The man who predicted Trump's victory says Democrats may have to impeach him to have a chance in 2020

[bambino]

I think the China fight is the only thing that could bring Trump down. I don’t think he cares. He’ll continue to bring it. He should. No one else will.

[themystic]

Originally Posted by bambino

I think the China fight is the only thing that could bring Trump down. I don’t think he cares. He’ll continue to bring it. He should. No one else will.

Problem is that he doesn't care who gets hurt as long as it isn't him. Is Trump going to quit doing business with China personally. That would be no. One of the tenants in Trump Tower is Bank of China. Trump personally owes the Chinese millions in personal loans

[bambino]

Originally Posted by themystic

Problem is that he doesn't care who gets hurt as long as it isn't him. Is Trump going to quit doing business with China personally. That would be no. One of the tenants in Trump Tower is Bank of China. Trump personally owes the Chinese millions in personal loans

Then why is he fucking with them. As usual, you don’t make any sense. Get a butt licking from the velvet tongue. Maybe you can reciprocate. I’m sure you will.

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by bambino

I think the China fight is the only thing that could bring Trump down. I don’t think he cares. He’ll continue to bring it. He should. No one else will.

Yes, my point exactly.

It needs done, but might be his undoing in the short term. The US will certainly benefit long term, but it's the here and now as shown by many of Lichtman's items that matter to the vote.

[bambino]

Originally Posted by eccielover

Yes, my point exactly.

It needs done, but might be his undoing in the short term. The US will certainly benefit long term, but it's the here and now as shown by many of Lichtman's items that matter to the vote.

Lichtmam has been around for awhile. He’s not saying anything that isn’t common sense. Which the polls miss sometimes. Trump should inflict as much pain on the ChiComs now. They’re lying thieves,cheats and murderers. That how they came to power, kept it, and think that’s how they will keep power.

Hong Kong has different ideas. It’s a big thorn in the ChiComs gut. Trump should kick them in the gut if he gets re-elected or not. The globalists love them. Cheap labor and no regulations.,People are getting rich while the ChiComs plunder their people and everyone else’s. Wake up

[themystic]

Originally Posted by eccielover

Yes, my point exactly.

It needs done, but might be his undoing in the short term. The US will certainly benefit long term, but it's the here and now as shown by many of Lichtman's items that matter to the vote.

Then why does he do personal business with the Chinese? Why does he lease office space to them? Why does he borrow money from their banks?

[bambino]

Originally Posted by themystic

Then why does he do personal business with the Chinese? Why does he lease office space to them? Why does he borrow money from their banks?

They rent from him. He dictates the terms. But that’s beside the point. It’s much larger than that. I’m not going to waste my time trying to explain it to a numbskulll like you.

[themystic]

Originally Posted by bambino

They rent from him. He dictates the terms. But that’s beside the point. It’s much larger than that. I’m not going to waste my time trying to explain it to a numbskulll like you.

Because you cant explain it. You can make excuses but you cant explain it

[LexusLover]

Originally Posted by themystic

Problem is that he doesn't care who gets hurt as long as it isn't him.

This isn't your stupidist remark, just your dumbest. And that's bad!

Besides that you and your new thong buddy need to take some English.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by oeb11

https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/28/polit...020/index.html
Allan Lichtman doesn't mind swimming against the political tide.Lichtman, a professor at American University in Washington, DC, was the most prominent voice predicting Donald Trump's victory in the run-up to the 2016 election. When Trump won, it marked the 9th(!) straight presidential election where Lichtman had correctly predicted the Electoral College winner. (That's all the way back to 1984, for you math wizards.)






In short: Lichtman is someone the political world should listen to. So I reached out to him on Tuesday to see what he thought of Trump's current chances at a second term next November.
Here's what he told me:
"Trump wins again in 2020 unless six of 13 key factors turn against him. I have no final verdict yet because much could change during the next year. Currently, the President is down only three keys: Republican losses in the midterm elections, the lack of a foreign policy success, and the president's limited appeal to voters."
Lichtman's prediction system is based on 13 true/false statements about the party that holds the White House. If six or more of the statement are false, the incumbent loses. If less than six are false, the incumbent wins. Simple!
Here are Lichtman's 13 criteria -- via his book "Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016" and as summarized by WaPo's Peter Stevenson:
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2 Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Which brings me to the most intriguing -- and outside-the-box -- suggestion from my conversation with Lichtman: He believes Democrats in the House not only should be pushing to impeach Trump, but may need to in order for their nominee to win in 2020.
Again, here's Lichtman:
"Democrats are fundamentally wrong about the politics of impeachment and their prospects for victory in 2020. An impeachment and subsequent trial would cost the president a crucial fourth key -- the scandal key -- just as it cost Democrats that key in 2000. The indictment and trial would also expose him to dropping another key by encouraging a serious challenge to his re-nomination. Other potential negative keys include the emergence of a charismatic Democratic challenger, a significant third-party challenge, a foreign policy disaster, or an election-year recession. Without impeachment, however, Democratic prospects are grim."


Which is VERY counter to the conventional wisdom on impeachment espoused by Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other prominent Democrats. Their thinking is that by impeaching Trump, Democrats turn him into a victim -- a role he relishes. And with the Republican-controlled Senate on record as planning to kill any impeachment attempt, most establishment Democrats view the whole thing very, very skeptically.
Of course, that view is informed by the moment -- and the politics of it. Polling suggests most Americans don't support impeachment and already believe Democrats have done enough investigating. Lichtman's 13 factors, on the other hand, don't deal in day-to-day politics or polling. They're based in broad, structural concepts he developed by studying every presidential election from 1860-1980.
Who's right? Who knows! But Lichtman's success in predicting winners means Democrats shouldn't simply ignore his advice on impeachment.

Lichtman was on OANN Tipping Point with Liz Wheeler last nite - and stated that Trump has 3 of the 13 criteria against him at this moment - if it goes to six elements against trump - prediction is he loses the election in 2020 per Lichtman's system.
an interesting take on predictions - and not based strictly on Polls with all the error possibilities.

SR - your comments would be appreciated. Both on Nov 2020 predictions and how Impeachment would affect the election
My guess is Pelosi is in agreement with Lichtman about Impeachment - and is waiting until the proper moment just before the election to have the house vote Articles of Impeachment against Trump.
I think it will backfire on them.

And Now - for the Axis of Socialism and non-constructive "you're a Nazi comments"!!!!!

Unless something comes up that would lead to impeachment AND conviction, I am totally against it. I don't think that "something" exists right now. I think impeachment would work against the Democrats.

As far as predicting the 2020 election, I continue to say it is too early to do so. Too much water to flow under the bridge. If the tariff war against China still exists in 2020, Trump will be in dire trouble. If he can come to some sort of agreement with China, whether it be a total, partial, or no victory at all, it will be to his benefit. His recent threat to force American companies to stop doing business with China is ridiculous. If he can do something to solve the immigration mess, it will be to his benefit.

What I will also continue to say is that in all likelihood the 2020 election will come down to possibly as few as 4 states -- Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

[bambino]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Unless something comes up that would lead to impeachment AND conviction, I am totally against it. I don't think that "something" exists right now. I think impeachment would work against the Democrats.

As far as predicting the 2020 election, I continue to say it is too early to do so. Too much water to flow under the bridge. If the tariff war against China still exists in 2020, Trump will be in dire trouble. If he can come to some sort of agreement with China, whether it be a total, partial, or no victory at all, it will be to his benefit. His recent threat to force American companies to stop doing business with China is ridiculous. If he can do something to solve the immigration mess, it will be to his benefit.

What I will also continue to say is that in all likelihood the 2020 election will come down to possibly as few as 4 states -- Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

He might flip states like NH and Minny. Clinton barely won them in 2016. Funny you never mention the states Hillary squeaked by. They’re in play as much as the ones you always mention.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by bambino

He might flip states like NH and Minny. Clinton barely won them in 2016. Funny you never mention the states Hillary squeaked by. They’re in play as much as the ones you always mention.

I've stated that I don't think Trump will win any of the states Clinton won in 2016. If anything, I see the Democratic candidate winning by a larger margin in 2020 in Minnesota. NH with 4 electoral votes is less significant than the others.

I also did not mention Ohio, Florida, NC, Iowa and Georgia which are also considered 2020 swing states but I cede to Trump at this point in time.

[themystic]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

I've stated that I don't think Trump will win any of the states Clinton won in 2016. If anything, I see the Democratic candidate winning by a larger margin in 2020 in Minnesota. NH with 4 electoral votes is less significant than the others.

I also did not mention Ohio, Florida, NC, Iowa and Georgia which are also considered 2020 swing states but I cede to Trump at this point in time.

Trump voters are in for a long haul. They are riding high right now but they know they are losing steam every day. Deep down the swing voters know that Trump aint worth it

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

I've stated that I don't think Trump will win any of the states Clinton won in 2016. If anything, I see the Democratic candidate winning by a larger margin in 2020 in Minnesota. NH with 4 electoral votes is less significant than the others.

I also did not mention Ohio, Florida, NC, Iowa and Georgia which are also considered 2020 swing states but I cede to Trump at this point in time.

Of the top 10 closest states in 2016, Trump had 6, Clinton 4. I think they all could be in play this early on.

1. Michigan 0.3 percent
Trump 47.6 percent, Clinton 47.3 percent
Difference: 13,080 votes

2. New Hampshire 0.4 percent
Clinton 47.6 percent, Trump 47.2 percent
Difference: 2,701 votes

3. Wisconsin 1 percent
Trump 47.9 percent, Clinton 46.9 percent
Difference: 27,257 votes

4. Pennsylvania 1.2 percent
Trump 48.8 percent, Clinton 47.6 percent
Difference: 68,236 votes

5. Florida 1.2 percent
Trump 49 percent, Clinton 47.8 percent
Difference: 114,455 votes

6. Minnesota 1.5 percent
Clinton 46.4 percent, Trump 44.9 percent
Difference: 44,470 votes

7. Nevada 2.4 percent
Clinton 47.9 percent, Trump 45.5 percent
Difference: 26,434 votes

8. Maine 2.7 percent
Clinton 47.9 percent, Trump 45.2 percent
Difference: 19,995 votes

9. North Carolina 3.8 percent
Trump 49.9 percent, Clinton 46.1 percent
Difference: 177,009 votes

10. Arizona 3.9 percent
Trump 49.3 percent, Clinton 45.4 percent
Difference: 91,682 votes

Originally Posted by themystic

Trump voters are in for a long haul. They are riding high right now but they know they are losing steam every day. Deep down the swing voters know that Trump aint worth it

Right now it's the Dem primary voters in for a long haul. It's gonna be BRUTAL with a capital "B".

And the end of that race will tell the tale of exactly where the Dem voters are riding come 2020 General election.

[bambino]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

I've stated that I don't think Trump will win any of the states Clinton won in 2016. If anything, I see the Democratic candidate winning by a larger margin in 2020 in Minnesota. NH with 4 electoral votes is less significant than the others.

I also did not mention Ohio, Florida, NC, Iowa and Georgia which are also considered 2020 swing states but I cede to Trump at this point in time.

I know you think that way. Only Trump states are in play. The ones Hillary barely won are solidly Democrat. I doubt it will work out that way. How can the Dems run a candidate who was more qualified than Hillary? According to Obama, the most qualified candidate in history!!!!!