The stock market is starting to worry about Bernie Sanders

[WTF]

Originally Posted by oeb11

I plan to cross over and vote bernie in the primaries.

he is a card carrying communist - and his totalitarian bent will play poorly against Trump in 2020.

Which means your premise that the market is dropping because Bernie may get elected ludicrous.


You can't even keep up with your own bullshit

[oeb11]

ftw- read the article .

There are many factors - but Bernie is a Communist totalitarian.

elect him at your peril.
I plan to go vote for bernie in the DPST primary - His resounding defeat in the 2020 election is needed to the out of control socialists in the Fascist DPST party.


As per usual ftw has only name-calling, scatology, and underage as the focus of posts.

[Unique_Carpenter]

Originally Posted by WTF

Right now we have investments bankers skewing the market with unusually low interest rates. So are you for crony capitalism?

So you prefer high interest rates which then cause average joe worker to not be able to afford a house mortgage?

Geeze, WTF, are you sure you know what side of the convo you're actually on?

[oeb11]

ftw cannot engage in a "conversation" or debate - his ilk only have name-calling, scatology, and concern with underage accusations.

Nothing more.


It is interesting to compare and contrast posts from HF, NGIT, and Tiny - well reasoned and thoughtful posters, with the sad, pathetic, hateful garbage coming from the Fascist DPST's.

[WTF]

Originally Posted by Unique_Carpenter

So you prefer high interest rates which then cause average joe worker to not be able to afford a house mortgage?

Geeze, WTF, are you sure you know what side of the convo you're actually on?

Or retired workers that have saved money and do not want to invest in a risky stock market but still get a decent return on their saving...

So yes...I know ETF I'm talking about. Putting seniors in the risky market is not the wisest of moves....or do you disagree?

This is a bubble....forced by unusually low rates.

[WTF]

Originally Posted by oeb11

ftw cannot engage in a "conversation" or debate - his ilk only have name-calling, scatology, and concern with underage accusations.

Nothing more.

I did not realize you were underage junior but I'm not suprised.

[oeb11]

Point confirmed ftw - thank you.

[Unique_Carpenter]

Originally Posted by WTF

Or retired workers that have saved money and do not want to invest in a risky stock market but still get a decent return on their saving...

So yes...I know ETF I'm talking about. Putting seniors in the risky market is not the wisest of moves....or do you disagree?

This is a bubble....forced by unusually low rates.

So you switch from workers to retired folks on the topic? Retired folks don't buy houses.

How can you present a coherent rebuttal when you change underlying data?

WTF,
That is why no one takes you seriously. You don't present coherent discussion points when you introduce a new topic in the middle of something else. Finish the first topic. Then present new topic.

Btw, investing for future, is quite diff than mortgage interest rates.

[WTF]

Originally Posted by Unique_Carpenter

So you switch from workers to retired folks on the topic? Retired folks don't buy houses.

How can you present a coherent rebuttal when you change underlying data?

.

You are missing the point UC ... let me try and simplify. How about I use the term. Older workers and retirees?

Do you understand on balance money managers steer these folks into more fixed rates and less stock investments?

Also...and this is another point you seem to gloss over....these artificially low rates are creating bubbles. Why would you want that? Because it would be to much debt service? Maybe now you'll understand why it was in fact a bad thing. Were we to have decent rates for "older" folks to park their money....we would not be having this conversation that you seem to to be able to grasp.

You act as if there is no lying AND hang. Only ying...

[Tiny]

Interesting questions. How much is the stock market discounted for a Sanders or Warren presidency, and how much should it be discounted. Here's what the gamblers' collective wisdom on predictit.org indicates, as to probabilities Democrats will win the presidency, Senate and House,

Sanders 25%
Biden 18%
Bloomberg 10%
Yang 5%
Warren 4%
Buttigieg 2%

Democrats control Senate: 32%
Democrats control House: 70%
Sanders or Warren becomes president = 25% + 4% = 29%

If these were independent events that didn't depend on each other, I think the estimated probability Warren or Sanders would win the presidency and Democrats would control both the House and the Senate would be

29% x 32% x 70% = 6.5%

Then how much of an effect would this have on share prices? Really who knows. You can at a minimum factor in corporate profits dropping 12% if the Democrats take the federal corporate tax rate back to 35%, and I'd argue there would probably be other negative effects.

However who wins the presidency, the Senate and the House are not independent events. The probability that Bernie or Liz will win and that Democrats will also control both the House and Senate is higher than 6.5% IMHO. For example, if a lot of Progressives turn out to vote for Sanders and he wins, that means the chances Democrats will win the Senate improve.

Oeb, 8 months or so ago I would have agreed with you, that Biden would be a stronger opponent for Trump than Sanders. I don't believe that's the case any longer. Two of the main reasons are the Ukraine "scandal" created by Giuliani and Biden's relatively poor performance in the debates compared to Sanders. Right now, the Real Clear Politics averages show Biden leading Trump by 4.3% and Sanders leading Trump by 3.0%. BUT, Sanders is likely to be a bit like Trump. Trump overperformed the polls in the real election, particularly in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. He was a maverick, people wanted a change. You could see the same effect with Sanders. Sanders has a very enthusiastic voter base compared to Biden. He may bring more people to the polls, who wouldn't have showed up to vote for Biden. That is people who haven't participated much in the political process in the past. They'll vote for Democrats for the Senate and House too. As a result, Democrats may regain the Senate, where they wouldn't with Biden at the top of the ticket.

[oeb11]

Tiny - interesting thoughts.

I hope if Sanders wins the DPST nomination - that debate uncovers his profound communist ideology. Middle America will not vote for that .

With all the free stuff, Soylent green new deal, support to abolish right to work laws, term abortion support, free medicare for all, bernie is a financial disaster for the country.

The large donors will see his desire to tax them into oblivion, and restrict funds for bernie.

I do not think his programs will resonate with a responsible America.

That written - When America realizes the Treasury can be its pocketbook, representative democracy is Over.

[oeb11]

I also think we are in a situation where no matter the DPST nominee - we may wll be selecting not a potus in Bernie or Biden - but a VP who will become POTUS during the term if elected. Bith are elderly with significant medical issues.

Trump is also older - but seems vigorous enough for another term so far.

I feel neither bernie or biden will survive a campaign and 4 year term.

Vote DPST is a vote for the VP nominee - and likely a very Progressive Communist type to sooth and attract those radical DPST voters to the ticket.

[WTF]

Originally Posted by oeb11

I do not think his programs will resonate with a responsible America.

That written - When America realizes the Treasury can be its pocketbook, representative democracy is Over.

So you like I do not think Sanders has a Chinamans chance in hell of winning the Presidency....
yet 8 months out you start a thread attributing the stock market dip to Sanders?

I would say your full of shit but that would be giving you too much credit.

And you think the Fed and Treasury are not now under the President's spell/control?

What fucking planet are you from?

[oeb11]

ftw is conflating oranges and rhinoceros.

Thank you ftw.


you are certainly expert at name-calling and scatology.

[WTF]

Originally Posted by oeb11

ftw is conflating oranges and rhinoceros.

Thank you ftw.


you are certainly expert at name-calling and scatology.

I gave you a hint in my last post the probably cause of the market dip your thread title attributed to Bernie.

Do you even understand how stupid your thread title sounds?

China virus, death, 16 million quarantined. And you blame Bernie...