mean that in the long term gold prices will come under pressure and people will look for something else.
For me personally it makes no difference, the more volatile currencies move (up or down), the more bucks I make LOL
This morning was a lovely example, EuroDollar first 120 points down, then 170 point up, all in 3 hours. Thanks to Ben Bernanke speaking from his Jackson Hole retreat. (I love that guy, he's good for my wallet)

[CPT Savajo]

I'm not a currency trader but if history tells you anything all paper currencies can become worthless. Even looking back in U.S. history, we've had currencies become worthless and the dollar is certainly not immune to becoming worthless. The only country in Europe where you don't hear much mutiny coming out of is Switzerland!

So that was a 50 point swing from 120 down to 170 up. If your putting your hopes on news from Ben Bernanke I'd call you a trader, maybe a paper trader. There's a difference between traders and investors.

[waverunner234]

I am a trader, and Ben is just one piece of news among all the other news releases world wide, but one thing is sure, when he speaks, markets move. Same for Alan Greenspan in the past, same for when Obama speaks. Usually I don't trade news, Ben is an exception.

[waverunner234]

Oh and I hear a lot coming out of Switserland (and Japan) escpecially how they are trying to manipulate their currencies at the moment, but hey, its my living to know those things

[CPT Savajo]

Anyone can learn how to trade, especially if someone is financially astute. I don't trade on news because by the time it comes out publically it's already old news. Unless you know Ben Bernanke personally or are highly connected to the inner circle then yes, otherwise your on the "outside." Just like billions of people are, only the power elites are in the inside or unless your a member of the Fortune 100. If that was the case, we wouldn't even be having this conversation.

I have heard that a lot of people are jumping into Swiss money, like I said I don't know how to trade on the Forex but I do know how to trade stocks. I'm sure if I really wanted to learn how to do it, it wouldn't take me long to catch on.

[waverunner234]

Originally Posted by CPT Savajo

Anyone can learn how to trade, especially if someone is financially astute. I don't trade on news because by the time it comes out publically it's already old news. Unless you know Ben Bernanke personally or are highly connected to the inner circle then yes, otherwise your on the "outside." Just like billions of people are, only the power elites are in the inside or unless your a member of the Fortune 100. If that was the case, we wouldn't even be having this conversation.

I have heard that a lot of people are jumping into Swiss money, like I said I don't know how to trade on the Forex but I do know how to trade stocks. I'm sure if I really wanted to learn how to do it, it wouldn't take me long to catch on.

For your info, insider trading in the US will cost you prison time.
And anyone can learn how to trade? Is that why 70%+ traders lose their money and quit?

[heidilynnla]

I understand the economy is tough, but a large percentage of the unemployed are people who don't really want to work. Makes sense when you can make more money by sitting on your ass.

[CPT Savajo]

Originally Posted by waverunner234

For your info, insider trading in the US will cost you prison time.
And anyone can learn how to trade? Is that why 70%+ traders lose their money and quit?

Like thats ever stopped any of those big wigs! The ones that are waking up to the Ponzi Schemes are the people who have 401(k)'s which I don't have and will never have. At least some of them are waking up. You don't see me quiting.

[CPT Savajo]

Originally Posted by heidilynnla

I understand the economy is tough, but a large percentage of the unemployed are people who don't really want to work. Makes sense when you can make more money by sitting on your ass.

Your right, it is getting tough. Even for the ladies. What I mean by that is the other day I was checking out the backpages in a major city in texas and the ladies their are offering hourly rates for 60-100 roses. The max is topping out at probably 200 roses. A lot of competition. Especially since 08' when things started to spin out of control.

[Yerassman]

I agree, with all of our manufacturing jobs gone overseas. There are no jobs to go back to, period. One guy talked about the construction industry, cheap mexican labor is all that it is these days, working for 30 or 40 cents on the dollar of what the labor rate should be and sending the money back to mexico so they can retire to Mexico in 5 or 10 or 15 years.
Someone had better wake up and quickly, if it weren't for the nukes we would be screwed. This country is a mere shadow of what it was 50 years ago. Wake the F*CK up Washington.

[CPT Savajo]

Originally Posted by Yerassman

I agree, with all of our manufacturing jobs gone overseas. There are no jobs to go back to, period. One guy talked about the construction industry, cheap mexican labor is all that it is these days, working for 30 or 40 cents on the dollar of what the labor rate should be and sending the money back to mexico so they can retire to Mexico in 5 or 10 or 15 years.
Someone had better wake up and quickly, if it weren't for the nukes we would be screwed. This country is a mere shadow of what it was 50 years ago. Wake the F*CK up Washington.

No doubt they do need to wake up in Washington, the approval ratings give credit to that. I think this country need to go to a direct democracy where the people vote on the big issues because Congress is doing a horrible job. The only branch that I would give approval of is the judicial branch, thats because you never hear about these guys.

From what I've seen the construction industry has picked up a large Mexican workforce. The owners of those businesses just want to increase their profits to the absolute maximum. It really just boils down to greed. I don't think the jobs that left America are coming back, thats why they have all of these so called, "Emerging markets." What a fucking name, deindustrialize one nation and close your doors to set up shop in another country. All in an attempt to increase their bottom lines.