Crime in major cities is out of control: a solution

[royamcr]

Originally Posted by matchingmole

Crime is bad in Kansas City also

Depends on what part of KC like in most big cities. There are crime ridden parts where it is dangerous, then other parts where it generally isn't, especially life threatening danger. Most property crime in KC stems from the crime ridden areas on the east side. Criminals know where the money is and go to those places to look for easy marks.

[texassapper]

meh. Who cares? The voters in those cities keep voting for Democrats (or at least they don't oppose the steal). They are getting EXACTLY what they deserve. Let them kill each other, abort their kids, and generally behave like animals... as long as they stay in their hoods, nobody I know has any issue with it.

[the_real_Barleycorn]

In 2020, KCMO set a record for murders. In 2021, KCMO set a record for murders. In 2023, KCMO is on track to break the old record for murders but their Mayor, Quinton Lucas, also says that crime OVERALL is down. Another thing that is down... the number of cops. We had some trouble back in 2020 like so many other cities. KCMO has a retail space called The Plaza. Antifa and BLM showed up to pallets of brick bats and frozen water bottles. 200 arrests were made. Everyone was turned loose by a vote of the city council. Most with no charges. They had been arrested for assaulting police officers and vandalism. In case you don't know it. Back in 2008, the entire city council went to Denver to support the nomination of Barack Obama. So, know which party they belong to.

[69in2it69]

Originally Posted by the_real_Barleycorn

In 2020, KCMO set a record for murders. In 2021, KCMO set a record for murders. In 2023, KCMO is on track to break the old record for murders but their Mayor, Quinton Lucas, also says that crime OVERALL is down. Another thing that is down... the number of cops. We had some trouble back in 2020 like so many other cities. KCMO has a retail space called The Plaza. Antifa and BLM showed up to pallets of brick bats and frozen water bottles. 200 arrests were made. Everyone was turned loose by a vote of the city council. Most with no charges. They had been arrested for assaulting police officers and vandalism. In case you don't know it. Back in 2008, the entire city council went to Denver to support the nomination of Barack Obama. So, know which party they belong to.

Maybe you can share some insight with Jim Jordan, who as a retrumplican doesn't appear do be able to handle it in his district.

[Jackie S]

Originally Posted by texassapper

meh. Who cares? The voters in those cities keep voting for Democrats (or at least they don't oppose the steal). They are getting EXACTLY what they deserve. Let them kill each other, abort their kids, and generally behave like animals... as long as they stay in their hoods, nobody I know has any issue with it.

^^^^^^^^

[Precious_b]

Originally Posted by Jackie S

The solution to the problem of major cities run by Democrats turning into crime infested shit holes is already being solved..

People and businesses are moving out.

So why the repubs complaining? "Not In My Backyard" Think they'd have a chance at the ballot box with fewer dems killing themselves.

Originally Posted by Levianon17

Crime is up in most cities pure and simple. You're trying to say crime is very low, it's not.

Just need someone to quote the top heap of liars, damn liars, statisticians.

Originally Posted by matchingmole

Crime is bad in Kansas City also

But the Hobby is great there.

Originally Posted by royamcr

Experts say New York is not experiencing a crime wave
So is it accurate to say New York in the grips of a crime wave?

Some experts say not at all.

"Putting shooting and homicide crimes into context, we're a much safer city than we were 30 years ago," says assistant professor Christopher Herrmann, a criminologist at John Jay College of Criminal Justice. He's formerly with the NYPD and has been studying the city's crime trends for years. Herrmann says last year there were 438 murders; there were nearly 2,000 three decades ago, in 1993.

Ahead of the hearing, Herrmann decided to compare New York City crime rates with rates in Columbus, Ohio, which Congressman Jordan represents. "We see that you're 4.3 times more likely to be killed in Columbus, Ohio, than Manhattan. And you see that 7.3 times as many cars per capita are being stolen in Columbus, Ohio, than in Manhattan."

It's a downward trend that continues for New York. According to NYPD, in March 2023, New York City saw a 26.1% drop in shooting incidents compared to this time last year. And homicides fell by 11.4%.

So why are some New Yorkers alarmed? One reason might be that crimes spiked quite significantly during the pandemic. But Herrmann points out that this was not a phenomenon exclusive to New York. Crime soared across the U.S., especially carjackings. There was also a spike in hate crimes, particularly anti-Asian.

The good news is that things have been settling down, and the downward trend is continuing: Crime rates have been dropping precipitously since the '90s in New York. There is one caveat, he says: While there are fewer shootings in the city, an increasing percentage of them are by and against young people.

And we got a person quoting stats finally!

Originally Posted by texassapper

meh. Who cares? The voters in those cities keep voting for Democrats (or at least they don't oppose the steal). They are getting EXACTLY what they deserve. Let them kill each other, abort their kids, and generally behave like animals... as long as they stay in their hoods, nobody I know has any issue with it.

One repub who gets it.

[VerySkeptical]

Once again, barley boy is lying his ass off and once again he shows no proof of his claim.

Why does barley boy lie on a regular basis? He is so easy to catch it shows he can barely read let alone debate anyone. It's more important to him to echo his gang of link less posters that to tell the truth.
Wherever he "found" his FBI stat, he doesn't bother to cite the source because he's tired of being proved wrong all the time.
Up 45%? They reclassified what a felony is? Your reality show idea is based on your bullshit "data" so it isn't a reality show.
It's because of people like you (spreading misinformation) that people like you are afraid of your make believe crime wave. It's way people shoot people who come to their door. It's obvious those people shouldn't own a firearm.

The Republican-led House Judiciary Committee plans to hold a “field hearing” in Manhattan on April 17 to draw attention to “how Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s pro-crime, anti-victim policies have led to an increase in violent crime and a dangerous community for New York City residents.”

Experts told us it was unlikely Bragg had or could have an impact on crime trends, and crime data for Manhattan don’t match the GOP narrative.

And it’s no secret why Republicans have chosen to come to Manhattan.

On April 4, Bragg unsealed an indictment against Donald Trump accusing the former president of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records to conceal hush money payments to three people alleging extramarital affairs by Trump, and making a case that the payments were made to illegally help Trump’s presidential campaign.

Numerous Republicans, and Trump himself, have attacked Bragg’s case against Trump as politically motivated. But more than that, they argue that while Bragg expends office resources to pursue Trump, his supposedly soft-on-crime policies have led to soaring crime in Manhattan.

On April 13, Republican Rep. Andy Biggs introduced legislation calling for defunding of the Manhattan DA’s office “for failing to address lawlessness and for utilizing federal resources in the political prosecution of President Trump.”

But while overall crime in Manhattan increased in Bragg’s first year as DA in 2022 — as it did in most cities around the country — murders declined. And in the first few months of 2023, murders, robberies, rape and shooting incidents are all down from the same period last year (though felony assaults are up).

House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan said on Fox News that in the committee’s “field hearing” in Manhattan he plans to bring crime victims to talk about “the unbelievable level of crime we have seen in these jurisdictions, these urban areas around the country, where you have some left-wing prosecutor who thinks it’s more important to focus on politics than it is to keep bad guys off the streets and behind bars.”

Through an office spokesperson, Bragg has labeled the hearing a “political stunt” and claimed that New York City is “the safest big city in America.”

We should caution that there are numerous ways to slice crime statistics, including comparing 2021 with 2022, or, as Bragg’s office has done, looking at year-to-date statistics — Jan. 1 to April 9 – compared with the same period last year. The trends are a bit of a mixed bag.

And, we note, New York City is made up of five counties. Manhattan is New York County, and since Bragg serves only as the DA of Manhattan, it makes more sense, when possible, to focus on statistics just for Manhattan, as opposed to all of New York City. It’s also important to look at national crime trends, to provide context.

Citywide Statistics
Trump says that Bragg’s indictment, which he calls “Political Persecution,” comes at the expense of rising and rampant crime in Manhattan.

“Meanwhile, overall crime in New York was up 30% last year, much more than that the year before with felony assaults, robberies and burglaries all up by massive, massive numbers,” Trump said in a speech from Mar-a-Lago after his April 4 arraignment. “Not the same place that I know, not the same place that you know.”

Trump appears to have been citing citywide statistics for seven major felony offenses — murder, rape, robbery, felony assault, burglary, grand larceny and grand larceny of a motor vehicle — which increased by about 23% from 2021 to 2022, according to New York City Police Department data. Notably, however, murder (which Trump did not mention) went down citywide in 2022 by 10%.

Murders in Manhattan, specifically, dropped 15% in 2022 to 78. For historical perspective, that’s the lowest number since 2019, and it is far lower than the number of murders in the late 1980s and early 1990s. For example, there were 503 murders in Manhattan in 1990 — more than six times as many as last year.

The crime increases in New York City in 2022 were roughly in line with national crime trends in big cities nationwide. According to a report from the Council on Criminal Justice, a nonpartisan criminal justice think tank, robberies, non-residential burglaries, larcenies and motor vehicle theft all increased between 2021 and 2022 in cities that were part of its review (including New York). The report also found that homicides dipped in big cities in 2022, as they did in New York City.

Bragg also was making a claim about the entire city when he said that the Judiciary Committee would be visiting “the safest big city in America.”

In a Fox News interview, James Comer, chair of the House Oversight Committee, mocked that claim, saying, “I don’t think many people are going to come to his defense and say New York City is the safest city in America right now.”

But Patrick Sharkey, a professor of sociology and public affairs at Princeton University who created a website that tracks data on murder for large cities, said just that.

“NYC is among the safest big cities in the country,” Sharkey told us via email. “Among the 9 cities with 1 million+ for which I have data, only San Diego had a lower murder rate last year. Among the 29 cities with 500k+, only 4 cities had a lower murder rate (San Diego, Mesa, San Jose, Sacramento).”
Jeffrey Fagan, a professor at Columbia Law School who is an expert in policing, told us something similar.

“For over 20 years, NYC has been safer than any other city of comparable size,” Fagan told us. “Violent crime spiked during the pandemic in NYC as elsewhere, and now it’s coming down.”

In his Fox News interview, Comer accused Bragg of being a “soft-on-crime prosecutor” and said that “we have district attorneys and prosecutors who are focusing on things to enhance their political career, as opposed to trying to put real criminals behind the bars for shoplifting, for murder, for rape, for carjacking.”

But we found no evidence that Bragg had backed off prosecuting serious offenses. Shortly after taking office on Jan. 1, 2022, Bragg issued a memo that instructed his office not to prosecute some offenses, such as marijuana misdemeanors, prostitution and resisting arrest, and only to seek jail time for major crimes such as homicide, violent felonies with a deadly weapon, domestic violence, sex offenses, public corruption and major economic crimes “unless required by law.” He further directed that his staff should “reduce pretrial incarceration” and “reserve pretrial detention for very serious cases.”

A month later, Bragg officially revised and clarified “several policies that had been fiercely criticized as too lenient,” the New York Times reported. For example, the Times noted, Bragg clarified that commercial robberies committed with a gun should be prosecuted as felonies, that “the default” in gun possession cases should be felony charges and that any violence against a police officer should be prosecuted.

Crime experts we spoke to said it is unlikely that Bragg’s policies have had any significant effect on crime trends in Manhattan – let alone the entire city.

Cities across the country saw increases in gun violence in 2020 that persisted into 2021, Sharkey said, including cities with both Democratic and Republican mayors, and cities with and without progressive prosecutors.

“There is no evidence that cities with more progressive prosecutors have had an impact on violence,” Sharkey said.

“I reject the entire premise of this current ‘debate:’ that the policies of one district attorney in Manhattan could demonstrably impahout the city over the past year or two,” Andrew Karmen, a professor at ct the crime rates of a number of different types of offenses througJohn Jay College of Criminal Justice in New York City, told us via email.

“The district attorney of a borough can only work with the ‘solved’ cases that the police hand over to him,” Karmen said. “Most reported cases (such as motor vehicle thefts, robberies, burglaries, even rapes) go unsolved. Even the clearance rate for murders is low (somewhere between 50% and 70%, depending on how it is measured). So, the D.A. cannot really influence the larger criminal activity problem throughout the borough or the entire city in any substantial way, since most offenders are still on the loose – the police have not figured out who they are and how to catch them.”

The rise in crime in 2021 also tracked national trends, Karmen said.

“Urban crime problems across the nation worsened in May and June of 2020 after the lockdown was lifted and George Floyd was murdered,” Karmen said, so “all blame can’t be attributed to D.A. Bragg’s reformist approach since there is a nationwide uptick.” (Karmen was referring to protests and riots after Floyd, a Black man, died after a white police officer kneeled on his neck during an arrest in Minneapolis on May 25, 2020.)

Manhattan Crime
Congressional Republicans have made their case anecdotally, with some tweeting out news reports or videos showing instances of violent crime in Manhattan to bolster their argument that Bragg’s attention is wrongly focused on Trump as opposed to violent crime.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, for example, tweeted a video of a man being shot in Manhattan and commented, “Yesterday, a man was shot in cold blood in DA Alvin Bragg’s NYC. People are murdered in Manhattan every day as a result of Bragg’s pro-crime policies. But what is Alvin focused on? The political persecution of President Trump, an innocent man who hasn’t committed a crime.”

Actually, there have been 20 people murdered in Manhattan so far this year. That comes to once every five days, on average, not every day. Citywide, the murder rate in New York in 2022 was 5.42 per 100,000 residents. For comparison, the rate in Atlanta, which abuts Greene’s legislative district, is 31.75. That means the murder rate in Atlanta was nearly six times higher than in New York City in 2022.

Some have pointed to rising crime overall in 2022 in Manhattan as evidence that Bragg’s policies are worsening crime there.

Looking at the seven major felonies tracked by the New York City Police Department, the number of crimes rose by nearly 26% in Manhattan compared with the year before. Nearly two-thirds of the increase was due to a 34% increase in grand larceny. But six out of seven of the major felony categories were up in 2022. The exception, as we said, was for murder, which saw a 15% drop, from 92 in 2021 to 78 in 2022.

The increases in 2022 in Manhattan — overall and for individual crime categories — were roughly in line with the other four boroughs of New York City, Fagan said. In other words, Manhattan was not an outlier that might suggest policy differences there. And, as we said, the statistics are in line with a national trend of increased crime in large cities around the country in 2022.

And, as Bragg’s office highlighted, crime in Manhattan generally declined in the first quarter of this year.

“Just-released NYPD data show shootings and homicides are down in New York City for the first quarter of this year, with progress in Manhattan helping to drive the overall citywide decrease,” according to a statement from a Bragg spokesperson. “Virtually every major crime category is lower in Manhattan now than it was last year (as of 4/2/23): murders are down 14%, shootings are down 17%, burglaries are down 21%, and robberies are down 8%.”

According to our analysis of the latest New York Police Department statistics, so far this year, murders (-9%), rapes (-29%), robberies (-10%), burglaries (-23%) and shooting incidents (-15%) are all trending down in Manhattan. (That’s comparing Jan. 1 to April 9 of this year with the same period last year.) However, felony assault (+6%) and grand larceny (+4%) are on the rise.

“Overall, this year (to date), Manhattan’s crime numbers look pretty good,” Christopher Herrmann, an associate professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice, told us via email. “Total crime is down a little bit right now for Manhattan….down 2%, driven by big decreases in burglary and robbery (these are two of the high volume/personal crimes that drives fear of crime up/down).”

Herrmann warned that while politicians critical of Bragg may highlight anecdotal instances from crime victims in Manhattan “there are so many other cities struggling with much higher violent crime rates.”

“It will be easy to cherry-pick some victims to come and share their stories,” Herrmann said. “Unfortunately, you can’t share the same stories for anyone who was NOT a victim of crime.”

“To me, the numbers speak for themselves….NYC (all 5 boros/counties) went through difficult times during the pandemic, like many other cities throughout the country,” Herrmann said. “Crime is not a red/blue issue, there are plenty of high crime cities that ar [Jordan] is certainly not focused on actual crime/crime numbers.”
e red/blue and plenty of low crime cities that are red/blue. NYC is much safer, per capita, then some of the larger Ohio cities, so I don’t understand Jordan’s reasoning for selecting out Bragg. … He
Fagan also said that several cities in Ohio, where Jordan is from, have higher rates of violent crime than New York which is generally “middle of the pack” among large and medium size cities.

“New York is not a dangerous place,” Fagan said."

https://www.factcheck.org/2023/04/th...nhattan-crime/

Originally Posted by the_real_Barleycorn

According to the FBI, crime in NYC and Los Angeles is UP by 45% despite both cities reclassifying what a felony is.

I have some different thoughts. My idea could be made into a TV reality show. We could also have competing hunters; New York City, the Mexican border, St. Louis, et. al. The networks could pick up the cost of the license for qualified hunters. I'm really starting to warm up to the idea of a producing credit.

[tman1847]

Originally Posted by royamcr

Per capita, crime in cities is very low. Portland, Chicago and San Fran aren't even in the top ten.

Per Capita doesn't mean shit when you have 50-75 shootings every weekend and 5-10 murders ala Chicago. Unfortunately the good black people have to put with that daily, weekly, monthly, yearly

[the_real_Barleycorn]

Trying to hijack a thread?

Leave it to a liberal to try to parse a statistic. When they do that, they're hiding something.

Crime in New York City hit an all time high in 2022. So, since you can gather numbers for only part of this year, you can (as libs do) project LOWER crime rates compared to 2022 but those rates are higher compared to 2021, 2020, and 2019. Like some of those Biden claims that he reduced the defecit because he made it skyrocket one year and made it less the second year but still higher than historically.

https://www.fox5ny.com/news/nypd-nyc...rly-40-percent

[texassapper]

Originally Posted by tman1847

Per Capita doesn't mean shit when you have 50-75 shootings every weekend and 5-10 murders ala Chicago. Unfortunately the good black people have to put with that daily, weekly, monthly, yearly

Are you implying the good black people didn't vote for the very policies that are plaguing them?

They are not stupid, Sir.

[Precious_b]

Barley is stating an across the board stat from NYPD.

[VerySkeptical]

Do you think providing facts is hijacking? Figures.

Read much? Your article is 14 months old. And it only states an increase between Jan 2021 and Jan 2022. Not total crime for the year. Once again you present something you don't understand. I'm not going to make the general statement that all Republicans are in your league when it comes to intelligence. Since I'm not exposed to their "take" on reality, I can't reallly say specifically. But I have seen yours regularly.
Of course you didn't use Jan 2023 in your comparison.

Your entire claim is based on the change from Jan 2021 to Jan 2022.
Numbers from one single month to another, one year apart.
Not a year total, just one month.
So we have a classic barley attempt to show one thing and claim it is something totally different than it is. Something that is 14 months old instead of current. And when you didn't use Jan 2023, I knew you were up to your regular tricks.
You know, lying.
I can see why you think me correcting you is a hijack attempt.
Actually, I can't see why you would think that.
Remember, I don't think you vet your info very well so include a link.
Plus I'm giving you a tiny amount of credit for including a link, even though it was worthless.

Originally Posted by the_real_Barleycorn

Trying to hijack a thread?

Leave it to a liberal to try to parse a statistic. When they do that, they're hiding something. You used 2022 and projected that to the year 2023 (that's not the only thing you project). Thanks for pointing out that "projection" issue. I didn't have to parse anything.
Your link compared one month to another one a year later. No total year figures, just 2 months. As soon as I saw the fox logo, I knew to check closely.
You were the person who could have used Jan 2023 but chose not to. You decided to use old data and only a month's worth.
Which of course you didn't say it was from 14 months ago. You tried to use old data in your current claim. Let me know if you're going to try to trump your way out or if you learn something from your blunder.
Looking forward to hearing from you
Crime in New York City hit an all time high in 2022. So, since you can gather numbers for only part of this year, you can (as libs do) project LOWER crime rates compared to 2022 but those rates are higher compared to 2021, 2020, and 2019. Like some of those Biden claims that he reduced the defecit because he made it skyrocket one year and made it less the second year but still higher than historically.

https://www.fox5ny.com/news/nypd-nyc...rly-40-percent

[VerySkeptical]

Here is the relevant info from the article I know you won't read.


“Just-released NYPD data show shootings and homicides are down in New York City for the first quarter of this year, with progress in Manhattan helping to drive the overall citywide decrease,” according to a statement from a Bragg spokesperson. “Virtually every major crime category is lower in Manhattan now than it was last year (as of 4/2/23): murders are down 14%, shootings are down 17%, burglaries are down 21%, and robberies are down 8%.”

According to our analysis of the latest New York Police Department statistics, so far this year, murders (-9%), rapes (-29%), robberies (-10%), burglaries (-23%) and shooting incidents (-15%) are all trending down in Manhattan. (That’s comparing Jan. 1 to April 9 of this year with the same period last year.) However, felony assault (+6%) and grand larceny (+4%) are on the rise

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by VerySkeptical

Here is the relevant info from the article I know you won't read.


“Just-released NYPD data show shootings and homicides are down in New York City for the first quarter of this year, with progress in Manhattan helping to drive the overall citywide decrease,” according to a statement from a Bragg spokesperson. “Virtually every major crime category is lower in Manhattan now than it was last year (as of 4/2/23): murders are down 14%, shootings are down 17%, burglaries are down 21%, and robberies are down 8%.”

According to our analysis of the latest New York Police Department statistics, so far this year, murders (-9%), rapes (-29%), robberies (-10%), burglaries (-23%) and shooting incidents (-15%) are all trending down in Manhattan. (That’s comparing Jan. 1 to April 9 of this year with the same period last year.) However, felony assault (+6%) and grand larceny (+4%) are on the rise

if you say so

[Salty Again]

... "In Manhattan" ....

And what about elsewhere??
Bronx and what-not? .... On the decline?

How 'bout a report on Chicago, Houston,
and Detroit?? ... Don't bother with the likes of
Seattle or San Francisco.

#### Salty