House Dims Have An Impeachment Problem

[gnadfly]

Polls have little meaning. You've got to have a crime. And for most of the nonDPSTs its got to be a meaningful and relatable crime.

Pelosi and Nadless have not produced a crime. In fact, they've admitted the are on hunt to find a crime. It's very Soviet-y "Show me the man and I'll show you the crime."

Like the "nuclear option" the House Dims will rue the day they've pursued this action.

[Lantern2814]

With Trump's support among blacks and Hispanics going up and up, the Dems have a real problem. Blacks and women are running away from the Dems due to their radical policies and the fact that Trump has greatly improved their economic situations. Should Trump pull 10% or more of the black vote, it could get ugly for whoever the Dems offer up very quickly.

[dilbert firestorm]

Originally Posted by gnadfly

the image is in reverse.

[dilbert firestorm]

Originally Posted by Lantern2814

With Trump's support among blacks and Hispanics going up and up, the Dems have a real problem. Blacks and women are running away from the Dems due to their radical policies and the fact that Trump has greatly improved their economic situations. Should Trump pull 10% or more of the black vote, it could get ugly for whoever the Dems offer up very quickly.

a few are, but its a slow movement.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by eccielover

I would check here if you are talking Gallup poll comparisons(you may have to pick the POTUS's for comparison if it doesn't prefill.

If you look closely, in recent weeks, Trump and Obama are neck in neck(as well as with Reagan) back and forth for this time in their respective presidencies. Again, hardly any indicator of an election a year and a half off yet.

https://news.gallup.com/interactives...campaign=tiles

And a strong comparison to Reagan's 1984 re-election could be made at this point based on the Dim candidates being fielded right now and I think we all remember how that election turned out for Mondale.

For whatever reasons, Trump has fallen behind Obama in approval ratings after both were in office for 854 days -- 50.3% for Obama, 41,2% for Trump.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/

I certainly agree with you and would warn anyone not to take such polls as anything written in concrete. The polls are simply a snapshot taken at a single point in time with many unknown factors certain to take place prior to the 2020 elections.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by dilbert firestorm

a few are, but its a slow movement.

While there is some indication that blacks and Hispanics have moved slightly to support of Trump, it is minimal. But I disagree that women are in any way moving to support Trump. Women voted for Clinton over Trump by 54-42 in 2016 according to exit polls.

https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/39...-job-in-office

Of course, there is reason to believe Trump is doing well among women voters.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...mp_140342.html

[Levianon17]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

For whatever reasons, Trump has fallen behind Obama in approval ratings after both were in office for 854 days -- 50.3% for Obama, 41,2% for Trump.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/

I certainly agree with you and would warn anyone not to take such polls as anything written in concrete. The polls are simply a snapshot taken at a single point in time with many unknown factors certain to take place prior to the 2020 elections.

Trump's 41.2% approval rating is quite good for a president who isn't a career politician and is controversial from his hair to every word he utters. I would spot Obama 15 to 20% right out of the blocks simply because he's black and thats one main reason why people voted for him to avoid being called racist. When it comes down to the wire Obama wasn't shit.

[KosherCowboy]

I can understand these polls are all we have to look at now as a barometer but they are so far out at this point can not really have much faith in them except for historical comparisons but what really matters is the polls when they start where it matters. Getting some voter sentiment in say California, Texas, New York, Maryland or Massachusetts is useless as those folks are more predictable as we know who they are voting for with close to a 99% accuracy.

What does matter is if they started polling the folks in the Rust Belt aka 'Blue Wall' ; Florida for sure going to be a huge Matzo Ball to take home and perhaps on the eastern seaboard Virginia and North Carolina and maybe outside shot at Georgia and I suspect Georgia is going to be a state Team Blue will sink tons of cash in to and visits to maybe steal and counter a state lost in Rust Belt as I do not see Trump losing one of those states in fact 1%-3%+ wins in all. Does not sound like much but added up plenty.

I hope Bernie stays in the race, even if his numbers are down it is enough to split the vote and the longer his supporters are attached to him the more likely they are to stay home on election day angry; Bernie if he does not drop out or get forced out is going to hand the election to Trump...

[omg_lol]

Polls are shit in general. You only have to look at the 2016 Election Day polls that had Hillary up 7-8 points. The press was tweaking their nipples at the prospects about being able to flip Texas or Arizona. Instead, Minnesota of all places is now a swing state where Trump came within closer margins than The Gipper for either of his races. Polling these days is another tool to create FUD or help to establish narratives. They haven’t resembled reality for years now.

Love him or hate him but Trump has effectively turned politics on its head since June 2015. Conventional mainstream politics hasn’t worked before with him and it won’t work here. In fact, impeachment proceedings are just the thing to electrify his base, especially since his record on immigration, repeal and replace, infrastructure, etc. is very poor overall. He’s been needing a hook to get the base back and impeachment is the likely ticket. It’s why he’s practically goading Pelosi and Co. to start going down that road. Nothing like a good us vs. them fight to rally the base.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by KosherCowboy

I can understand these polls are all we have to look at now as a barometer but they are so far out at this point can not really have much faith in them except for historical comparisons but what really matters is the polls when they start where it matters. Getting some voter sentiment in say California, Texas, New York, Maryland or Massachusetts is useless as those folks are more predictable as we know who they are voting for with close to a 99% accuracy.

What does matter is if they started polling the folks in the Rust Belt aka 'Blue Wall' ; Florida for sure going to be a huge Matzo Ball to take home and perhaps on the eastern seaboard Virginia and North Carolina and maybe outside shot at Georgia and I suspect Georgia is going to be a state Team Blue will sink tons of cash in to and visits to maybe steal and counter a state lost in Rust Belt as I do not see Trump losing one of those states in fact 1%-3%+ wins in all. Does not sound like much but added up plenty.

I hope Bernie stays in the race, even if his numbers are down it is enough to split the vote and the longer his supporters are attached to him the more likely they are to stay home on election day angry; Bernie if he does not drop out or get forced out is going to hand the election to Trump...

I don't disagree with most of what you are saying. At this point in time, 17+ months before the election, even if polls are 100% correct so much can change to impact the 2020 election.

There have been several polls done matching Trump against various Democratic candidates at a state level. Most polls done in Michigan agree with my opinion that the state will turn blue in 2020 with Trump vs. Biden. I have also said that there is a good chance Pennsylvania turns blue and the polls done so far also point in that direction. I just don't see Florida flipping at this point in time. Arizona possibly.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statew...ntial_election

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by omg_lol

Polls are shit in general. You only have to look at the 2016 Election Day polls that had Hillary up 7-8 points. The press was tweaking their nipples at the prospects about being able to flip Texas or Arizona. Instead, Minnesota of all places is now a swing state where Trump came within closer margins than The Gipper for either of his races. Polling these days is another tool to create FUD or help to establish narratives. They haven’t resembled reality for years now.

Love him or hate him but Trump has effectively turned politics on its head since June 2015. Conventional mainstream politics hasn’t worked before with him and it won’t work here. In fact, impeachment proceedings are just the thing to electrify his base, especially since his record on immigration, repeal and replace, infrastructure, etc. is very poor overall. He’s been needing a hook to get the base back and impeachment is the likely ticket. It’s why he’s practically goading Pelosi and Co. to start going down that road. Nothing like a good us vs. them fight to rally the base.

Actually most polls had Clinton winning the popular vote over Trump by 2%, which is what happened. Polls screwed up at the state level. Polls in 2018 and in other years have been very accurate.

Here is an analysis of the 2016 polling.

National polls were generally correct and accurate by historical standards. National polls were among the most accurate in estimating the popular vote since 1936. Collectively, they indicated that Clinton had about a 3 percentage point lead, and they were basically correct; she ultimately won the popular vote by 2 percentage points. Furthermore, the strong performance of national polls did not, as some have suggested, result from two large errors canceling (under-estimation of Trump support in heavily working class white states and over-estimation of his support in liberal-leaning states with sizable Hispanic populations).

State-level polls showed a competitive, uncertain contest… In the contest that actually mattered, the Electoral College, state-level polls showed a competitive race in which Clinton appeared to have a slim advantage. Eight states with more than a third of the electoral votes needed to win the presidency had polls showing a lead of three points or less (Trende 2016).[2] As Sean Trende noted, “The final RealClearPolitics Poll Averages in the battleground states had Clinton leading by the slimmest of margins in the Electoral College, 272-266.” The polls on average indicated that Trump was one state away from winning the election.

…but clearly under-estimated Trump’s support in the Upper Midwest. Polls showed Hillary Clinton leading, if narrowly, in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which had voted Democratic for president six elections running. Those leads fed predictions that the Democratic Blue Wall would hold. Come Election Day, however, Trump edged out victories in all three.

There are a number of reasons as to why polls under-estimated support for Trump. The explanations for which we found the most evidence are:

Real change in vote preference during the final week or so of the campaign. About 13 percent of voters in Wisconsin, Florida and Pennsylvania decided on their presidential vote choice in the final week, according to the best available data. These voters broke for Trump by near 30 points in Wisconsin and by 17 points in Florida and Pennsylvania.

Adjusting for over-representation of college graduates was critical, but many polls did not do it. In 2016 there was a strong correlation between education and presidential vote in key states. Voters with higher education levels were more likely to support Clinton. Furthermore, recent studies are clear that people with more formal education are significantly more likely to participate in surveys than those with less education. Many polls – especially at the state level – did not adjust their weights to correct for the over-representation of college graduates in their surveys, and the result was over-estimation of support for Clinton.

Some Trump voters who participated in pre-election polls did not reveal themselves as Trump voters until after the election, and they outnumbered late-revealing Clinton voters. This finding could be attributable to either late deciding or misreporting (the so-called Shy Trump effect) in the pre-election polls. A number of other tests for the Shy Trump theory yielded no evidence to support it.


https://www.aapor.org/Education-Reso...n-the-U-S.aspx

[KosherCowboy]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Actually most polls had Clinton winning the popular vote over Trump by 2%, which is what happened. Polls screwed up at the state level. Polls in 2018 and in other years have been very accurate.

Here is an analysis of the 2016 polling.

I think you are correct but I think problem in the Blue Wall States were the ' secret Trump voters' who in my opinion this election will actually ' come out of the closet.'

But I am just a voter, I know nothing of this except for the most part over times polls pretty on the money or near the trend line... Until this secret voter came out...

In the national polls considering so many states are already decided that secret Trump voter was not skewing the numbers..

and as always I think Ohio will call the election...

I care most about the economy, Wall Street and Health care and I can only vote on how I have been effected and on all three under Trump I have done well.

Virginia will be interesting, many displaced Yankees have turned it blue but their massive wealth increase might turn it red again. Liberal flips due to mass wealth increases with the upper middle class plus I think will play a huge role in turning the purple states red. At the end of the day America will vote with their wallets it has been proven to be the number one reason folks cast their vote... in most countries in fact..

So the Dems have one item to run on short of impeachment ( and removal) or an indictment ( not happening) which is to convince the Blue Wall folks they are worse off; good luck on that. Not to mention they got nothing but clowns, terrible chairman of the DNC, could they not have found a good new candidate middle of the road not to the left to run someone; how many years have they had?

[omg_lol]

A yuge and bigly factor is that the #NeverTrump movement is dead. Remember that the Libertarians and Evan McMullin siphoned off approximately 3.5% of the vote in 2016 because of the tantrum thrown by the likes of the Bushes, Mitt Romney, Bill Kristol, etc. Trump would have won Minnesota and New Hampshire if not for them. If most of those voters move back to the GOP, then 2020 becomes a lock for Trump. Lunchpail Joe isn’t going to convince working class Americans and the DNC will sabotage Bernie in 2020 like they did in 2016. Everyone else is single digits in polling for a reason. They will not be able to astroturf Buttigieg, Warren, and Harris to victories. They’ve tried and are failing.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by KosherCowboy

I think you are correct but I think problem in the Blue Wall States were the ' secret Trump voters' who in my opinion this election will actually ' come out of the closet.'

But I am just a voter, I know nothing of this except for the most part over times polls pretty on the money or near the trend line... Until this secret voter came out...

In the national polls considering so many states are already decided that secret Trump voter was not skewing the numbers..

and as always I think Ohio will call the election...

I care most about the economy, Wall Street and Health care and I can only vote on how I have been effected and on all three under Trump I have done well.

Virginia will be interesting, many displaced Yankees have turned it blue but their massive wealth increase might turn it red again. Liberal flips due to mass wealth increases with the upper middle class plus I think will play a huge role in turning the purple states red. At the end of the day America will vote with their wallets it has been proven to be the number one reason folks cast their vote... in most countries in fact..

So the Dems have one item to run on short of impeachment ( and removal) or an indictment ( not happening) which is to convince the Blue Wall folks they are worse off; good luck on that. Not to mention they got nothing but clowns, terrible chairman of the DNC, could they not have found a good new candidate middle of the road not to the left to run someone; how many years have they had?

Again I agree on most of your points. I agree that "secret" Trump voters came out of the closet and swung the election his way in 2016. I think in 2020 the Democrats will understand what happened in 2016 and really try to get out the voters in key states, which they did not do well in 2016. The 2018 midterms showed a huge increase in Democratic turnout.

The 3 major issues for voters right now are health care, immigration reform, and the economy. Usually when the economy is doing well, the president's approval rating is high. That is not the case today. To me that means other factors are coming in to play. Trump has done nothing on health care. Immigration reform is an area where he can most definitely improve his image if he comes up with a plan. So far, little has been done. The economy was doing just as well in November 2018 when Democrats picked up 40 House seats. And don't forget his character, which I believe will be the primary reason for his downfall if he loses in 2020.

There are a few states that could turn red from blue in 2020. Virginia is one and Minnesota and Nevada are others. On the other hand, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Florida could go from red to blue.

BTW. I have to add that prior to the 2018 midterm elections, every Trump supporter on this forum save maybe one predicted that Republicans would maintain control of the House and some even predicted an increase in the Republican majority. Their reasoning -- the economy.

Also, welcome back!! I met you many years ago (2005 time frame). You were in Cool River with another ASPD guy and 2 ladies. Back then my handle was NWNiceguy.

[LexusLover]

Originally Posted by gnadfly

I'm seeing where Pelosi is backing off her "no impeachment" promise and will ramp proceedings up in a few weeks. I guess the House Dims figured they can't pass any worthwhile laws, they can't run a candidate to defeat President Trump and AG Barr is getting very close to unraveling the charade.

Since everyone obsesses about "polls"!