The man who predicted Trump's victory says Democrats may have to impeach him to have a chance in 2020

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by bambino

I know you think that way. Only Trump states are in play. The ones Hillary barely won are solidly Democrat. I doubt it will work out that way. How can the Dems run a candidate who was more qualified than Hillary? According to Obama, the most qualified candidate in history!!!!!

Interesting. Of the 9 states I specifically mentioned, I am giving 5 to Trump right off the bat. I believe Michigan will go Democratic. The other 3 I won't predict at this point in time.

In Minnesota, Democrats won both Senate seats and the Governorship in 2018 by wide margins. I won't call it "solid" Democratic in 2020 but I would certainly say it leans Democratic.

I just don't see any other states other than NH possibly flipping in 2020. I say this by looking at 2018 election results and Trump approval ratings in those states. Certainly I could be wrong just as you could be wrong on stating Michigan and Pennsylvania will stay red in 2020.

As eccielover pointed out, 4 of the closest 5 races in 2016 went Trump's way and the 5th, NH, is of minor importance.

Hillary may have been more qualified than any of the 2020 Democratic contenders but she also carried more baggage than any of them. Many voters voted against Clinton rather than for Trump. There won't be that negativity towards whoever wins the Democratic nomination in my opinion.

[themystic]

Originally Posted by eccielover

Of the top 10 closest states in 2016, Trump had 6, Clinton 4. I think they all could be in play this early on.

1. Michigan 0.3 percent
Trump 47.6 percent, Clinton 47.3 percent
Difference: 13,080 votes

2. New Hampshire 0.4 percent
Clinton 47.6 percent, Trump 47.2 percent
Difference: 2,701 votes

3. Wisconsin 1 percent
Trump 47.9 percent, Clinton 46.9 percent
Difference: 27,257 votes

4. Pennsylvania 1.2 percent
Trump 48.8 percent, Clinton 47.6 percent
Difference: 68,236 votes

5. Florida 1.2 percent
Trump 49 percent, Clinton 47.8 percent
Difference: 114,455 votes

6. Minnesota 1.5 percent
Clinton 46.4 percent, Trump 44.9 percent
Difference: 44,470 votes

7. Nevada 2.4 percent
Clinton 47.9 percent, Trump 45.5 percent
Difference: 26,434 votes

8. Maine 2.7 percent
Clinton 47.9 percent, Trump 45.2 percent
Difference: 19,995 votes

9. North Carolina 3.8 percent
Trump 49.9 percent, Clinton 46.1 percent
Difference: 177,009 votes

10. Arizona 3.9 percent
Trump 49.3 percent, Clinton 45.4 percent
Difference: 91,682 votes



Right now it's the Dem primary voters in for a long haul. It's gonna be BRUTAL with a capital "B".

And the end of that race will tell the tale of exactly where the Dem voters are riding come 2020 General election.

Americans are sick of Trump. He is a hate machine. Lets see where the economy is in 2020. Ask an average Trump voter about his hateful talk and they almost always say "good economy". No I don't want the economy to go down

[Levianon17]

Originally Posted by oeb11

https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/28/polit...020/index.html
Allan Lichtman doesn't mind swimming against the political tide.Lichtman, a professor at American University in Washington, DC, was the most prominent voice predicting Donald Trump's victory in the run-up to the 2016 election. When Trump won, it marked the 9th(!) straight presidential election where Lichtman had correctly predicted the Electoral College winner. (That's all the way back to 1984, for you math wizards.)






In short: Lichtman is someone the political world should listen to. So I reached out to him on Tuesday to see what he thought of Trump's current chances at a second term next November.
Here's what he told me:
"Trump wins again in 2020 unless six of 13 key factors turn against him. I have no final verdict yet because much could change during the next year. Currently, the President is down only three keys: Republican losses in the midterm elections, the lack of a foreign policy success, and the president's limited appeal to voters."
Lichtman's prediction system is based on 13 true/false statements about the party that holds the White House. If six or more of the statement are false, the incumbent loses. If less than six are false, the incumbent wins. Simple!
Here are Lichtman's 13 criteria -- via his book "Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016" and as summarized by WaPo's Peter Stevenson:
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2 Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Which brings me to the most intriguing -- and outside-the-box -- suggestion from my conversation with Lichtman: He believes Democrats in the House not only should be pushing to impeach Trump, but may need to in order for their nominee to win in 2020.
Again, here's Lichtman:
"Democrats are fundamentally wrong about the politics of impeachment and their prospects for victory in 2020. An impeachment and subsequent trial would cost the president a crucial fourth key -- the scandal key -- just as it cost Democrats that key in 2000. The indictment and trial would also expose him to dropping another key by encouraging a serious challenge to his re-nomination. Other potential negative keys include the emergence of a charismatic Democratic challenger, a significant third-party challenge, a foreign policy disaster, or an election-year recession. Without impeachment, however, Democratic prospects are grim."


Which is VERY counter to the conventional wisdom on impeachment espoused by Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other prominent Democrats. Their thinking is that by impeaching Trump, Democrats turn him into a victim -- a role he relishes. And with the Republican-controlled Senate on record as planning to kill any impeachment attempt, most establishment Democrats view the whole thing very, very skeptically.
Of course, that view is informed by the moment -- and the politics of it. Polling suggests most Americans don't support impeachment and already believe Democrats have done enough investigating. Lichtman's 13 factors, on the other hand, don't deal in day-to-day politics or polling. They're based in broad, structural concepts he developed by studying every presidential election from 1860-1980.
Who's right? Who knows! But Lichtman's success in predicting winners means Democrats shouldn't simply ignore his advice on impeachment.







Lichtman was on OANN Tipping Point with Liz Wheeler last nite - and stated that Trump has 3 of the 13 criteria against him at this moment - if it goes to six elements against trump - prediction is he loses the election in 2020 per Lichtman's system.
an interesting take on predictions - and not based strictly on Polls with all the error possibilities.

SR - your comments would be appreciated. Both on Nov 2020 predictions and how Impeachment would affect the election
My guess is Pelosi is in agreement with Lichtman about Impeachment - and is waiting until the proper moment just before the election to have the house vote Articles of Impeachment against Trump.
I think it will backfire on them.


And Now - for the Axis of Socialism and non-constructive "you're a Nazi comments"!!!!!

Isn't that something. In order for the Democrats to win they need Trump out of the way. That tells me Trump is doing an effective job one the democrats can't match, lol.

[themystic]

Originally Posted by eccielover

Of the top 10 closest states in 2016, Trump had 6, Clinton 4. I think they all could be in play this early on.

1. Michigan 0.3 percent
Trump 47.6 percent, Clinton 47.3 percent
Difference: 13,080 votes

2. New Hampshire 0.4 percent
Clinton 47.6 percent, Trump 47.2 percent
Difference: 2,701 votes

3. Wisconsin 1 percent
Trump 47.9 percent, Clinton 46.9 percent
Difference: 27,257 votes

4. Pennsylvania 1.2 percent
Trump 48.8 percent, Clinton 47.6 percent
Difference: 68,236 votes

5. Florida 1.2 percent
Trump 49 percent, Clinton 47.8 percent
Difference: 114,455 votes

6. Minnesota 1.5 percent
Clinton 46.4 percent, Trump 44.9 percent
Difference: 44,470 votes

7. Nevada 2.4 percent
Clinton 47.9 percent, Trump 45.5 percent
Difference: 26,434 votes

8. Maine 2.7 percent
Clinton 47.9 percent, Trump 45.2 percent
Difference: 19,995 votes

9. North Carolina 3.8 percent
Trump 49.9 percent, Clinton 46.1 percent
Difference: 177,009 votes

10. Arizona 3.9 percent
Trump 49.3 percent, Clinton 45.4 percent
Difference: 91,682 votes



Right now it's the Dem primary voters in for a long haul. It's gonna be BRUTAL with a capital "B".

And the end of that race will tell the tale of exactly where the Dem voters are riding come 2020 General election.

Michigan will stay Trump

Wisconsin, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina will go Democrat

[LexusLover]

Originally Posted by themystic

Americans are sick of Trump.

How would you know? You're too busy listening to yourself jabber.

[LexusLover]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

In Minnesota, Democrats won both Senate seats and the Governorship in 2018 by wide margins. I won't call it "solid" Democratic in 2020 but I would certainly say it leans Democratic.

A Republican presidential candidate won Texas during the years that the Democrats managed a stranglehold on Texas politics and elected offices. Local/state elections are not in and of themselves a deciding factor in how the state will vote in the POTUS election.

The simple question is: were any of the DNC LOONS running in 2018?

One was in 2016.

The DNC has been overwhelmed when it moves to the left ...

Stevenson
McGovern
Mondale
Dukakis
Gore
Kerry
HillariousNoMore
2020: Just name one!

[LexusLover]

Originally Posted by themystic

Wisconsin, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina will go Democrat

Biden?
Harris?
Warren?
Bernie?

[Levianon17]

Originally Posted by themystic

Americans are sick of Trump. He is a hate machine. Lets see where the economy is in 2020. Ask an average Trump voter about his hateful talk and they almost always say "good economy". No I don't want the economy to go down

It's funny how Trump is a hate machine but the Liberals are doing all the hating, lol.

[LexusLover]

Originally Posted by Levianon17

It's funny how Trump is a hate machine but the Liberals are doing all the hating, lol.

That's all they have is "hate" .... NO FACTS!

That's why MysteriousNoMore continuously states: "You don't know your stuff" ....!!!!!! He has NO STUFF! Just his worthless opinion and lameass attempts at familial insults.

Now his bunkbuddy Lucas has shown up to join him for a twosome! They are awaiting JR for that thong3some!

[bambino]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Interesting. Of the 9 states I specifically mentioned, I am giving 5 to Trump right off the bat. I believe Michigan will go Democratic. The other 3 I won't predict at this point in time.

In Minnesota, Democrats won both Senate seats and the Governorship in 2018 by wide margins. I won't call it "solid" Democratic in 2020 but I would certainly say it leans Democratic.

I just don't see any other states other than NH possibly flipping in 2020. I say this by looking at 2018 election results and Trump approval ratings in those states. Certainly I could be wrong just as you could be wrong on stating Michigan and Pennsylvania will stay red in 2020.

As eccielover pointed out, 4 of the closest 5 races in 2016 went Trump's way and the 5th, NH, is of minor importance.

Hillary may have been more qualified than any of the 2020 Democratic contenders but she also carried more baggage than any of them. Many voters voted against Clinton rather than for Trump. There won't be that negativity towards whoever wins the Democratic nomination in my opinion.

Webb was far more qualified. Hillary was a farce. She was handed a safe Senate seat and negotiated the SOS gig with Obama for her support after he beat her. She failed miserably as SOS.

[oeb11]

Thanks SR

It is a long time until Nov 2020 - DPST's have no clue what radical Marxist they will nominate, or even if there will be One DPST party.

Biden - won't cut it - He does not appeal to the radicals , is an old white male, and his physical and mental frailty shows - even his wife jill is a apologizer for him.


Wait until Sept -Oct 2020 and compare the polls with Lichtman's model
That will be interesting.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by LexusLover

A Republican presidential candidate won Texas during the years that the Democrats managed a stranglehold on Texas politics and elected offices. Local/state elections are not in and of themselves a deciding factor in how the state will vote in the POTUS election.

The simple question is: were any of the DNC LOONS running in 2018?

One was in 2016.

The DNC has been overwhelmed when it moves to the left ...

Stevenson
McGovern
Mondale
Dukakis
Gore
Kerry
HillariousNoMore
2020: Just name one!

To answer your question, several "DNC loons" ran and won in 2018:

Sanders
Gillibrand
Klobuchar
Warren

Gore was hardly "overwhelmed" in 2000, losing Florida, and thus the electoral college, by a handful of votes.

McGovern, Mondale, and Kerry were running against incumbents, who rarely lose. Yet Kerry lost by only 35 electoral votes in 2004. Hillary lost a tightly fought race, losing 3 states by small margins and giving Trump the victory. So to recap we have Clinton and Obama who won, Hillary and Gore who lost close elections, and McGovern and Mondale who were "overwhelmed".

Certainly local/state elections are not always indicative of what will happen in a presidential election. But sometimes they are. Whether they will be in 2020 is to be determined.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by oeb11

Thanks SR

It is a long time until Nov 2020 - DPST's have no clue what radical Marxist they will nominate, or even if there will be One DPST party.

Biden - won't cut it - He does not appeal to the radicals , is an old white male, and his physical and mental frailty shows - even his wife jill is a apologizer for him.


Wait until Sept -Oct 2020 and compare the polls with Lichtman's model
That will be interesting.

You might want to check out Rachel Bitecofer who also does political modeling and was the most accurate modeler in the 2018 midterm elections:

https://www.inquisitr.com/5587158/bi...win-democrats/

http://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/2019/07/0...tion-forecast/

[Levianon17]

Originally Posted by LexusLover

That's all they have is "hate" .... NO FACTS!

That's why MysteriousNoMore continuously states: "You don't know your stuff" ....!!!!!! He has NO STUFF! Just his worthless opinion and lameass attempts at familial insults.

Now his bunkbuddy Lucas has shown up to join him for a twosome! They are awaiting JR for that thong3some!

You're exactly right.

[Tom Stanks]

You Trump haters will still be clamoring for his impeachment for another 5 years. How about getting a job or something.