The home stretch to November 8th

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by the_real_Barleycorn

Copy this and put down your final predictions:

Senate:

John Fetterman
Mehmet Oz
Oz, by a c**t hair


Rapheal Warnock
Herschel Walker
Runoff

Adam Laxalt
Catherine Masto
Laxalt

Mark Kelly
Blake Masters
Kelly

Tim Ryan
J.D. Vance
Vance

Ron Johnson
Mandela Barnes
Johnson

Maggie Hassan
Don Bolduc
Hassan, but, surprisingly, by the hair of her chinny chin chin

Michael Bennett
Joe O'Dea
Bennett

Marco Rubio
Val Demmings
Rubio

Ted Bud
Cheri Beasley
Bud

Governor:

Kari Lake
Katie Hobbs
Lake

Brian Kemp
Stacey Abrams
Kemp

Tony Evers
Tim Michels
Michels

Gretchen Whitmer
Tudor Dixon
Whitmer

Steve Sisolak
Joe Lombardo
Lombardo

Laura Kelly
Derek Schmidt
Schmidt

Wes Moore
Dan Cox
Why ask? Moore

Josh Shapiro
Doug Mastriano
Shapiro

Ron DeSantis
Charlie Crist
DeSantis

Bonus

Amanda Adkins
Sharice Davids
Davids

Senate totals:
Republicans 51.5 (51 or 52)
Democrats 46.5 (46 or 47)
Other 2

House: I have no idea, so I'll guess 29 seat Republican gain, one less than Barleycorn:
Republicans 241
Democrats: 194

[NiceGuy53]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

To answer your last question first -- probably not. In some states counting of mail-in votes does not even begin until polls close. And that process is very time consuming.

Regarding your first comments -- will we see the same non-acceptance of the results from Republicans if Democrats win in certain states? Certainly many people of the left were upset by the election results in 2016 but few denied the legitimacy of Trump's victory.

https://www.insider.com/joe-biden-sa...esident-2019-5

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...40f_story.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...f07_story.html

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...rebecca-solnit

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...t-poll-n735426

Read these links and tell me if you still stand by your asinine statement that few on the left denied the legitimacy of the Trump presidency. These links are only the first 5 links when I googled "Trump was an illegitimate President". There are many more.

Returning to the subject of the OP, RCP is now projecting a net gain of 4 Republican seats in the US Senate. They are projecting that they will hold all their current seats and win Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and New Hampshire.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

[the_real_Barleycorn]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

While there is truth to the claim that there was Russian interfreence in the 2016 election, I believe the impact was minor. Trump won a fair election.

You are correct in your analysis of the current outlook for next Tuesday. Supposedly safe Democratic seats are in jeopardy. You predicted Republicans would pick up 30-35 House seats. Does not seem realistic. You predicted a gain of 4-5 Senate seats. Again, does not seem realistic. I'm interested in which 4 Democratic Senate seats you see flipping.

Early voting in Texas has fallen behind 2018 levels. Early voting is usually an indicator of Democratic strength so that is not good for Democrats.

Masters over Kelly in Arizona +1
Oz over Fetterman in Pennsylvania =
Walker over Warnock in Georgia +1
Laxalt bangs Masto in Nevada +1
I'm going out on a limb that Smiley downs Murray in Washington and Tshibaka over Murkowski in Alaska +2

or +5

I'm going to give myself a bumper with Bolduc over Hassan in New Hampshire.

I know where Davids is going to be on Thursday...lets see if I can get her to answer a question.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by the_real_Barleycorn

Masters over Kelly in Arizona +1
Oz over Fetterman in Pennsylvania =
Walker over Warnock in Georgia +1
Laxalt bangs Masto in Nevada +1
I'm going out on a limb that Smiley downs Murray in Washington and Tshibaka over Murkowski in Alaska +2

or +5

I'm going to give myself a bumper with Bolduc over Hassan in New Hampshire.

I know where Davids is going to be on Thursday...lets see if I can get her to answer a question.

I'm sure you realize Murkowski is a Republican, although the way she votes sometimes it is understandable how you could count her as a Democrat.

I think you are pushing it with the Republicans but only time will tell.

[the_real_Barleycorn]

If someone can't be counted upon like Romney or Murkowski (or the guy next to you in the fox hole) then you can have them. Because of whom might be reading this, this does not say that they have to act like mindless drones but these people are supposed to have character and long time interests. People like Murk and Rom abandon their principals so easily.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by the_real_Barleycorn

If someone can't be counted upon like Romney or Murkowski (or the guy next to you in the fox hole) then you can have them. Because of whom might be reading this, this does not say that they have to act like mindless drones but these people are supposed to have character and long time interests. People like Murk and Rom abandon their principals so easily.

So when politicians vote for bills that are not supported by their party, they are abandoning their principals? Maybe they are not blindly following the leader and doing what they believe is best for the country.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by the_real_Barleycorn

If someone can't be counted upon like Romney or Murkowski (or the guy next to you in the fox hole) then you can have them. Because of whom might be reading this, this does not say that they have to act like mindless drones but these people are supposed to have character and long time interests. People like Murk and Rom abandon their principals so easily.

Why don't you like Romney? Yeah, he votes for pork from time to time and he's a neoconservative, but unfortunately that's also true of the majority of Republican senators.

No doubt there's a good chance he'll get beaten in the primaries if he runs again because he stood up to Donald Trump's election fraud fantasies. He could have taken the easy way out and continued to support Trump in public. He didn't. That makes him the opposite of a mindless drone who abandons principles in my book. In the character department, Romney's head and shoulders above McCarthy and the other House Republicans who didn't vote to certify Joe Biden as president.

I still hope Republicans win the House next week. The Senate would be icing on the cake. But I'm saddened at the hypocrisy and lack of character displayed by many of the Republican Congressmen and some of the Republican Senators, who refused to stand up to Trump.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by NiceGuy53

https://www.insider.com/joe-biden-sa...esident-2019-5

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...40f_story.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...f07_story.html

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...rebecca-solnit

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...t-poll-n735426

Read these links and tell me if you still stand by your asinine statement that few on the left denied the legitimacy of the Trump presidency. These links are only the first 5 links when I googled "Trump was an illegitimate President". There are many more.

Returning to the subject of the OP, RCP is now projecting a net gain of 4 Republican seats in the US Senate. They are projecting that they will hold all their current seats and win Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and New Hampshire.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

Few on the left denied the legitimacy of the Trump presidency. There were no lawsuits filed in any state to overturn the results. Few if any marched on Washington to prevent the validation of Trump's victory. No one was sentenced for up to 10 years for participating in any protests. I have never had much respect for Hillary Clinton so I am not surprised she disagreed with the results. On January 6, 2017 Biden pounded his gavel and said "It's over", meaning oppostion to Trump's victory was futile.

Back on subject. I respect RCP. In recent elections polls have overestimated Democrats in several states so if that is true in 2022 the RCP predictions could very well be true. FiveThirtyEight gives Hassan a 72% chance of winning, Kelly 66%, and Fetterman 56%. But 538 has Republicans winning in Nevada and Georgia. Sabato has it 49-49 with only Nevada and Georgia in the undecided category.

[NiceGuy53]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Few on the left denied the legitimacy of the Trump presidency. There were no lawsuits filed in any state to overturn the results. Few if any marched on Washington to prevent the validation of Trump's victory. No one was sentenced for up to 10 years for participating in any protests. I have never had much respect for Hillary Clinton so I am not surprised she disagreed with the results. On January 6, 2017 Biden pounded his gavel and said "It's over", meaning oppostion to Trump's victory was futile.

Back on subject. I respect RCP. In recent elections polls have overestimated Democrats in several states so if that is true in 2022 the RCP predictions could very well be true. FiveThirtyEight gives Hassan a 72% chance of winning, Kelly 66%, and Fetterman 56%. But 538 has Republicans winning in Nevada and Georgia. Sabato has it 49-49 with only Nevada and Georgia in the undecided category.

Biden may have pounded his gavel on January 6, 2017 and said it's over but he later said he absolutely agreed that Trump was an illegitimate president. And Hilliary may have conceded the 2016 election after being urged to do so by then President Obama but she has later said that Trump is an illegitimate president. You can't have it both ways. You are ignoring what both these politicians later said. There have been other Democrats who have publicly said that Trump was an illegitimate president. They are John Lewis, Elizabeth Warren, Jimmy Carter and Paul Krugman who later tried to deny that any Democrat had said Trump was illegitimate when he did so himself. One poll found that 57% of Americans aged 18-30 thought that Trump was an illegitimate president. On Trump's first full day in office, there was a women's march on Washington where Madonna said she has thought about blowing up the White House and she was wildly cheered by many in the crowd. The Washington Post estimated that 4.1 million people participated in these women marches across the country on January 21-22, 2017. And there was talk on the left about impeaching Trump before he had even taken the oath of office. If that wasn't questioning the legitimacy of Trump's victory, then I don't know what is.

Returning to the subject of the OP, we will see whether RCP or 538 is more accurate in predicting this election. I think the Republicans will take control of the Senate by at least 2 seats, possibly more. There are a few races that will be very close and we may not know the results for several days. The race in Georgia could result in a runoff in December. But when it is all said and done, the Republicans will control both houses of Congress.

[HedonistForever]

Originally Posted by NiceGuy53

Biden may have pounded his gavel on January 6, 2017 and said it's over but he later said he absolutely agreed that Trump was an illegitimate president. And Hilliary may have conceded the 2016 election after being urged to do so by then President Obama but she has later said that Trump is an illegitimate president. You can't have it both ways. You are ignoring what both these politicians later said. There have been other Democrats who have publicly said that Trump was an illegitimate president. They are John Lewis, Elizabeth Warren, Jimmy Carter and Paul Krugman who later tried to deny that any Democrat had said Trump was illegitimate when he did so himself. One poll found that 57% of Americans aged 18-30 thought that Trump was an illegitimate president. On Trump's first full day in office, there was a women's march on Washington where Madonna said she has thought about blowing up the White House and she was wildly cheered by many in the crowd. The Washington Post estimated that 4.1 million people participated in these women marches across the country on January 21-22, 2017. And there was talk on the left about impeaching Trump before he had even taken the oath of office. If that wasn't questioning the legitimacy of Trump's victory, then I don't know what is.

.

Got to give you props, that was some damn fine analysis right there.

[the_real_Barleycorn]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

So when politicians vote for bills that are not supported by their party, they are abandoning their principals? Maybe they are not blindly following the leader and doing what they believe is best for the country.

I'm kind of disappointed. I was thinking you were better than this. I DID NOT say that not going along with the party was a betrayal of some sorts. I'm talking about the late John McCain voting over and over again to repeal Obamacare...when it didn't count. When he finally has a chance to do the right thing, he folds. That is betrayal. The same can be said of a politician who has made a career out of supporting the military and then shafts them for a committee assignment under the opposing party (say hello Liz Cheney). If someone really does do an about face and votes for something diametrically opposed to their values, then they owe it to their supporters to explain their actions.

Sad to say, this is getting off topic. Since a "conversation" is not allowed to meander on this site anymore, I guess we had better get on topic.

[WTF]

Originally Posted by lustylad

Thanks, WTF. I'll take that under advisement. Now can you please tell everyone the difference between Captial and Capital and Capitol?

Stay safe out there!

I'll wait until your ban is up!

[HedonistForever]

What will Joe Bidens first remarks be when Republicans take back control of Congress?


I guess you have heard all this talk about , it will be the end of not only our Democracy, but the end of the world!!! And a very perceptive person says, uh, Joe Biden is still the President and can veto anything the Republicans propose.


Now come on people, if you can be serious for just one minute as tough as that is for some of you, does that sound like the end of Democracy or exactly how our Democracy works?


Republicans will not be able to pass a damn thing, nor will Democrats, but what happens when Republicans proposals that sound like they might work, especially on the border and crime and Joe Biden veto's them? Who gets the blame in 2024?

[the_real_Barleycorn]

One thing the republicans can do is to defund (there's that word again) what has been passed in the last two years. Like 87,000 IRS agents.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

It will be a very interesting evening/night next Tuesday. Lines were very long yesterday, last day of early voting in Texas, at my voting precinct, even in the rain. No Senator up for reelection in Texas. I expect Gov. Abbott to win by 5-7% over O'Rourke. As usual, I split my vote.