'Unskewed' polls show nearly 8-point Romney lead

[Yssup Rider]

Grasping at straws inevitably results in a handful of straw.

Maybe you boys ought to grasp at titties!

[WTF]

Originally Posted by joe bloe

A new website has taken all the major polls and adjusted for skewed sampling techniques. The result is that Romney has a significant lead.


http://www.wnd.com/2012/09/unskewed-...t-romney-lead/

joe blow still thinks Dewey won.


http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=...C2&FORM=IQFRBA

[Guest040616]

Originally Posted by joe bloe

Yes, the election will be determined by the Electoral College vote;.

Yes, the election will be determined by the "Electoral College vote," not the popular vote! For an up to date sampling of the" Electoral College vote," let's take a look at the latest findings of "the very reliable RCP" (Whirly's words, not mine.)

Joe the Bloehard, please do not click on the link below. I am still holding out hope that you will take me up on the kind and generous wager of my $5 benjis for Obama and your $5 benjis for Romney.

http://www.politico.com/2012-election/swing-state/

Whoa Nellie, "the very reliable RCP" (Whirly's words, not mine) clearly shows that Obama is leading in every swing state and if the election were held today the final electoral vote count would be:

Drumroll please........................ .............................. .............................. ...........

Obama 347
Romney 191

Eat your heart out Joe the Bloehard!

PS: Marshy and/or ChoomCzar, since your good buddy Whirly is still missing in action would you please inform him that Wisconsin is now "trending" Obama?

[Randy4Candy]

"Skewing" pollsters, like commies in the 1950's, are under every bed.....

[cptjohnstone]

the guy has some really good points if you donkeys could read

Romney Pulls Ahead
By DICK MORRIS
Published on DickMorris.com on September 25, 2012

Printer-Friendly Version

The published polling in this year's presidential race is unusually inaccurate because this is the first election in which who votes determines how they vote. Obama's massive leads among blacks, Latinos, young people, and single women vie with Romney's margin among the elderly, married white women, and white men. Tell me your demographic and I'll tell you who you're voting for and I'll be right at least two times out of three!

Most pollsters are weighting their data on the assumption that the 2012 electorate will turn out in the same proportion as the 2008 voters did. But polling indicates a distinct lack of enthusiasm for the president among his core constituency. He'll still carry them by heavy margins, but the turnout will likely lag behind the 2008 stats. (The 2008 turnout was totally unlike that in other years with all-time historic high turnouts among Obama's main demographic groups).

Specifically, most pollsters are using 2008 party preferences to weight their 2012 survey samples, reflecting a much larger Democratic preference than is now really the case.

In my own polling, I found a lurch to the Democrats right after their convention, but subsequent research indicates that it has since petered out. Indeed, when one compares party identification in the August and September polls of this year in swing states, the Democratic Party identification is flat while the ranks of Republicans rose by an average of two points per state.

Pollster Scott Rasmussen has the best solution to the party id problem. He weights his polls to reflect the unweighted party identification of the previous three weeks, so he has a dynamic model which adjusts for sampling error but still takes account of gradual changes in the electorate's partisan preferences.

Finally, with Obama below 50% of the vote in most swing states, he is hitting up against a glass ceiling in the high 40s. He can't get past it except in heavily Democratic states like New York or California. The first time Obama breaks 50 will not be on Election Day. Either he consistently polls above 50% of the vote or he won't ever get there in the actual vote.

So here's where the race really stands today based on Rasmussen's polling:

• Romney leads decisively in all states McCain carried (173 electoral votes).

• Romney is more than ten points ahead in Indiana - which Obama carried. (11 electoral votes)

• Romney leads Obama in the following states the president carried in 2008: Iowa (44-47) North Carolina (45-51), Colorado (45-47), and New Hampshire (45-48). He'll probably win them all. (34 electoral votes).

This comes to 218 of the 270 Romney needs. But...

• Obama is below 50% of the vote in a handful of key swing states and leads Romney by razor thin margins in each one. All these states will go for Romney unless and until Obama can show polling support of 50% of the vote:

• Obama leads in Ohio (47-46) and Virginia (49-48) by only 1 point (31 electoral votes)

• Obama leads in Florida (48-460) and Nevada (47-45) by only 2 points (35 electoral votes)

If Romney carries Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, he wins. And other states are in play.

• Obama leads in Wisconsin (49-46) by only 3 points (10 electoral votes)

• Obama's lead in Michigan is down to four points according to a recent statewide poll

• Obama is only getting 51% of the vote in Pennsylvania and 53% in New Jersey. And don't count out New Mexico.

It would be accurate to describe the race now as tied. But Romney has the edge because:

• The incumbent is under 50% in key states and nationally. He will probably lose any state where he is below 50% of the vote.

• The Republican enthusiasm and likelihood of voting is higher

• The GOP field organization is better.

That's the real state of play today.

[TexTushHog]

If these assholes have such great points, why can't I get anybody to take e up on a bet??!! Since zromney has such a big lead, give me some odds and I'll cover action up,to $10,000. I'm no even asking for 2:1. How about 3:2??

[Guest040616]

Originally Posted by TexTushHog

If these assholes have such great points, why can't I get anybody to take e up on a bet??!! Since zromney has such a big lead, give me some odds and I'll cover action up,to $10,000. I'm no even asking for 2:1. How about 3:2??

It's really quite simple! The bloeviaters boldly make grand projections of a Mitt victory but at the end of the day they know how bad of a candidate Gaffeney really is.

Instead they cut and run from Mitt as fast as they can! They are not going to foolishly put their money on Mitt Gaffeney..

Perhaps they are smarter than they appear.

[markroxny]

Debunked by Rachel Maddow

But what struck me as especially interesting this morning was today's edition of "Fox & Friends," where the hosts not only endorsed the notion that pollsters are over-sampling Democrats, but also that the problem is sending a bad "psychological message" to Americans.
Here's a quick follow-up question for the hosts: is their own network in on this?
Fox News released a poll earlier this month showing President Obama leading Mitt Romney nationally by five points. Late last week, Fox News also released survey results that found Obama leading Romney by seven points in Ohio, six points in Florida, and seven points in Virginia. In an odd twist, Fox News polling shows Obama doing better in these critical battleground states than Public Policy Polling did, and PPP is often considered a Democratic-leaning pollster.
In other words, when "Fox & Friends" accuses pollsters of sending a bad "psychological message" to the electorate by releasing results Republicans don't like, they're inadvertently condemning their own network.
Leave it to Fox News to identify a polling conspiracy so insidious that Fox News is actually part of the polling conspiracy.

http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/20...age-worse?lite



True polling data
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...171.html#polls

[Guest102513-1]

I see joeblow still has not responded to posters attempts to call him out with a bet

So typical of these radicals...call them out, and they go crawling back to their little holes, lol

[TexTushHog]

Here's another wrong poll.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-...-swing-states/

Democrats are being lulled into overconfidence!! please come take my money!!!!

[budman33]

Originally Posted by ChoomCzar

I can't wait for the November 6 "Republican voter fraud" attacks........you can bet on it!......HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA!

careful there. soon the HA HA H A HA will become a hundred smiley faces then you'llhave to devise a new name.


shhhhhhhhh... iksnay on the ArshallMay lunacy

[Laz]

In about 2 weeks I will start taking the polls seriously. Right now if they are correct it is simply by accident.

[Guest102513-1]

Interesting bit CNN had yesterday...with all the pre-election date voting, as much as 40% of the final vote tally could be done before Nov 1st.

Used to be just military folks, but now has spread out to general population

[IIFFOFRDB]

Odorkslaps...LOL http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=74cFP...eature=mh_lolz

[i'va biggen]

Romney is 10 points behind in Ohio no one has won without Ohio...