Truth about Covid 19

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Originally Posted by Chief62

Exactly, many countries are only testing the sickest people and that skews any calculations.

Looking like a highly relevant, yet heart breaking at the same time, factor is:

• The Chinese bug mainly impacts (kills) people >60 years old
  • Of those affected, most have an underling condition (morbidity)
• The highest amount of deaths seem to be occurring in the 80+ age group

Might be interesting see a stacked bar chart by age group

• where X axis is age, in ten year groupings, starting with 0-10 years etc
• Y axis is total deaths with no underlying conditions stacked on top of those with underlying conditions

[sportfisherman]

And if you factor that iteratively and then wish real hard,you may jigger the mortality rate downward toward that of influenza ! Then you can feel ok !
Remember I confined things to Credentialed individuals who are qualified to have a Valid opinion. They are the ones you are in dispute with.

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Originally Posted by sportfisherman

...confined things to Credentialed individuals who are qualified to have a Valid opinion. They are the ones you are in dispute with.

They are the ones my data comes from. Quit fear porning and look at the actual data they are discussing and generating.

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Originally Posted by sportfisherman

And if you factor that iteratively and then wish real hard,you may jigger the mortality rate downward toward that of influenza ..

Useful CDC numbers:

• US population 320,064,000-ish
• Total US contracted cases 54,453, call it an even 60,000
• Covid deaths in US to date ~800, call it an even 1,000
• 2017 Influenza and Pneumonia deaths were 55,672, call it an even 55,000

Now, you have all the numbers available to do the mortality rate calculations. I even padded them for you. Knock yo fine self out - sport.

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

Useful CDC numbers:

• US population 320,064,000-ish
• Total US contracted cases 54,453, call it an even 60,000
• Covid deaths in US to date ~800, call it an even 1,000
• 2017 Influenza and Pneumonia deaths were 55,672, call it an even 55,000

Now, you have all the numbers available to do the mortality rate calculations. I even padded them for you. Knock yo fine self out - sport.

Dang nabbit. First, I despise responding to my own post, but felt it necessary based on CDC information I had carelessly over looked. So, double apologies.

I missed this litle gem:
Positive results are indicative of active infection with 2019-nCoV but do not rule out bacterial infection or co-infection with other viruses. The agent detected may not be the definite cause of disease. Laboratories within the United States and its territories are required to report all positive results to the appropriate public health authorities.

In other words; it may be present, but not actually doing anything and could be coexisting with other virus(es) etc.

Looks like you still have to iterate, using the 'Total US contracted cases 54,453, call it an even 60,000" as the absolute maximum but start deprecating that number downward to find a more realistic value for actual number of cases contracted that are causing actual issues.

Math is a beotch. Huh? Sorry about that I'll flog myself appropriately.

[EagleEye]

You're comparing stats of things over a 12 month period with something that has been front and center for a small percentage of that! I will trust that public health people know what the fuck they are talking about.



Why don't all the armchair epidemiologists go outside and get some exercise or other actually productive endeavor.


Can we move this to the Sandbox?

[sportfisherman]

Your data may come from Credentialed and Valid sources but you are performing your own analysis and giving your own opinion.
Which you are entitled to with obvious experience in field.
However,it is your analysis and opinion which diverges from that of every reputable PhD Epidemiologist,PhD Microbiologist,and MD Infectious Disease specialist going on record.
Certainly over time,such as years,the mortalty rate may decrease towards that of regular influenza,but on the front end it appears to be higher.Around 2%.

[sportfisherman]

The other thing,for people who don't live in fantasy land,is take a look around.Most people have an innate "bullshit meter".I may be "Country Dumb" but I don't recall any of the worst Flu seasons resembling this.
Do you remember one when they canceled NBA,MLB,NCAA,and shut down Las Vegas ? When did we lockdown and shelter in place ?
So if you want to crunch some numbers and pretend this is just a regular old flu then Dream On.
Chumpsters are good at twisting facts to fit the Separate Reality of their narrative.

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Originally Posted by EagleEye

...Can we move this to the Sandbox?

Agree. I asked Mods to move it there

[Precious_b]

Let's muddy the water a bit more.

[tex4354125]

Originally Posted by Dr Hackenbush

Let me say up front this is not about trump or fake news. My question is more about irresponsible reporting. Do you feel the media is the cause of a lot of the panic. Do we need to be cautious, yes. But come on saying people are dying followed by the same file photos from Washington state. My point, is it factual report,or yelling fire in a crowded theatre. Yesterday they reported healthcare providers testing positive for virus, sad but remember they are on the front line. Stop going for ratings.

Haha what are you a doctor in again?

I’ve got several friends who are doctors and nurses working in the thick of it right now.

Take it seriously and stay home.

[Sirgenerous]

As of today March26 New York hospitals are overrun with Covid 19 patients and deaths.

Unlike the OLD myth from a week ago that it is mainly a threat to the old with preexisting conditions many of these rapidly increasing deaths are now young previously perfectly healthy individuals.

It is now at the point where patients are selectively being allowed to die due to lack of supplies.

Who gives a rat's ass if this in the wrong forum? This possibly life saving info is far too important and far more relevant than any of the dribble and brainless tit for tat on a fuck site.

This affects Everyone here NOW.

As if what mattered here a year ago even remotely matters compared to what has arrived.

Wake the fuck up already and get your priorities in order.

[Zhivago52]

A serious form of flu with media driven hysteria in an election year. Several tested and proven cures (other countries) but Democrat governors here are banning use. Fauxi dragging his feet; must still go thru trials (that have already been done in other countries). Trials start some locations last week of March.


Some perspective - 40,000 US deaths seasonal flu 2017. 25,000+ 2019. 61 million US H1N1 infections and tens of thousands dead. Over 1,000 dead before Obama did anything.

[sportfisherman]

It is not influenza.It is an election year.The hysteria comes from having a dick-head fake pres amateur totally over his head.He made a bad call in Jan when for sake of his political future he held back from Early,Aggressive,Widespread,Fr ee Testing plus a ramp-up of medical capability.Republican governors ban them as well.Dr Fauci is the only one holding it together.
Obama handled all the crises on his watch in a very cool,calm,smooth manner.Did Las Vegas,NCAA,NBA,and MLB close on Obama ? Plus he left a structure and playbook in place for future Presidents,not idiots like Chump obviously.
Another driver of hysteria is the Mixed messages from the beginning which persist now.Shithole countries have done way better than we have.
Go to an ER in New York if you want to see some hysteria that media has nothing to do with.

[CryptKicker]

This should have been moved to the sandbox many days ago. Sorry for my lapse folks.....