The 2020 Presidential Election

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by Dev Null

I haven't watched the debates, because it seems like so much pageantry. It troubles me that Biden is the front-runner, because of certain things that have come out about his old-guard mentality. He was on the wrong side of history with Anita Hill and his coziness with segregationists.

Probably a nice enough guy, but he doesn't spark much joy among younger voters and people of color.

But I get the feeling that any of the contenders could hand Trump his ass with both hands tied behind their back. All Trump has now is his base, and the swing voters that gave him the electoral college in 2016 aren't just super-thrilled with his performance.

His Teflon presidency makes no sense. If the Dems have any backbone, they will impeach. His obstruction, separation of families, and unabashed adoration of brutal dictators should speak for itself.

But the way the GOP has congressional districts gerrymandered, and the Supreme Court packed to prevent any meaningful representation, who knows what will happen.

Trump has his base, i.e. Austin Ellen, which will never desert him. However, Trump, as in 2016, will not win in 2020 without support from other groups. In 2016 he won with help from independents, suburban voters, and women voters. Those voting blocs deserted the Republicans heavily in the 2018 midterms.

One of Trump's primary problems is all his campaign efforts are aimed solely at his base. Ellen eats it up!! He is doing little to convince others to vote for him. He will continue to draw his large crowds to his rallies because he is a showman who puts on a show but the attendees will be his base. Very few others. I hope he continues this strategy because it will be helpful to the Democratic nominee, whether it be Biden or someone else.

Biden has his strengths among voters. Older voters. Black voters. Blue collar voters. He would likely win back Michigan and Pennsylvania for the Democrats because he has always been popular there.

[centexguy]

The Democrats are beginning to eat their own. They are the coalition of the fringes. For them it's all about identity politics and illegal immigrants and they don't give a crap about Americans. Tulsi Gabbard is the only Democrat candidate with any decent ideas but she has no chance. Kamala Harris is the anointed one for them so it's going to be a Trumpslide in 2020.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

B
So the Democratic candidate that I like now is Andrew Yang.
He's got some good ideas.

FWIW, 2 latest polls taken after the debates have Yang with 1% and 2% of likely voters. Biden still has 14% lead over Sanders in both polls but Harris has picked up ground and is now 3rd in both.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by centexguy

The Democrats are beginning to eat their own. They are the coalition of the fringes. For them it's all about identity politics and illegal immigrants and they don't give a crap about Americans. Tulsi Gabbard is the only Democrat candidate with any decent ideas but she has no chance. Kamala Harris is the anointed one for them so it's going to be a Trumpslide in 2020.

Republicans in 2015/2016 ate their own if you remember. Name-calling. Back-stabbing. Dirty as it could possibly be. And Trump was elected.

What was your prediction, if you made one, on the 2018 midterm elections? Trump may win but I predict it will be by a smaller margin than in 2016 on the electoral side and he will lose by a larger margin on the popular vote.

[Austin Ellen]

I saw that Biden dropped 10 points. After today with his "gay waiter" remark he'll probably drop another 10 points.
He looks bad. Harris is looking great now.

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

FWIW, 2 latest polls taken after the debates have Yang with 1% and 2% of likely voters. Biden still has 14% lead over Sanders in both polls but Harris has picked up ground and is now 3rd in both.

[Dev Null]

Maybe people will look at the big picture. He was pro-LGBT before Obama was, so his influence is a selling point. But yeah, that comment about the gay waiter is reported to have fallen flat.

I agree that Harris is looking better than she was, but maybe not better than Biden just yet. We shall see.

[Whispers]

Originally Posted by Cap'n Crunch

When the truth doesn't matter, we are all screwed. So wake the fuck up, everyone.

The Border Crisis was make believe! Trump was lying!

Now there IS a Border Crisis but it is Trump's fault?

Politicians Lie. Can we trust any of them?

The Media no longer reports the news. One has to source information from a variety of places in order to get an idea of what is really going on.

I could care less how much Trump lies or takes credit for others. There are more checks and balances in place limiting what he can do than on any President before him.

In lieu of all the obstacles being put in his way he seems to accomplish some things.

What I want to know is..........

With everyone KNOWING how bad the guy supposedly is and believing it impossible that he gets re-elected, what will your excuses be when he gets another 4 years in the oval office?

Does Trump have to win?

Or does he just have to show up and reap the rewards of the Democratic party losing it all?

There is not much truth on that side is there?

[Whispers]

Millenials will most likely cost the Democratic party the election. Sooner or later they wake up to the realization they are about to become the most taxed generation of all time.

Millenials will NOT get their perfect candidate and will "brat" out as they do on so many other things throwing their support behind some 3rd party or independent candidate without a chance.



Their "win" will be in showing the Democratic party they can't regain the power without them.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

I saw that Biden dropped 10 points. After today with his "gay waiter" remark he'll probably drop another 10 points.
He looks bad. Harris is looking great now.

Actually Harris is catching a lot of flak in the last 2 days from her comments in the debate.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...cid=spartanntp

Second, Biden lost 5 points in the polling, not 10. And he still leads second place Sanders by 14 points in both polls.

Biden is #1 among the Democratic contenders. The others will attack him since that is the only way to become #1. Whether or not it works will be unknown for quite a while. Both you and I know that right now Trump fears Biden more than the other Democratic candidates. As I said, Biden is very strong in Michigan and Pennsylvania, two states Trump barely won in 2016.

With Trump's lack of support from the LGBTQ community, I doubt Biden could do anything to lose their support.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/01/u...bt-rights.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...=.39838a39385f

Also, if you or anyone else believes that Biden is losing support from African-Americans you would be very wrong. Trump's popularity among African-American voters is still dismal.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlo...=.38382faa0407

The only voting blocs that overwhelmingly support Trump are old, white men with no college degree and Evangelical Christians. That is the majority of his base. That won't be enough to get him reelected.

[Austin Ellen]

Trumps approval numbers are going up. It's gonna be a blow out. Have you seen what the Austin City Council did? It starts today.

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Actually Harris is catching a lot of flak in the last 2 days from her comments in the debate.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...cid=spartanntp

Second, Biden lost 5 points in the polling, not 10. And he still leads second place Sanders by 14 points in both polls.

Biden is #1 among the Democratic contenders. The others will attack him since that is the only way to become #1. Whether or not it works will be unknown for quite a while. Both you and I know that right now Trump fears Biden more than the other Democratic candidates. As I said, Biden is very strong in Michigan and Pennsylvania, two states Trump barely won in 2016.

With Trump's lack of support from the LGBTQ community, I doubt Biden could do anything to lose their support.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/01/u...bt-rights.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...=.39838a39385f

Also, if you or anyone else believes that Biden is losing support from African-Americans you would be very wrong. Trump's popularity among African-American voters is still dismal.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlo...=.38382faa0407

The only voting blocs that overwhelmingly support Trump are old, white men with no college degree and Evangelical Christians. That is the majority of his base. That won't be enough to get him reelected.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

Trumps approval numbers are going up. It's gonna be a blow out. Have you seen what the Austin City Council did? It starts today.

Where did you see Trump's approval ratings going up?

FiveThirtyEight which summarizes ALL polls, has Trump at 42.2% approval. He has been higher and he has been lower. No major upward movement in recent weeks. Compared to other presidents at this point in time in office, Trump is second to last, beating only Jimmy Carter. And do you remember what happened to Carter in 1980? And Trump is the ONLY POTUS to have never broken the 50% approval rate while in office.

The other website that summarizes ALL polls is RealClearPolitics and Trump's approval rating sits at 44.5% approve, 51.9% disapprove. Better than he was earlier in the year but the same as he was a year ago.

The most recent poll released today shows him at 38%, the lowest approval rating I've seen on him in quite a while. Try reading the following.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/po...omy-2019-07-01

The good news on Trump's approval ratings??? The farmers seem to love him.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/trumps...t_2984006.html

So again I ask you. What polls show an increase in Trump's approval ratings?

[Austin Ellen]

Ok I'll go find it. It's a Gallup poll.

[Austin Ellen]

I have it at 43 percent which is upwards from 40.
What do you think of our homeless camping on city streets?
The mayor doesn't see a problem with this?





https://news.gallup.com/poll/258359/...arly-june.aspx

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

I have it at 43 percent which is upwards from 40.
What do you think of our homeless camping on city streets?
The mayor doesn't see a problem with this?

https://news.gallup.com/poll/258359/...arly-june.aspx

And if you remember I posted a Gallup poll that had Trump at 46% early last month. If you look at the link below, Trump's approval rating since he took office has varied from 39% to 46% according to Gallup. Currently at 43%. -12%. Again never reaching 50%. And, as I try to always do, I warn anyone whether for or against Trump to point to one single poll to confirm their opinion on how well he is doing. It will undoubtedly change.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/203207/...al-weekly.aspx

You are misreading the intentions of Mayor Adler in Austin.

"On Thursday, the City Council approved spending $8.6 million on land and a building to house a 100-bed emergency shelter for people experiencing homelessness. The council also voted to amend ordinances governing camping, panhandling and sitting or lying down in public."

"Gov. Greg Abbott is taking aim at Austin for regulations the city council passed related to the homeless.

The Texas governor tweeted Sunday night, "If Austin or any other Texas city permits camping on city streets it will be yet another local ordinance the State of Texas will override. At some point, cities must start putting public safety and common sense first."

The governor is referencing action the Austin City Council took last Friday morning, to roll back the city's camping, panhandling and "no sit, no lie" ordinances. With the changes, Austin police will only be able to ticket people who are posing a risk to public safety or “blocking, impeding or threatening.”

"I assume that someone on his staff really didn't explain to him what it was that we did because we've been laser-focused on public safety and public health," Adler said. “But what we spent a lot of time talking about was the person that’s experiencing homelessness that is not presenting a public safety risk or a public health hazard – what do we do with them?”"

So where do you propose the homeless camp? Adler is making an attempt to home some of the homeless. In the meantime, as long as those homeless people are not a threat to the well being of the people in Austin, he, and the city council, are allowing them to set up on public property, with some exceptions.

[Austin Ellen]

I don't think Austin has a place to build a homeless camp.
I wish they could do the model of the tiny homes like they do in Utah.
Adler wants Austin to look like San Francisco apparently.
I've already seen the mattresses and sofas and people laying around already right up the street from me. Some of my liberal neighbors are not happy.

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

And if you remember I posted a Gallup poll that had Trump at 46% early last month. If you look at the link below, Trump's approval rating since he took office has varied from 39% to 46% according to Gallup. Currently at 43%. -12%. Again never reaching 50%. And, as I try to always do, I warn anyone whether for or against Trump to point to one single poll to confirm their opinion on how well he is doing. It will undoubtedly change.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/203207/...al-weekly.aspx

You are misreading the intentions of Mayor Adler in Austin.

"On Thursday, the City Council approved spending $8.6 million on land and a building to house a 100-bed emergency shelter for people experiencing homelessness. The council also voted to amend ordinances governing camping, panhandling and sitting or lying down in public."

"Gov. Greg Abbott is taking aim at Austin for regulations the city council passed related to the homeless.

The Texas governor tweeted Sunday night, "If Austin or any other Texas city permits camping on city streets it will be yet another local ordinance the State of Texas will override. At some point, cities must start putting public safety and common sense first."

The governor is referencing action the Austin City Council took last Friday morning, to roll back the city's camping, panhandling and "no sit, no lie" ordinances. With the changes, Austin police will only be able to ticket people who are posing a risk to public safety or “blocking, impeding or threatening.”

"I assume that someone on his staff really didn't explain to him what it was that we did because we've been laser-focused on public safety and public health," Adler said. “But what we spent a lot of time talking about was the person that’s experiencing homelessness that is not presenting a public safety risk or a public health hazard – what do we do with them?”"

So where do you propose the homeless camp? Adler is making an attempt to home some of the homeless. In the meantime, as long as those homeless people are not a threat to the well being of the people in Austin, he, and the city council, are allowing them to set up on public property, with some exceptions.