Washington Post Poll - Close race in 7 swing states. Harris leads Trump in 4 of them

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by DEAR_JOHN

They're all red. If he wins PA, NC, and GA, it's all over before the west coast states are even counted assuming Trump wins the states he's heavily favored in.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/ele...eground-states

Here's something else to think about.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/bet...2024/president

Or maybe this. No toss up map, Trump 312 over harris with 226.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/map...ctoral-college.

Your girl is sinking faster than her head in Willie Brown's lap. I wonder what kind of welcome she will receive in Houston tomorrow.

How is Harris sinking fast? In Penn, Mich and Wisc Trumps leads are < 1%. This is from your Real Clear Politics link.

2024 2020 2016 (Oct 26th)
National Harris +0.1 Biden +7.8 Clinton +5.4
Wisconsin Trump +0.2 Biden +5.5 Clinton +6.0
Pennsylvania Trump +0.6 Biden +4.8 Clinton +4.3
Ohio Trump +7.0 Trump +0.6 Trump +1.0
Michigan Trump +0.2 Biden +9.0 Clinton +9.5
Arizona Trump +1.5 Biden +2.2 Clinton +1.5
Nevada Trump +0.7 Biden +5.2 Clinton +2.0
North Carolina Trump +0.8 Biden +1.2 Clinton +2.7
Georgia Trump +2.2 Trump +0.4 Trump +3.3
Florida Trump +8.4 Biden +0.4 Clinton +1.8


The data is the data. Clearly, you misspoke from your own link. It's going to be a close race. Who ever takes Penn will probably win the electoral college. If Harris wins just Penn, Mich, Wisc and Nevada she will win the electoral college. It will not matter what happens in the other battleground (swing) states.

[Lucas McCain]

^^^ DJ can't respond to you temporarily. I guess he failed to pay attention to the reminder he chose as his avatar... anyway, we're close enough now to election day that I wouldn't really worry about the polls considering the fact that the consensus is that both candidates are basically even in the polls considering the margin of error.

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by Lucas McCain

^^^ DJ can't respond to you temporarily. I guess he failed to pay attention to the reminder he chose as his avatar... anyway, we're close enough now to election day that I wouldn't really worry about the polls considering the fact that the consensus is that both candidates are basically even in the polls considering the margin of error.

I am not worried about Harris nationally or how she is doing in states Mich, Penn, Wisc, NC and Nevada. Trump's lead in all of these states is less than 1%. I like to keep an eye on the numbers that Real Clear Politics has. In the 2020 election Real Clear Politics got 48 out of 50 states correct.

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by Lucas McCain

^^^ DJ can't respond to you temporarily. I guess he failed to pay attention to the reminder he chose as his avatar... anyway, we're close enough now to election day that I wouldn't really worry about the polls considering the fact that the consensus is that both candidates are basically even in the polls considering the margin of error.

which says more about Harris than Trump. what little bump she got post Convention has evaporated. if Trump is such a bad candidate Harris should be pulling away instead she's dropping.

[Salty Again]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

I am not worried about Harris nationally or how she is doing in states Mich, Penn, Wisc, NC and Nevada. Trump's lead in all of these states is less than 1%. I like to keep an eye on the numbers that Real Clear Politics has. In the 2020 election Real Clear Politics got 48 out of 50 states correct.

Blimey! ... Wonder who they got on top?

#### Salty

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

not so fast poll fans!!!


That the race is … still a tie. According to the current Silver Bulletin averages, Harris is narrowly ahead in Wisconsin (by 0.6 points), Michigan (by 0.6 points) and Nevada (by 0.5 points); Trump is ahead by slightly more in North Carolina (1 point), Georgia (1.3 points) and Arizona (2 points).


A tie in Pennsylvania — which is what Silver Bulletin shows — means that if the election were held today, and if today’s averages were exactly right, Harris would get 257 electoral votes and Trump would get 262. Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes would be the tiebreaker.
What about momentum? Who has 'The Big Mo'?

“Big” might be an overstatement — but if anyone has been making gains in recent days, it’s Trump.

On the flip side, Harris is benefiting from increased support among white, college-educated voters. In 2016, Clinton won this group — who previously leaned Republican — by 5 points. In 2020, Biden won them by 9 points. Now, a recent CNN poll shows Harris leading among white college graduates by 18.

@Waco, according to your post from 10/22 the Silver Bulletin has Harris getting at least 257 electoral college votes to Trumps 262, with Penn not being counted (due to a virtual tie in Penn).
So in this scenario who ever wins Penn will win the electoral college. Regardless of what has happened in town hall meetings, Harris is in good shape according to your links. Harris has surged among college-educated voters.

Take a look at any poll for the state of Penn, Harris has a very good chance to win Penn and the electoral college!

[Yssup Rider]

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

which says more about Harris than Trump. what little bump she got post Convention has evaporated. if Trump is such a bad candidate Harris should be pulling away instead she's dropping.

For some reason the MAGA pundits, shills and followers see Harris as "dropping," "plummeting," "fading."

I think that's self-soothing talk and an attempt to stir up the mob for Jan 6, 2025.

It's part of the long con.

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

@Waco, according to your post from 10/22 the Silver Bulletin has Harris getting at least 257 electoral college votes to Trumps 262, with Penn not being counted (due to a virtual tie in Penn).
So in this scenario who ever wins Penn will win the electoral college. Regardless of what has happened in town hall meetings, Harris is in good shape according to your links. Harris has surged among college-educated voters.

Take a look at any poll for the state of Penn, Harris has a very good chance to win Penn and the electoral college!

Nate Silver has PA a dead heat. WI is a dead heat. NV a dead heat. Trump leading in AZ, GA and NC. Harris ahead in MI.

Originally Posted by Yssup Rider

For some reason the MAGA pundits, shills and followers see Harris as "dropping," "plummeting," "fading."

I think that's self-soothing talk and an attempt to stir up the mob for Jan 6, 2025.

It's part of the long con.

MAGA aren't the pollsters saying Harris is losing support.



https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-si...on-polls-model

[Unique_Carpenter]

Pennsy is the big dog in this.
That's the key.

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

Nate Silver has PA a dead heat. WI is a dead heat. NV a dead heat. Trump leading in AZ, GA and NC. Harris ahead in MI.





MAGA aren't the pollsters saying Harris is losing support.



https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-si...on-polls-model

Latest update from Nate Silver, things are looking good for Harris regarding the Blue Wall (Mich, Penn, Wisc). If Harris takes all three she will hit 270 electoral college votes.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/nate-silv...152659203.html

[winn dixie]

Originally Posted by Unique_Carpenter

Pennsy is the big dog in this.
That's the key.

It's a must for trumpf.
Kamala can win without it

We're in a waiting period now till weds morning

[ICU 812]

Polls on Polls and polls of polls . b. .

I thnk that they don't know and can't know. This eletion is too full of drama and distrust for anyone to giv a straight answer or for the pollsters to create an unbiased sampling or analasys v. . .even if they gnuinley want to.

As has been said by posters here on both sides, only time will tell. . . .and time is running short.

I hope we will all know what what by midnight is eastern time on tuesday . . .I hope it does not play out over the next full week or month.

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

Latest update from Nate Silver, things are looking good for Harris regarding the Blue Wall (Mich, Penn, Wisc). If Harris takes all three she will hit 270 electoral college votes.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/nate-silv...152659203.html

still a dead heat


“Let’s cut to the chase: So, who’s gonna win the election? Well, honestly, we don’t know,” his post reads.


“Stranger things have happened than a candidate who was behind in the polls winning,” Silver wrote.

[Jacuzzme]

The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s polling index shows Harris with a razor-thin lead nationally over Trump — 48.2 percent to 47.9 percent.

That’s devastating for Harris. Biden was up by 8 and it took days to truck in enough ballots to put him over the top. This is why Harris is sweating bullets and Trump is confident. If history is any predictor, Harris is toast, by a comfortable amount.

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

I'm not seeing it the way The Washington Compost is.
Neither are a couple of the stalwart pollsters out there.

Rasmussen Head Pollster Predicts Trump Landslide, Likens to 1980 Reagan-Carter Election, ‘Major Political Realignment’

Liberal Data Analyst Nate Silver Says Trump Favored to Win, Accuses Pollsters of ‘Putting Finger on the Scale’ to Make Election Seem Closer Than it is