For 2024, The Dems Win No Matter What.

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Gheeze! My last post musta been almost 1,000 words. I coulda just posted this from the UFC fight last night.. Sorry about that folks My bad.




The winners circle
Back to front: Iron Mike (The Champ), Kid Rock, Trump, Dana White - all thumbs up

[Salty Again]

... Some o' the other lads here just don't get it, mate.

Either got scared and weak-minded "conservatives" or
sad liberals who act as-if they enjoy seeing the country
devolve with misery and destruction.

And they're all SCARED of Trump!

They know when Trump Wins - everything surely goes back
to the way it was! ... A Better economy...
The best chance for World Peace... and more prosperity
for the American people... Not to mention - the move
toward energy independence... What the country REALLY wants!

... TRUMP 2024! ...

##### Salty

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Originally Posted by Salty Again

...
... TRUMP 2024! ...

...

Much like racing improves the breed, let me turbo charge that a might;
... TRUMP 2024! ... Because, fuck your widdle feewins!


Not yours personally...

[Texas Contrarian]

Originally Posted by Salty Again

... Some o' the other lads here just don't get it, mate.

Either got scared and weak-minded "conservatives" or
sad liberals who act as-if they enjoy seeing the country
devolve with misery and destruction.

And they're all SCARED of Trump!

They know when Trump Wins - everything surely goes back
to the way it was! ... A Better economy...
The best chance for World Peace... and more prosperity
for the American people... Not to mention - the move
toward energy independence... What the country REALLY wants!

... TRUMP 2024! ...

##### Salty

Really?

Pretty sure I "get it" just as well as anyone here.

As befitting my last name, I often have a contrarian take on a whole range of issues, not just on finance and markets.

Here's my take:

Like Jackie, I think Trump has very little chance of winning the 2024 election if nominated. In fact, it may be a difficult landscape for any Republican candidate, although I think someone less incoherent and less noxious might have a pretty fair shot, especially if the economy is looking shaky in Q3 2024.

However, if Trump fails to win the nomination and doesn't suddenly develop a severe health problem, he'll probably try to torpedo the Republican nominee's candidacy, just like he threw away the two Republican Senate seats in Georgia a couple of years ago. And, since he doesn't care about much other than his own self-aggrandizement, many observers think he may even run as a third-party candidate, thus guaranteeing a Democratic victory.

Recall also that Republican-appointed justices initiated a political kamikaze mission last year when deciding Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization. Then, as though that wasn't damaging enough, a rabidly anti-abortion federal judge recently saw fit to yank the FDA approval for mifepristone, originally granted 23 years ago.

These may have been base-pleasing acts, but Republicans will pay a severe price at the polls for years to come. Tens of millions of angry women will be energized as never before.

If you're inclined to start snarking at me and calling me "pro-Biden" or a "libtard," I suggest that you save your keystrokes. I am a center-right independent with conservative/libertarian views on almost all topical issues.

Despite the extreme dishonesty, dysfunction, and irresponsibility of today's Democratic Party, it still holds the higher cards politically, owing to the opposition's self-immolation.

We need a leader who can, at the very least, stand athwart the headlong rush to an authoritarian, frighteningly dysfunctional, and extremely expensive brand of "social democracy" and effectively yell "STOP!!"

But that takes real leadership. Good luck finding it over the horizon in today's wrecked political landscape!

[Jacuzzme]

Trump would win a normal election, the kind we had for ~240 years, like he did in 2020. His chances are slim to none otherwise, unless he takes a play from the democrat book and employs tens of thousands of ballot gatherers (paid by the ballot). Most republicans are too moral, and busy, to do it though, so it likely won’t happen.

If it looks to dems that he’s even close to being able to overcome their ballot stuffing, they’ll probably Arkancide him. Trump is a threat to the power of global governance, there’s no way they let the people put him in office again.

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

When you say women that will be energize, do you mean the ones that allow men in their daughter's locker rooms?!? Ain't it about time they man-up?!?

Well... it's always a horse race in the primaries, but ATM Trump is Secretariat and everybody else is glue-factory class dogs.

But as a Contrarian's contrarian: Did Dobbs ever really make sense under the shabby guise that it purportedly did, i.e. whole cloth, ridiculous BS as it was?!?

I would never snark at you. I would to the CF-Ts because - Fuck their widdle feewins. Plus I do enjoy the sounds of their widdle heads popping at the thought of Trump 2024. Kinda like in When Mars Attacks.They fear him and it's delicious. Newsome versus De Santis?!? Faggit about it!

If''n you think that Trump can't stand stalwart against the idiocy of the CF-Ts, then the Contrarian moniker should be striking from your moniker and a couple stripes stripped - and your rank reduced to Buck Private Midnight ;-) But I mean that in a good way...

But I have no earthly idea how you might conclude or determine that our country is on a fiscally sound or sustaining path ATM. Never mind the 2nd N-word. Have you seen the latest poop on Commercial real estate occupancy and loans? Pretty freak'n sobering - IMMHO

Originally Posted by Texas Contrarian

Really?

Pretty sure I "get it" just as well as anyone here.

As befitting my last name, I often have a contrarian take on a whole range of issues, not just on finance and markets.

Here's my take:

Like Jackie, I think Trump has very little chance of winning the 2024 election if nominated. In fact, it may be a difficult landscape for any Republican candidate, although I think someone less incoherent and less noxious might have a pretty fair shot, especially if the economy is looking shaky in Q3 2024.

However, if Trump fails to win the nomination and doesn't suddenly develop a severe health problem, he'll probably try to torpedo the Republican nominee's candidacy, just like he threw away the two Republican Senate seats in Georgia a couple of years ago. And, since he doesn't care about much other than his own self-aggrandizement, many observers think he may even run as a third-party candidate, thus guaranteeing a Democratic victory.

Recall also that Republican-appointed justices initiated a political kamikaze mission last year when deciding Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization. Then, as though that wasn't damaging enough, a rabidly anti-abortion federal judge recently saw fit to yank the FDA approval for mifepristone, originally granted 23 years ago.

These may have been base-pleasing acts, but Republicans will pay a severe price at the polls for years to come. Tens of millions of angry women will be energized as never before.

If you're inclined to start snarking at me and calling me "pro-Biden" or a "libtard," I suggest that you save your keystrokes. I am a center-right independent with conservative/libertarian views on almost all topical issues.

Despite the extreme dishonesty, dysfunction, and irresponsibility of today's Democratic Party, it still holds the higher cards politically, owing to the opposition's self-immolation.

We need a leader who can, at the very least, stand athwart the headlong rush to an authoritarian, frighteningly dysfunctional, and extremely expensive brand of "social democracy" and effectively yell "STOP!!"

But that takes real leadership. Good luck finding it over the horizon in today's wrecked political landscape!

[Salty Again]

Originally Posted by Texas Contrarian

Really?

Pretty sure I "get it" just as well as anyone here.

As befitting my last name, I often have a contrarian take on a whole range of issues, not just on finance and markets.

Here's my take:


We need a leader who can, at the very least, stand athwart the headlong rush to an authoritarian, frighteningly dysfunctional, and extremely expensive brand of "social democracy" and effectively yell "STOP!!"

But that takes real leadership. Good luck finding it over the horizon in today's wrecked political landscape!

... And THAT'S Trump - He's the leader to do it! ...

#### Salty

[texassapper]

Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

Have you seen the latest poop on Commercial real estate occupancy and loans? Pretty freak'n sobering - IMMHO

Yeah.. the RE market is about to explode... same with the Car market... Lots of dealers are loosing their floor loans... that's what allows them to buy from the brands.... when that happens they basically might as well shut down.

Signs are ALL OVER the place about the impending financial crash thats coming...

Shipping container purchasing, Ship space purchasing from China to the US has to be bought by now in order to get goods onto ships to get them here in time fro Black Friday and Christmas... (it ain't looking pretty)

Lots of leading indicators that the shits about to hit the rotary air displacement device.

[Texas Contrarian]

Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

If''n you think that Trump can't stand stalwart against the idiocy of the CF-Ts, then the Contrarian moniker should be striking from your moniker and a couple stripes stripped - and your rank reduced to Buck Private Midnight ;-) But I mean that in a good way...

LOL ... Sorry, not a chance in hell that I'll be forfeiting the "contrarian status" anytime soon. And anyone who thinks I'm going to allow any stripes to be stripped from my sleeves needs to understand that the only stripping I allow in my presence is performed by stunningly attractive young women!

And the reason I think Donald isn't remotely up to the task of standing stalwart against the big spenders in Congress and all the "deep state" apparatchiks in the permanent bureaucracies is that he didn't do so when given a chance to do so six years ago.

For starters, did you happen to notice the 2017-2019 debt-accumulation trajectory? It wasn't good! (Of course, it's been much worse over the last two years. Such are the consequences of throwing away the House and Senate as well as a presidency.)

And what happens when Trump attacks the "deep state." Unfortunately, he's always been long on bluster and unwarranted braggadocio, but short on beneficial accomplishments. The deep state won't be satisfied with lunch. It will eat his breakfast and dinner, too.

Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

But I have no earthly idea how you might conclude or determine that our country is on a fiscally sound or sustaining path ATM. Never mind the 2nd N-word. Have you seen the latest poop on Commercial real estate occupancy and loans? Pretty freak'n sobering - IMMHO

Huh?? When did I claim or in any way insinuate that I think the nation is on a fiscally sustainable path. I thought I'd noted on a number of occasions over the last couple of years that we're facing serious problems as a consequence of extreme fiscal recklessness.

And, yes, I've seen plenty of "poop" on CRE mortgages, since I'm a long-time real estate investor. Thankfully for me, I refinanced apartment loans in late 2020-early 2021 at sub-3% rates, fixed for 10 years. Many others are not so fortunate, facing the necessity of servicing variable rate loans or the need to refi originally lower interest rate loans this year or next. Many investors are also unfortunate enough to own class B/B- (or lower) office buildings suffering from tanking occupancy rates and are SOL.

CRE loans reside disproportionately on the books of regional banks rather than on those of the much larger and better-capitalized TBTFs. That's why I think we're likely to see quite a few more failures and forced consolidations during the next 6-12 months.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by Texas Contrarian

Really?

Pretty sure I "get it" just as well as anyone here.

As befitting my last name, I often have a contrarian take on a whole range of issues, not just on finance and markets.

Here's my take:

Like Jackie, I think Trump has very little chance of winning the 2024 election if nominated. In fact, it may be a difficult landscape for any Republican candidate, although I think someone less incoherent and less noxious might have a pretty fair shot, especially if the economy is looking shaky in Q3 2024.

However, if Trump fails to win the nomination and doesn't suddenly develop a severe health problem, he'll probably try to torpedo the Republican nominee's candidacy, just like he threw away the two Republican Senate seats in Georgia a couple of years ago. And, since he doesn't care about much other than his own self-aggrandizement, many observers think he may even run as a third-party candidate, thus guaranteeing a Democratic victory.

Recall also that Republican-appointed justices initiated a political kamikaze mission last year when deciding Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization. Then, as though that wasn't damaging enough, a rabidly anti-abortion federal judge recently saw fit to yank the FDA approval for mifepristone, originally granted 23 years ago.

These may have been base-pleasing acts, but Republicans will pay a severe price at the polls for years to come. Tens of millions of angry women will be energized as never before.

If you're inclined to start snarking at me and calling me "pro-Biden" or a "libtard," I suggest that you save your keystrokes. I am a center-right independent with conservative/libertarian views on almost all topical issues.

Despite the extreme dishonesty, dysfunction, and irresponsibility of today's Democratic Party, it still holds the higher cards politically, owing to the opposition's self-immolation.

We need a leader who can, at the very least, stand athwart the headlong rush to an authoritarian, frighteningly dysfunctional, and extremely expensive brand of "social democracy" and effectively yell "STOP!!"

But that takes real leadership. Good luck finding it over the horizon in today's wrecked political landscape!

Great post.

I eat lunch about once a month with a very politically astute, far right conservative. He worked in Washington, contributed a lot (by most of our standards) to the campaigns of Trump and other Republicans. And was instrumental in helping our local congressional representative gain office. In the past he’s been on the same page with Salty and WYID on alleged election fraud in 2020.

Anyway he now believes Republicans have little chance of winning the Presidency in 2024. He recognizes that Trump probably can’t get enough votes to win the general election. And believes Trump will torpedo the Party if someone else gets the Republican nomination.

He’s pro-life, but also believes the Supreme Court abortion decision is going to hurt Republicans in 2024.

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Great post.

I eat lunch about once a month with a very politically astute, far right conservative. He worked in Washington, contributed a lot (by most of our standards) to the campaigns of Trump and other Republicans. And was instrumental in helping our local congressional representative gain office. In the past he’s been on the same page with Salty and WYID on alleged election fraud in 2020.

Anyway he now believes Republicans have little chance of winning the Presidency in 2024. He recognizes that Trump probably can’t get enough votes to win the general election. And believes Trump will torpedo the Party if someone else gets the Republican nomination.

He’s pro-life, but also believes the Supreme Court abortion decision is going to hurt Republicans in 2024.

is your conservative friend basing that on Trump as the nominee? with TC's forgiveness i'll take a contrarian view on that! it does have to break just right for that to happen, and it assumes Biden runs again so his record of abject failure can be his "platform". remember why the Democrats hid Joey in his basement. and even then he was a gaffe machine. also many democrats and independents polled post election indicated they wouldn't have voted for Biden if they'd known more about the many allegations the press covered up none the least of which was Hunter Biden's laptop and more such as Tara Reid's allegations. something like 1 in 6, more than enough to turn the results to Trump.


now of course they know what they got (and why the Democrats kept the progressive influence on Biden in exchange to nominate him hidden) and a lot of moderate Democrats (the vast base of the party) and independents feel hoodwinked, and they were. how likely are they to repeat a mistake now that they know they made a mistake (by deliberate disinformation by the press)?



after nearly 3 years of total failure by Biden with his idiotic initiatives and wild spending on progressive green nonsense among other things it's unlikely Joey will make any real turnarounds especially in the economy and the energy sector. and then there is Hunter and the big guy's 10 percent. not even the NY Times dismisses the laptop as "russkie disinformation" anymore and they along with many others have verified much of the contents of the emails on the laptop. what more will come from this now that republicans control the house? plenty if they want to win the White House.



so given the unmitigated disaster Biden is, i take a contrarian view that Trump can win. that said, a better candidate would have a better chance. not "anyone but Trump" but the right candidate. someone who champions many of Trump's platforms such as border security and putting America's interests above all else. i find the left's false contention that such a thing is "fascist" amusing. and what helped put the United States on a downward spiral where we are the latter day Roman Empire in corrupt decline, trying to lead the free world rather than America first and if we don't reverse that and in "authoritarian" fashion we'll collapse just as the Romans did. we have a long way to fall.

[Charley3]

Originally Posted by Jackie S

This NY indictment charade is all about insuring a Democrat win in 2024.

If they succeed in prosecuting Trump, his base will come out in droves during the primaries, insuring Trump the nomination. He will loose to what ever corpse the Dems run.

If Trump beats the rap, he will be insured of the nomination. However, those same college educated white women will still hate his guts. It would be close, but not enough lazy ass white men who would rather be fishing will show up to vote to off set the white woman vote.

If the Republicans decide to run a third candidate on some independent ticket, the Dems win 80 percent of the Electoral College.

The only way the the Republicans win is for Trump to bow out and tell his supporters that no matter what, vote, and vote Republican.

Excellent post. That blind 30% that he has this weird spell over simply won’t give it up unless he tells them to. It’s bizarre.
Trump may kill the GOP before he’s done.

Bad news is his huge ego won’t allow him to bow out. He’ll run, lose, blame everyone but himself and that 30% will go nuts again.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

is your conservative friend basing that on Trump as the nominee?

I'm not sure I understand the question, but he believes Republicans lose regardless of whether Trump's the nominee.

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

so given the unmitigated disaster Biden is, i take a contrarian view that Trump can win. that said, a better candidate would have a better chance. not "anyone but Trump" but the right candidate. someone who champions many of Trump's platforms such as border security and putting America's interests above all else. i find the left's false contention that such a thing is "fascist" amusing. and what helped put the United States on a downward spiral where we are the latter day Roman Empire in corrupt decline, trying to lead the free world rather than America first and if we don't reverse that and in "authoritarian" fashion we'll collapse just as the Romans did. we have a long way to fall.

There's a good article in the Economist this week about America's place in the world that's encouraging. It notes that the USA still accounts for about the same % of the world's GDP today as it did in 1990, if you don't adjust for purchasing power. This is surprising because you'd expect we would have shrunk, in % terms, because of growth in China and other emerging markets.

Basically, we're kicking Europe's and Japan's asses. Their GDP's as a % of World GDP are shrinking. The article points out our productivity is higher, and our population has increased more then theirs, in large part because of immigration.

They say that other than financial centers and petrostates, the USA has the highest per capita income in the world when you adjust for purchasing power.

One thing they don't note, I believe a lot of our comparative success is due to having a larger private sector and smaller government. You can give some of the credit to the Republicans, including Trump, who passed the tax cuts, thus leaving more money in the hands of the people and businesses. Although I agree with TC, they needed to follow it with more efficient spending, to lower the deficits, but didn't.

[Texas Contrarian]

Originally Posted by Tiny

I eat lunch about once a month with a very politically astute, far right conservative. He worked in Washington, contributed a lot (by most of our standards) to the campaigns of Trump and other Republicans. And was instrumental in helping our local congressional representative gain office. In the past he’s been on the same page with Salty and WYID on alleged election fraud in 2020.

Anyway he now believes Republicans have little chance of winning the Presidency in 2024. He recognizes that Trump probably can’t get enough votes to win the general election. And believes Trump will torpedo the Party if someone else gets the Republican nomination.

He’s pro-life, but also believes the Supreme Court abortion decision is going to hurt Republicans in 2024.

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

is your conservative friend basing that on Trump as the nominee? with TC's forgiveness i'll take a contrarian view on that! it does have to break just right for that to happen, and it assumes Biden runs again so his record of abject failure can be his "platform". remember why the Democrats hid Joey in his basement. and even then he was a gaffe machine. also many democrats and independents polled post election indicated they wouldn't have voted for Biden if they'd known more about the many allegations the press covered up none the least of which was Hunter Biden's laptop and more such as Tara Reid's allegations. something like 1 in 6, more than enough to turn the results to Trump.

Originally Posted by Tiny

I'm not sure I understand the question, but he believes Republicans lose regardless of whether Trump's the nominee.

I agree with The Waco Kid that a Trump general election victory is not out of the question -- although, as he notes, a lot of things would have to break just right for that to occur. Nonetheless, I have trouble finding much disagreement with the opinion held by Tiny's friend, and if I were a betting man would wager that the probability of a Republican loss in the presidential election next year is at least 80%.

Up until last week, I thought DeSantis would have a much better chance of winning, since he could make the case that he's a smarter, more coherent, and more competent version of Trump, and would essentially promote the same agenda.

But after he signed the radical Florida anti-abortion legislation last week, I'm not so sure. The new law prohibits the procedure after only 6 weeks following conception, except for rape victims.

I doubt this will play well on the national stage, since a majority of Americans have no interest in taking major steps toward transforming the nation into a Christian theocracy.

[texassapper]

Originally Posted by Texas Contrarian

The new law prohibits the procedure after only 6 weeks following conception, except for rape victims.

I doubt this will play well on the national stage, since a majority of Americans have no interest in taking major steps toward transforming the nation into a Christian theocracy.

Want to explain what the abortion laws are like in Moslem nations? Since when did protecting the lives of the innocent become a Christian value?