Larry Kudlow admits - wrong about Biden economy

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by lustylad

Please go ahead in full geek mode, I want to hear the detailed explanation.

Doesn't the rate depend on BOTH the total number of people out of work (numerator) and the size of the civilian labor force (denominator)?

In order for the numerator to change the unemployed person has to file a claim with his/her state unemployment department. If the unemployed person never files a claim then that numerator will not change.

If you lose your job the state of New Jersey is the state you where you want to lose it. The weekly benifit before CoVid was like $600 per week. The weekly benefit (if one qualifies for it) varies by state. In most states it's around $400 bucks or less.

How do i know about weekly benefit in New Jersey? I worked with a guy whose wife got laid of in New Jersey and he could not believe how much she was getting for the unempolyment benefit. This was a couple of years before CoVid hit.

https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/f...mployment-rate

[lustylad]

.

Originally Posted by adav8s28

In order for the numerator to change the unemployed person has to file a claim with his/her state unemployment department. If the unemployed person never files a claim then that numerator will not change.

https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/f...mployment-rate

??? The numerator is based on a monthly survey estimating how many people are unemployed AND actively searching for work. It has nothing to do with whether or not they have claimed, or are collecting, unemployment compensation. If you don't apply for UC, or if your UC has run out, you can still be counted as unemployed.

Now please allow Lucas to go into "full geek mode" and give us his explanation.

[Lucas McCain]

In Kudlow's defense, the CEO of JP Morgan predicted the same. Hell, I thought the same thing too because of how much I thought it would affect the industry I work in. I even cut down on luxury spending because of it.

I remember taking my kids to a Mavs/Lakers game last year and my oldest asked, "dad, why don't we sit as close to the court at these games now?" I couldn't tell him that the reason is because I have no idea what my bonus will be this year because I don't talk to my kids about my money and discretionary spending.

adav, nice of you to attempt to explain anything to a member of the WV MAGA Mensa crew on this board. Dude is talking about me going into full geek mode to explain things further and he can't even comprehend the most simplistic example I could think of, so I'll just simplify that example even further for him... If I have $1 and if someone gives me 2 quarters and then takes those 2 quarters back; how much money do I now have? I ignore his posts unless they are quoted for a reason. Lol

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by lustylad

.

??? The numerator is based on a monthly survey estimating how many people are unemployed AND actively searching for work. It has nothing to do with whether or not they have claimed, or are collecting, unemployment compensation. If you don't apply for UC, or if your UC has run out, you can still be counted as unemployed.

According to the NerdWallet link, the Unemployment rate is calculated by the following. No mention of a survey.

The unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed people by the number of people in the labor force. (The labor force is considered the sum of those who are currently working or looking for work.) The result is then multiplied by 100 to get a percentage:

Number of unemployed people / Labor force x 100 = X%, which is the unemployment rate


How would the Federal Gov department of labor know one is unemployed or looking for work? One thing is for sure the claim data statistic is being collected by the state unemployment department. It's just not clear how they use that number.

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by Lucas McCain

Dude is talking about me going into full geek mode to explain things further and he can't even comprehend the most simplistic example I could think of, so I'll just simplify that example even further for him... If I have $1 and if someone gives me 2 quarters and then takes those 2 quarters back; how much money do I now have? I ignore his posts unless they are quoted for a reason. Lol

??? How does that analogy illustrate or "simplify" anything???

The original question was - how can the economy add jobs but the unemployment rate stays the same?

Here's a better analogy:

Let's take $20 in quarters and let those 80 quarters represent the total labor force. If last month 4 quarters were looking for work and the other 76 quarters were employed, then the jobless rate would have been 4/80 = 5.0%.

Now let's assume the economy adds one job this month. One of the 4 unemployed quarters accepts it and starts working. Now there are only 3 quarters still looking for work and 77 quarters employed. The jobless rate drops to 3/80 = 3.75%.

The only way for the unemployment rate to stay the same would be if the total labor force shrinks. Continuing my analogy - if 20 quarters opted to quit or retire this month, then the active labor force would be reduced to 60, and the jobless rate would have been 3/60 = 5.0%, or unchanged from last month.

Is that tantamount to what actually happened? It's hard to say, given all the quirks and adjustments made by the BLS in its monthly jobless reports. Here's yesterday's news release:

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Summary table A (page 7) indicates the (seasonally adjusted) total labor force in January was 167.3 million, of which 6.124 million were unemployed. Do the math (6.124/167.3) and you get a 3.7% jobless rate.

Hope this helps.

[Salty Again]

... Blimey! ... Did I just see "WV MAGA Mensa Board"??
That's surely a slight aimed at me... Bloke there expects
us to explain to surprising "job gains" - and I can't
seem to comprehende the bloke there getting a bonus.

... But as the OP pointed out, Kudlow there IS sayin'
that the economy has improved. Which is grand.
However, we are all aware how the jobs numbers surely happen
to fluctuate up and down nearly every odd-month or so.

... LustyLad has done a great job in pointing that out.

### Salty

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

How would the Federal Gov department of labor know one is unemployed or looking for work?

Each month it conducts a random survey of approximately 60,000 households across the country and asks how many members of each household are either 1) working or 2) unemployed but actively seeking work.

Btw - your NerdWallet definition of the unemployment rate is correct. (Please note it says nothing about whether or not job seekers have applied for, are collecting, or have exhausted, jobless benefits.)

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by Salty Again

... Blimey! ... Did I just see "WV MAGA Mensa Board"??
That's surely a slight aimed at me...

Doesn't he know you're from the Land Down Under? Maybe he thinks "Down Under" means just south of Pittsburgh.

Whoever it was aimed at, he called that person a Mensa member - so it can't be an insult.

[Salty Again]

Originally Posted by lustylad

Doesn't he know you're from the Land Down Under? Maybe he thinks "Down Under" means just south of Pittsburgh.

Whoever it was aimed at, he called that person a Mensa member - so it can't be an insult.

... (Lucas remembers from the other site that
I lived over WV-way when I first come over)

... It's also rather obvious that The "Biden Economy"
is UP because people believe that Biden will no longer
be president next year and that his opponent will
STRENGTHEN the economy even more.

#### Salty

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by Salty Again

... (Lucas remembers from the other site that
I lived over WV-way when I first come over)

... It's also rather obvious that The "Biden Economy"
is UP because people believe that Biden will no longer
be president next year and that his opponent will
STRENGTHEN the economy even more.

#### Salty

Total BS as usual. The U.S. unemployment rate has been under
4% for the longest time since the Vietnam war.

https://www.opb.org/article/2024/01/...e-vietnam-war/

Jobs increased by 353,000 in January.

Earnings up 4.5% in last year.

Stock markets at all time highs.

Consumer confidence at 2 year high.

Inflation down.

And you give credit to Trump for all the positive economic news? Give me a break.

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Total BS as usual. The U.S. unemployment rate has been under
4% for the longest time since the Vietnam war.

https://www.opb.org/article/2024/01/...e-vietnam-war/

Jobs increased by 353,000 in January.

Earnings up 4.5% in last year.

Stock markets at all time highs.

Consumer confidence at 2 year high.

Inflation down.

And you give credit to Trump for all the positive economic news? Give me a break.

Yes, the DJIA and the S&P 500 set new all time highs under Biden & Harris.

Thanks Sleepy Joe.

Thanks Kamala.

[VitaMan]

Originally Posted by Salty Again

... It's also rather obvious that The "Biden Economy"
is UP because people believe that Biden will no longer
be president next year and that his opponent will
STRENGTHEN the economy even more.

#### Salty

Salty, Mr. Trump is saying the economy and market are strong because he is likely to be the Republican nominee for president.


If he hasn't said it - just wait.

[Salty Again]

... Well, Trump is sayin' that HE will also BE the next President.
And THAT is what's strengthening both the economy and the market.

So you're surely correct on those counts, mate.

#### Salty

[VitaMan]

Last I heard is that Mr. Trump is trying yet again to find a new lawyer to represent him.

[biomed1]

To Stay On Topic . . .

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