Main Menu |
Most Favorited Images |
Recently Uploaded Images |
Most Liked Images |
Top Reviewers |
cockalatte |
645 |
MoneyManMatt |
490 |
Still Looking |
399 |
samcruz |
399 |
Jon Bon |
389 |
Harley Diablo |
375 |
honest_abe |
362 |
DFW_Ladies_Man |
313 |
Chung Tran |
288 |
lupegarland |
287 |
nicemusic |
285 |
You&Me |
281 |
Starscream66 |
273 |
George Spelvin |
261 |
sharkman29 |
255 |
|
Top Posters |
DallasRain | 70672 | biomed1 | 62316 | Yssup Rider | 60189 | gman44 | 53216 | LexusLover | 51038 | offshoredrilling | 48375 | WTF | 48267 | pyramider | 46370 | bambino | 41215 | CryptKicker | 37176 | Mokoa | 36491 | Chung Tran | 36100 | Still Looking | 35944 | The_Waco_Kid | 35624 | Mojojo | 33117 |
|
|
09-25-2012, 03:58 PM
|
#16
|
BANNED
Join Date: Jan 3, 2010
Location: Clarksville
Posts: 60,189
|
Grasping at straws inevitably results in a handful of straw.
Maybe you boys ought to grasp at titties!
|
|
Quote
![Like](/images/like.png) | 1 user liked this post
|
09-25-2012, 07:04 PM
|
#18
|
Account Disabled
Join Date: Dec 23, 2009
Location: Central Texas
Posts: 15,047
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by joe bloe
Yes, the election will be determined by the Electoral College vote;.
|
Yes, the election will be determined by the "Electoral College vote," not the popular vote! For an up to date sampling of the" Electoral College vote," let's take a look at the latest findings of "the very reliable RCP" (Whirly's words, not mine.)
Joe the Bloehard, please do not click on the link below. I am still holding out hope that you will take me up on the kind and generous wager of my $5 benjis for Obama and your $5 benjis for Romney.
http://www.politico.com/2012-election/swing-state/
Whoa Nellie, "the very reliable RCP" (Whirly's words, not mine) clearly shows that Obama is leading in every swing state and if the election were held today the final electoral vote count would be:
Drumroll please........................ .............................. .............................. ...........
Obama 347
Romney 191
Eat your heart out Joe the Bloehard!
PS: Marshy and/or ChoomCzar, since your good buddy Whirly is still missing in action would you please inform him that Wisconsin is now "trending" Obama?
|
|
Quote
![Like](/images/like.png) | 1 user liked this post
|
09-25-2012, 08:39 PM
|
#19
|
Valued Poster
Join Date: Mar 30, 2009
Location: Hwy 380 Revisited
Posts: 3,333
|
"Skewing" pollsters, like commies in the 1950's, are under every bed.....
|
|
Quote
![Like](/images/like.png) | 1 user liked this post
|
09-25-2012, 09:28 PM
|
#20
|
Valued Poster
Join Date: Jan 4, 2010
Location: Stillwater, OK
Posts: 3,631
|
the guy has some really good points if you donkeys could read
Romney Pulls Ahead
By DICK MORRIS
Published on DickMorris.com on September 25, 2012
Printer-Friendly Version
The published polling in this year's presidential race is unusually inaccurate because this is the first election in which who votes determines how they vote. Obama's massive leads among blacks, Latinos, young people, and single women vie with Romney's margin among the elderly, married white women, and white men. Tell me your demographic and I'll tell you who you're voting for and I'll be right at least two times out of three!
Most pollsters are weighting their data on the assumption that the 2012 electorate will turn out in the same proportion as the 2008 voters did. But polling indicates a distinct lack of enthusiasm for the president among his core constituency. He'll still carry them by heavy margins, but the turnout will likely lag behind the 2008 stats. (The 2008 turnout was totally unlike that in other years with all-time historic high turnouts among Obama's main demographic groups).
Specifically, most pollsters are using 2008 party preferences to weight their 2012 survey samples, reflecting a much larger Democratic preference than is now really the case.
In my own polling, I found a lurch to the Democrats right after their convention, but subsequent research indicates that it has since petered out. Indeed, when one compares party identification in the August and September polls of this year in swing states, the Democratic Party identification is flat while the ranks of Republicans rose by an average of two points per state.
Pollster Scott Rasmussen has the best solution to the party id problem. He weights his polls to reflect the unweighted party identification of the previous three weeks, so he has a dynamic model which adjusts for sampling error but still takes account of gradual changes in the electorate's partisan preferences.
Finally, with Obama below 50% of the vote in most swing states, he is hitting up against a glass ceiling in the high 40s. He can't get past it except in heavily Democratic states like New York or California. The first time Obama breaks 50 will not be on Election Day. Either he consistently polls above 50% of the vote or he won't ever get there in the actual vote.
So here's where the race really stands today based on Rasmussen's polling:
• Romney leads decisively in all states McCain carried (173 electoral votes).
• Romney is more than ten points ahead in Indiana - which Obama carried. (11 electoral votes)
• Romney leads Obama in the following states the president carried in 2008: Iowa (44-47) North Carolina (45-51), Colorado (45-47), and New Hampshire (45-48). He'll probably win them all. (34 electoral votes).
This comes to 218 of the 270 Romney needs. But...
• Obama is below 50% of the vote in a handful of key swing states and leads Romney by razor thin margins in each one. All these states will go for Romney unless and until Obama can show polling support of 50% of the vote:
• Obama leads in Ohio (47-46) and Virginia (49-48) by only 1 point (31 electoral votes)
• Obama leads in Florida (48-460) and Nevada (47-45) by only 2 points (35 electoral votes)
If Romney carries Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, he wins. And other states are in play.
• Obama leads in Wisconsin (49-46) by only 3 points (10 electoral votes)
• Obama's lead in Michigan is down to four points according to a recent statewide poll
• Obama is only getting 51% of the vote in Pennsylvania and 53% in New Jersey. And don't count out New Mexico.
It would be accurate to describe the race now as tied. But Romney has the edge because:
• The incumbent is under 50% in key states and nationally. He will probably lose any state where he is below 50% of the vote.
• The Republican enthusiasm and likelihood of voting is higher
• The GOP field organization is better.
That's the real state of play today.
|
|
Quote
![Like](/images/like.png) | 2 users liked this post
|
09-26-2012, 03:05 AM
|
#21
|
Professional Tush Hog.
Join Date: Mar 27, 2009
Location: Here and there.
Posts: 8,948
|
If these assholes have such great points, why can't I get anybody to take e up on a bet??!! Since zromney has such a big lead, give me some odds and I'll cover action up,to $10,000. I'm no even asking for 2:1. How about 3:2??
|
|
Quote
![Like](/images/like.png) | 1 user liked this post
|
09-26-2012, 05:03 AM
|
#22
|
Account Disabled
Join Date: Dec 23, 2009
Location: Central Texas
Posts: 15,047
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by TexTushHog
If these assholes have such great points, why can't I get anybody to take e up on a bet??!! Since zromney has such a big lead, give me some odds and I'll cover action up,to $10,000. I'm no even asking for 2:1. How about 3:2??
|
It's really quite simple! The bloeviaters boldly make grand projections of a Mitt victory but at the end of the day they know how bad of a candidate Gaffeney really is.
Instead they cut and run from Mitt as fast as they can! They are not going to foolishly put their money on Mitt Gaffeney..
Perhaps they are smarter than they appear.
|
|
Quote
![Like](/images/like.png) | 1 user liked this post
|
09-26-2012, 07:49 AM
|
#23
|
Valued Poster
Join Date: Aug 4, 2012
Location: Harlem
Posts: 1,614
|
Debunked by Rachel Maddow
Quote:
But what struck me as especially interesting this morning was today's edition of "Fox & Friends," where the hosts not only endorsed the notion that pollsters are over-sampling Democrats, but also that the problem is sending a bad "psychological message" to Americans.
Here's a quick follow-up question for the hosts: is their own network in on this?
Fox News released a poll earlier this month showing President Obama leading Mitt Romney nationally by five points. Late last week, Fox News also released survey results that found Obama leading Romney by seven points in Ohio, six points in Florida, and seven points in Virginia. In an odd twist, Fox News polling shows Obama doing better in these critical battleground states than Public Policy Polling did, and PPP is often considered a Democratic-leaning pollster.
In other words, when "Fox & Friends" accuses pollsters of sending a bad "psychological message" to the electorate by releasing results Republicans don't like, they're inadvertently condemning their own network.
Leave it to Fox News to identify a polling conspiracy so insidious that Fox News is actually part of the polling conspiracy.
|
http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/20...age-worse?lite
True polling data
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...171.html#polls
|
|
Quote
![Like](/images/like.png) | 1 user liked this post
|
09-26-2012, 01:05 PM
|
#24
|
Account Disabled
Join Date: Jan 24, 2010
Posts: 3,039
|
I see joeblow still has not responded to posters attempts to call him out with a bet
So typical of these radicals...call them out, and they go crawling back to their little holes, lol
|
|
Quote
![Like](/images/like.png) | 1 user liked this post
|
09-26-2012, 02:37 PM
|
#25
|
Professional Tush Hog.
Join Date: Mar 27, 2009
Location: Here and there.
Posts: 8,948
|
Here's another wrong poll.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-...-swing-states/
Democrats are being lulled into overconfidence!! please come take my money!!!!
|
|
Quote
![Like](/images/like.png) | 1 user liked this post
|
09-26-2012, 02:45 PM
|
#26
|
Valued Poster
Join Date: Oct 30, 2009
Location: Houston
Posts: 1,648
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChoomCzar
I can't wait for the November 6 "Republican voter fraud" attacks........you can bet on it!......HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA! HA!
|
careful there. soon the HA HA H A HA will become a hundred smiley faces then you'llhave to devise a new name.
shhhhhhhhh... iksnay on the ArshallMay lunacy
|
|
Quote
![Like](/images/like.png) | 1 user liked this post
|
09-26-2012, 02:55 PM
|
#27
|
Valued Poster
Join Date: Aug 14, 2011
Location: San Antonio
Posts: 2,280
|
In about 2 weeks I will start taking the polls seriously. Right now if they are correct it is simply by accident.
|
|
Quote
![Like](/images/like.png) | 1 user liked this post
|
09-26-2012, 05:50 PM
|
#28
|
Account Disabled
Join Date: Jan 24, 2010
Posts: 3,039
|
Interesting bit CNN had yesterday...with all the pre-election date voting, as much as 40% of the final vote tally could be done before Nov 1st.
Used to be just military folks, but now has spread out to general population
|
|
Quote
![Like](/images/like.png) | 1 user liked this post
|
09-26-2012, 06:02 PM
|
#29
|
Account Disabled
Join Date: Jun 19, 2011
Location: Dixie Land
Posts: 22,098
|
|
|
Quote
![Like](/images/like.png) | 1 user liked this post
|
09-26-2012, 06:19 PM
|
#30
|
Account Disabled
Join Date: Jan 20, 2011
Location: kansas
Posts: 28,773
|
Romney is 10 points behind in Ohio no one has won without Ohio...
|
|
Quote
![Like](/images/like.png) | 1 user liked this post
|
|
AMPReviews.net |
Find Ladies |
Hot Women |
|