The pollsters are starting to cover their asses

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by Jacuzzme

In what world does a 17 point shift in one week seem plausible?

Rasmussen is not one of the more reliable polling firms. I believe Rasmussen is the only company that has daily weekday polling.

On September 25th Rasmussen had Trump +4. In their next poll on the 28th, Trump was -7. Since then he has ranged from -2 to -10.

Does not seem realistic to me either.

[texassapper]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

Those Tweets are from 3 weeks ago, LOL. Trump has LOST a lot of ground since then. And millions of votes have been cast already.

Heh.. I know. That's the great part. The Dems are burning up their base with early voting. Their turn out will be lower on election day because of all the scare tactics. Plus all those retarded college kids are at home in the basement now..so they'll be too busy playing call of duty and getting wasted to go vote.

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

Cling to your false hope, though.

That's me... just another bitter clinger.

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

I am seeing fewer Trump signs lately. Like some people have removed them from their yards. I see more from the local Republican, than for Trump. Unusual.

Odd, I'm seeing just the opposite. And frankly, I know most Trump supporters don't put up signs or they put up signs for the local Conservative candidates as a proxy for their Trump signs. The National Socialists of BLM and Pantifa have a tendency to damage property that have support for ideas that lefties don't like.

(I should try putting Trump stickers on cars in liberal neighborhoods so a little of that blue on blue violence/property destruction takes place heee heee)

The beauty of unintended consequences. Democrats have spent so much time vilifying Conservatives, that they now no longer can get accurate enough info to assist in their election day cheating games. LOL. I think we should go with the Iraq Purple finger dye. Show up with your DL or passport. vote, DIP and move along. Polls stay open 24hrs on a Saturday. Seems to me, if we want to stop fighting over the elections we need to make them as secure, open and verifiable as possible. Paper trail and scantron the whole way. Fuck this no paper shit... too easy to "lose" the data and since our govt. is apparently clueless when it comes to technology - wiping servers, phones, personal emails... they do shit that would get one of my employees shit canned without question, we need to rely on paper, inked fingers.

[ICU 812]

In 206 the4re were a huge number of people who w2ere not honest with pollsters. This time around I think it is more so. We get calls for surveys every day, and we just hang up.

[nevergaveitathought]

regarding polls

do any of you personally know a trump voter in 2016 who will not vote for trump in 2020?

do any of you know a biden supporter who is fearful to express their support of biden?

conversely do you know trump supporters fearful, due to loss of job, or fearing attacks of some sort, of expressing their support for him?

[Jacuzzme]

I should try putting Trump stickers on cars in liberal neighborhoods so a little of that blue on blue violence/property destruction takes place heee heee)

I’m supporting the President, for certain, but my car was too expensive to put a sticker on it and invite one of these Biden loons to key it or worse. It shouldn’t be this way. I’d never even consider doing something like that, but so-called democrat “leaders” have been giving tacit approval to political violence since President Trump won the election, even more so of late, so one is compelled to suppress their own speech in fear of violent retribution.

[Unique_Carpenter]

Ok, another discussion on poll magic.
Why don't any of you add the error of margin that each poll has when you mention a poll?
Any poll with less than a million samples is trash.

[texassapper]

An article about the polls or the fundamentals...

We don’t really need to go back through all of the double-digit leads Hillary Clinton had on Trump, and the alleged mathematical certainties of a Hillary win and so on. Everybody knows the pollsters blew it then.

What’s different now? Anything?

Not really. Not fundamentally.

There were shy Trump voters in 2016 that pollsters couldn’t pick up. There are just as many now. Probably more — if anything the Left has been more oppressive and more fearsome in its attempts to shame and disparage Trump voters where it can. Deranged Democrats are recording themselves vandalizing Trump signs, some even on private property. Cars with Trump bumper stickers get keyed. People attack strangers for wearing MAGA hats.

What we found out in 2016 is those tactics don’t persuade people not to vote for Trump. Such tactics drive those votes underground, and they resurface in the secrecy of the voting booth. There is no penalty for straight-up lying to a pollster, at least not yet.

In 2016 it was Hillary Clinton calling those voters deplorables. This year it’s Antifa beating them up in the streets.

Do you not think Trump’s voters are even more shy than they were before?

[GastonGlock]

Originally Posted by Jacuzzme

In what world does a 17 point shift in one week seem plausible?

One where poll respondents lie to the pollsters out of fear of their lives and jobs.

[Tsmokies]

Makes me wonder why the gop are blowing up Texas with their ads. Texas used to be a really ignorant racist clueless redneck state that the gop stacked and owned. Gop be running scared in purple Texas now

[GastonGlock]

Originally Posted by Tsmokies

Makes me wonder why the gop are blowing up Texas with their ads. Texas used to be a really ignorant racist clueless redneck state that the gop stacked and owned. Gop be running scared in purple Texas now

Because Austin keeps letting in degenerate idiots from California and New York in. We should take that Mexico wall money and put it around them to contain the stupidity.

[TryWeakly]

Gonna need a bigger wall.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by Unique_Carpenter

Ok, another discussion on poll magic.
Why don't any of you add the error of mar depending ogin that each poll has when you mention a poll?
Any poll with less than a million samples is trash.

Everyone knows that there is a margin of error associated in any poll. Usually 2-4% depending on the poll. That is why when the average of polls within a state is less than 5% difference between the candidates, that state is put in the "toss-up" category.

Your last statement shows a lack of understanding of sampling methodology.

An introduction to sampling methods

https://www.scribbr.com/methodology/sampling-methods/

[texassapper]

And the poll that is probably best illustrative of where folks minds are right now.

And just like in '84...are you better off now than you were four years ago is the most accurate predictor of Presidential voting patterns. Because it removes the political aspect of the vote from the questioner. You actually have a better chance of getting the accurate numbers.

I don't know a single Conservative that wouldn't lie to the pollsters. Not one.

[matchingmole]

[Unique_Carpenter]

Speed,
Over 156 mill voters expected for for
Nov 2020
1 mill is an easy call for worthlessness. Especially when the questions are loaded.
Next time use the professional version of sampling explanation, not the high school version