Saudi Oil Production Cut by 5 million BOPD as a result of Houthi drone attack

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by Chung Tran

from what I read, there is a possibility the shortfall will be made up by Monday. I doubt that..

I'll go with $59.88 for Monday's closing price.. it is currently at $54.82, Friday's closing price. it may trade in the $61 area, before settling back.

It looks like we'll both be in the ballpark. It opened at 5:00 PM at $61.48, traded up to $63.34, and now is at $60.23

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by LuvHerMadlyEverytime

When did Yemen and Saudi became enemies?

Since the Iranians began to stir up shit in Yemen through their Shiite proxy, the Houthis.

This was written before the recent drone attacks on Abqaiq:


Iran’s Other Terror Front

Using the Houthis as its proxy, the Iranian regime has established a strategic outpost in war-torn Yemen.

By Brian Hook
Sept. 9, 2019 6:39 pm ET

Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, is playing a long game in Yemen and few in the world seem to have noticed. With Iran’s patronage, the Houthis—a Shiite political movement—carried out a coup in 2014, plunging the country into chaos. Iran’s support elevated the Shia Houthis from a tribal militia to a lethal fighting force. Now, the Iranian regime wants a seat at the negotiating table to help resolve a war it helped instigate.

Whatever the ultimate outcome in Yemen, Iran has successfully expanded its threat network and positioned itself as a power broker in the Arabian peninsula. Tehran has been using this playbook for decades. In the early 1980s, Iran began supporting various Shia extremist groups in Lebanon. The Iranian regime systematically scaled up its assistance and assembled the most violent factions into a cohesive military organization, which eventually called itself Hezbollah.

During the 1990s, Iran cemented its influence in Lebanon through Hezbollah. The Iranian regime provides the militant group with 70% of its operating budget, precision rockets and small arms, and a steady stream of military experts. Hezbollah’s military prowess enabled it to become a state within a state, which, in turn, enabled Iran to extend its own borders, export Shia revolution, and target Israelis and Americans. Hezbollah has killed more Americans than any terrorist group other than al Qaeda.

Today, the parallels in Iran’s approach to Yemen are unmistakable. As it did in Lebanon four decades ago, Iran is using Yemen to increase its status as a regional power. Iranian assistance has allowed the Houthis to challenge the authority of the Yemeni government in ways that otherwise wouldn’t have been possible. Iran has provided the Houthis with hundreds of millions of dollars and an arsenal of advanced weaponry. Antiship missiles, explosive-laden boats and mines have poured into Yemen, thanks to Mr. Khamenei. The United Arab Emirates has seized Iranian-manufactured unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs, in Yemen. On a recent visit to the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, I toured warehouses of clearly marked Iranian weapons interdicted en route to the Houthis.

Iran’s strategic alliance with the Houthis allows them to target Gulf nations at will with missile and UAV attacks, and to inspire, organize, and direct militant separatist groups in Saudi Arabia’s provinces. The Houthis have launched Iranian-origin missiles at population centers such as Riyadh, hundreds of miles away.

For decades, Iran has threatened freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Its alliance with the Houthis now allows Iran to threaten ship traffic in the Bab el-Mandeb strait, which is the gateway to the Red Sea, Suez Canal and, ultimately, the Mediterranean. Between them, these straits carry as much as a quarter of the world’s oil supply. Give Iran a free hand in Yemen and it can threaten to close both of these essential waterways and commit acts of maritime aggression. In March 2016, the Houthis launched multiple missile attacks at the USS Mason as it cruised the Bab el-Mandeb strait.

In Yemen today Iran is effectively extending its borders, enlarging its sphere of influence, and launching lethal attacks against rivals. From its new perch on the Gulf of Aden, Iran can threaten U.S. allies and partners in the region and disrupt the stability that we have worked so hard to achieve.

If the U.S. fails to address Iran’s grand strategy in Yemen, we will face greater risk in the future, including the potential “Lebanonization” of the country. In fact, newly declassified information shows that Hezbollah is actively supporting the Houthi cause in Yemen, bringing Iran’s proxy network full circle. By controlling and deploying groups like the Houthis and Hezbollah, Tehran can conduct warfare through indigenous third parties in multiple theaters simultaneously.

The Trump administration is focused on reversing Iran’s strategic gains in the region as part of the “maximum pressure” campaign. In Yemen, this requires a comprehensive political agreement bringing together all legitimate parties to end the humanitarian crisis and prevent Iran from laying deep roots.

Iran has no legitimate interests in Yemen. The Houthis have little to gain and a lot to lose by continuing their partnership with Iran. The Houthis can either support a genuine political effort for peace in Yemen and enjoy the benefits—or continue to promote violence and advance Iran’s regional ambitions. The former will bring legitimacy and a seat at the table; the latter will lead to isolation and prolong the suffering of the Yemeni people.

The media has done a poor job of reporting on Iran’s role in intensifying and prolonging the tragic conflict in Yemen. This has allowed Iran to escape blame for the violence, famine and human suffering, which have become the Iranian regime’s leading exports. The U.S. government is shedding light on Iran’s culpability and its hegemonic aims. As we strive to constrain Iranian expansion in Lebanon, Syria, the Golan Heights, and Iraq, we must also prevent Iran from entrenching itself in Yemen. The world must come to terms with Iran’s ambitions and counter them, or the Iranian Crescent will soon enough become a full moon.

Mr. Hook is U.S. special representative for Iran and senior policy adviser to the secretary of state.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/irans-o...nt-11568068776

[Jackie S]

Originally Posted by Tiny

The Saudis and the Houthi ethnic group have been at each other’s throats for years. The Houthis are backed by Iran. Saudi attacks have been vicious and there was bipartisan support in our Congress to try to stop the slaughter of the Houthis. Saudi Arabia actually backs the government of Yemen and I think is on friendly terms with a third group that’s trying to overthrow the government. It’s a very messy situation.

And it looks like it’s going to get a whole lot messier. The Houthis publicly claimed responsibility for the attack. However, some, including Mike Pompeo, believe the drone attacks were launched by Iran or Iranian surrogates from southern Iraq. Remember that the majority of Iraq is Shia Muslim, like Iran, and the two governments are on friendly terms. Yemen is nowhere near the facility that was damaged. Southern Iraq is next door.

So say it takes the Saudis a while to get production back up. Or more attacks are launched keeping production off stream. The price of oil goes over $100 per barrel. Do you allow Iranian oil to come back on stream? That’s not going to happen if left up to the USA but Europe, China, and Japan, who would actually buy the oil, might make it happen.

Iran said today it’s not responsible and is ready for war.

It's just more of that Muslim Shit that the world has to endure because billions of people choose to follow the teachings of a mass murdering pedophile.

The Shiites hate the Sunnis, and vica-versa. And they are willing to kill each other, and anybody else Inthe name of their "Prophet".

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by lustylad

Since the Iranians began to stir up shit in Yemen through their Shiite proxy, the Houthis.

This was written before the recent drone attacks on Abqaiq:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/irans-o...nt-11568068776

I had a bit of sympathy for the Houthis because I read this article when it came out. Actually dislike for the Saudi coalition fighting the Houthis would be more accurate:

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2...in-yemen-worse

After reading your article and the "Houthi Movement" on Wikipedia, now I think they're bad guys. There are no good guys in Yemen, except the helpless civilians who take the fallout. Winn Dixie's description is accurate, as applied to Yemen anyway:

Originally Posted by winn dixie

Sad to say.. But the middle east is stuck in a never ending perpetual war.

The official Houthi slogan is "God is great, death to the US, death to Israel, curse to the Jews, and victory for Islam." On the other hand, they fight Al Qaeda and ISIS, and if we sent $500 million a year in weaponry their way they might be willing to change the slogan to "Death to Iran." That is, they don't appear to be as ideological as Hezbollah. Still, the analogy of Yemen to Lebanon in the 1990's in the WSJ article, or better yet the 1980's, is a good one.

Yes, Iran's involvement in Yemen, like Syria and Lebanon, is based more on self interest and antipathy towards Saudi Arabia, the USA and Israel than kinship with its Shia brothers. According to the New Yorker article, they're not pumping a lot of money into Yemen, maybe something in the tens of millions per year, compared to billions being spent by the Saudis and UAE. It's an opportunity for them to get a lot of bang for the buck.

Thanks to hydraulic fracturing, and no thanks to the tree huggers who stopped the Keystone Pipeline, we're not hostage to events in the Middle East. We're a net exporter of oil and refined products. It's the Chinese, the Japanese and the Europeans who are going to suffer the worst if the Straits of Hormuz or the Suez Canal is shut down. Yes, Hook's right in the WSJ article, "The world must come to terms with Iran’s ambitions and counter them, or the Iranian Crescent will soon enough become a full moon." I'm not sure we're the ones who should be doing the heavy lifting though.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by Jackie S

It's just more of that Muslim Shit that the world has to endure because billions of people choose to follow the teachings of a mass murdering pedophile.

The Shiites hate the Sunnis, and vica-versa. And they are willing to kill each other, and anybody else Inthe name of their "Prophet".

It's worse than that. If you're a Sunni and you're not radical enough they kill you. If you belong to the wrong tribe, they kill you. The Houthis have both Shia and Sunni fighters, although there are a lot more Shia.

[dilbert firestorm]

Originally Posted by Tiny

I had a bit of sympathy for the Houthis because I read this article when it came out. Actually dislike for the Saudi coalition fighting the Houthis would be more accurate:

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2...in-yemen-worse

After reading your article and the "Houthi Movement" on Wikipedia, now I think they're bad guys. There are no good guys in Yemen, except the helpless civilians who take the fallout. Winn Dixie's description is accurate, as applied to Yemen anyway:



The official Houthi slogan is "God is great, death to the US, death to Israel, curse to the Jews, and victory for Islam." On the other hand, they fight Al Qaeda and ISIS, and if we sent $500 million a year in weaponry their way they might be willing to change the slogan to "Death to Iran." That is, they don't appear to be as ideological as Hezbollah. Still, the analogy of Yemen to Lebanon in the 1990's in the WSJ article, or better yet the 1980's, is a good one.

Yes, Iran's involvement in Yemen, like Syria and Lebanon, is based more on self interest and antipathy towards Saudi Arabia, the USA and Israel than kinship with its Shia brothers. According to the New Yorker article, they're not pumping a lot of money into Yemen, maybe something in the tens of millions per year, compared to billions being spent by the Saudis and UAE. It's an opportunity for them to get a lot of bang for the buck.

Thanks to hydraulic fracturing, and no thanks to the tree huggers who stopped the Keystone Pipeline, we're not hostage to events in the Middle East. We're a net exporter of oil and refined products. It's the Chinese, the Japanese and the Europeans who are going to suffer the worst if the Straits of Hormuz or the Suez Canal is shut down. Yes, Hook's right in the WSJ article, "The world must come to terms with Iran’s ambitions and counter them, or the Iranian Crescent will soon enough become a full moon." I'm not sure we're the ones who should be doing the heavy lifting though.

I think you maybe spot on Houthis. they have their own agenda... which may not square with Iran but may align on some other Iranian issues.


Houthis used to run part of Yemen for a thousand years before they were overthrown by Egypt. don't have details on why Egypt did this, but I suspect its because they were shia and its also a strategic area.


i've got more sympathy for the Houthis than the so-called saudi coalition fronting a sore loser.

[Yssup Rider]

Didn’t Trump say he was going to was with Iran over this?

[bambino]

Originally Posted by Yssup Rider

Didn’t Trump say he was going to was with Iran over this?

Maybe you should go to “was”.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by dilbert firestorm

I think you maybe spot on Houthis. they have their own agenda... which may not square with Iran but may align on some other Iranian issues.


Houthis used to run part of Yemen for a thousand years before they were overthrown by Egypt. don't have details on why Egypt did this, but I suspect its because they were shia and its also a strategic area.


i've got more sympathy for the Houthis than the so-called saudi coalition fronting a sore loser.

What soured me on the Houthis were the "Allegations of Human Rights Violations" here,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthi_movement

Still, I agree, I've got more "sympathy", if that's the right word, for them than the Saudi Coalition.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by Yssup Rider

Didn’t Trump say he was going to was with Iran over this?

It's hard to know exactly who and what we're "locked and loaded" on. I think Trump's response, if he's convinced the Iranians are directly responsible, would be proportional, maybe knock out an oil refinery. Trump's Iranian strategy is a lot like his North Korean strategy - talk tough to try to scare the shit out of them, impose punishing sanctions, and hold direct talks with our opponents. It's not working so well with the Ayatollahs though.

[Ex-CEO]

A few people I've talked to feel the oil price outlook over the next 6-12 months is still generally bearish due to global economic trends, especially as regards China and much of Europe. Of course, any kinetic action against taken against Iran's assets would likely produce a sharp spike and the chance to employ some exceptionally juicy trading opportunities for those so inclined.



I think it's notable that this action, whether it turns out to have been conducted by the Houthis or directly by Iran, was undertaken right after John Bolton was shown the door. In any event, it does seem to me that the Iranian mullahs likely regard Trump as a paper tiger with a penchant for blustering a lot, but doing little else, so are likely to continue aggressively pushing the envelope.


If so, we are in for a very chaotic next few months.

[bambino]

Originally Posted by Ex-CEO

A few people I've talked to feel the oil price outlook over the next 6-12 months is still generally bearish due to global economic trends, especially as regards China and much of Europe. Of course, any kinetic action against taken against Iran's assets would likely produce a sharp spike and the chance to employ some exceptionally juicy trading opportunities for those so inclined.



I think it's notable that this action, whether it turns out to have been conducted by the Houthis or directly by Iran, was undertaken right after John Bolton was shown the door. In any event, it does seem to me that the Iranian mullahs likely regard Trump as a paper tiger with a penchant for blustering a lot, but doing little else, so are likely to continue aggressively pushing the envelope.


If so, we are in for a very chaotic next few months.

Paper Tiger? He ripped up the Obama agreement and reinstated stifling sanctions. Trumps like a cat slapping a mouse around.

[Ex-CEO]

Originally Posted by bambino

Paper Tiger? He ripped up the Obama agreement and reinstated stifling sanctions. Trumps like a cat slapping a mouse around.

Yes, he did jettison that ridiculous "agreement," which I regard as a good thing. What I'm referring to is the notion (likely held by the Iranian mullahs, in my opinion) that Trump may insinuate that he's in favor of military action against Iran, but dare not undertake it. So the mullahs likely think they can do almost anything short of attacking a U.S. Navy ship without risking a painful military attack on their assets.



Also, I think it's likely the mullahs feel that if they can sow enough chaos in the region, they can get oil prices to levels that may largely compensate for the sanctions.


The Iranians have a very poor hand. Even so, I think it's doubtful that they will play it very well.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by Ex-CEO

Also, I think it's likely the mullahs feel that if they can sow enough chaos in the region, they can get oil prices to levels that may largely compensate for the sanctions.


The Iranians have a very poor hand. Even so, I think it's doubtful that they will play it very well.

With the sanctions that are in place right now, their oil exports are a trickle. So higher prices won't help them directly. However, say the Straits of Hormuz are shut off from tanker traffic and the price of oil goes to $100+ per barrel. Then, as suggested by eccielover, the USA would come under pressure to give them sanctions relief and get the oil flowing again.

Your thoughts about oil prices in your earlier post make sense. You've got Iranian and Venezuelan exports largely shut off, and there's still not a lot of pressure on prices. The other side of the coin, the rig count in the U.S. unconventional plays has been falling, as a result of lower oil prices and Wall Street demanding free cash flow from producers. According to a survey of producers that was out recently, they need a price around $50 per barrel to make a profit in the Permian Basin and other U.S. shale plays. Looking out beyond 12 months, a price around $65 per barrel may represent a medium term cap, because around that price you'll see activity in the U.S. pick up quickly, making it where OPEC and Russia would have to cut too much to prop up prices.

[themystic]

Originally Posted by bambino

Paper Tiger? He ripped up the Obama agreement and reinstated stifling sanctions. Trumps like a cat slapping a mouse around.

You heard the man. Paper Tiger. That defines his foreign policy thus far.