How many people will die in the USA from the new coronavirus by December 31, 2021??

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

i see you are still sticking with the same 0.5% death rate as was my initial estimate. my estimate of about 60,000 to 66,000 is low compared to the official record. but the record itself is being over-counted by about a third. yeah it is. plenty of articles about this but not much makes the national news. doesn't fit the agenda to keep everyone in fear of this bullshit.

Last I looked, back when the death count was around 158,000, the CDC's estimate of excess deaths year to date, compared to what you'd expect from the number of deaths in the same period in previous years, was about 155,000 to 200,000. So probably more people have died as a result of the Covid epidemic than what the official estimate would indicate. Like I said replying to your post above, this isn't rocket science. It would be hard for them to fuck that up, especially when they're providing that wide of a range.I can't prove that though, because the official USA death count only goes through March right now. Part of the reason is because, for all deaths, there's a lag between when people die and the federal government receives the death certificates.

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

regardless, an actual death rate of 0.5% is reason enough by itself to disprove the need of this total lockdown. there was no need to crash the economy over this.

Agreed, more or less. If most people just use common sense, wear masks and social distance when appropriate, wash their hands, stay home if they're sick, there's no need for a total lockdown or crashing the economy. We can slow this down enough so it doesn't overwhelm our health care system and so we can buy time until we have a vaccine. If people had been taking this more seriously earlier on, learning from what happened in Wuhan, Italy, Spain, NYC, it would be a lot easier. But I guess many need to have friends or family who get it or die before they change their behavior.

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

it happened mainly because China deliberately allowed it to spread globally. in order to cover their own economic collapse. so far no one has been able to prove this virus was genetically modified deliberately. and by now with the resources of the top military experts and independent researchers outside of China no nation has been able to prove that conclusively. and i doubt this whole wet market story. i don't think China released this virus intentionally .. well without proof anyway and that's not likely to come from China itself, as secretive as those fucktards are. someone may leak evidence of this but that is hard to do in China. i think that this lady at the Wuhan Virology lab .. the so-called patient zero who was scrubbed from existence from the lab's online records was accidentally infected and caused the spread. the wet market was a cover story.

and even with China's ability to institute a near total lockdown i don't believe for one second their "official" death count. and it wouldn't be the first time China has covered up mass deaths due to their stupid ass socialist policies. they caused mass starvation with their stupid 5 year economic plans and despite what ecky9.5k thinks proves what total shit pure socialism is.

China fucked up hugely when they covered this up. I believe they allowed it to spread to other countries not because they were trying to screw the rest of us but because of stupidity, incompetence, and, most importantly, a knee jerk reaction to cover up anything that looks bad about their government. Remember that they shut up the doctor who was trying to warn Wuhan and the rest of China to take this seriously early on. By allowing this to spread to other countries, China shot itself in the foot. Now you've got foreigners coming to China and spreading Covid. I don't think they wildly underestimated their Covid deaths though. They went Medieval, and isolated people and places in ways that you couldn't get away with in South Korea or Singapore, let alone the USA and western Europe. And it worked.

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Last I looked, back when the death count was around 158,000, the CDC's estimate of excess deaths this year, compared to what you'd expect from deaths in previous years, was about 155,000 to 200,000. Like I said replying to your post above, this isn't rocket science. It would be hard for them to fuck that up, especially when they're providing that wide of a range.I can't prove that though, because the official USA death count only goes through March right now. Part of the reason is because, for all deaths, there's a lag between when people die and the federal government receives the death certificates.

the excess deaths method is false. i can post many articles of over counting. do you want me to go there? let me know. as we all know, there is an incentive financially to count just about any death as covid related, in large part due to state and local decisions to halt almost all medical procedures. that was out of Trump's control despite many (well all 5 of the trump trolls) here claiming otherwise. he isn't the dictator the left want to say he is. maybe he should be? Biden claiming he'd issue all sorts of nationwide mandates shows what an idiot he is, as he has limited at best control over the states. you'd think he'd know that ..

Agreed, more or less. If most people just use common sense, wear masks and social distance when appropriate, wash their hands, stay home if they're sick, there's no need for a total lockdown or crashing the economy the economy. We can slow this down enough so it doesn't overwhelm our health care system and so we can buy time until we have a vaccine. If people had been taking this more seriously earlier on, learning from what happened in Wuhan, Italy, Spain, NYC, it would be a lot easier. But I guess many need to have friends who get it or die before they change their behavior.

forget Wuhan. they covered up the real death count by a mile. some reports claim 250,000 died in Wuhan alone. based on reports that the 8 or so crematoriums in Wuhan ran around the clock and that shipments of urns were in the range of 25,000 and up for each of them. you do the math. 250,000 is a low ball in my opinion even if the totalitarian state of China did implement a near total lockdown and prevented it from being much worse over all of China.

China fucked up hugely when they covered this up. I believe they allowed it to spread to other countries not because they were trying to screw the rest of us but because of stupidity, incompetence, and, most importantly, a knee jerk reaction to cover up anything that looks bad about their government. Remember that they shut up the doctor who was trying to warn Wuhan and the rest of China to take this seriously early on. By allowing this to spread to other countries, China shot itself in the foot. Now you've got foreigners coming to China and spreading Covid. I don't think they wildly underestimated their Covid deaths though. They went Medieval, and isolated people and places in ways that you couldn't get away with in South Korea or Singapore, let alone the USA and western Europe. And it worked.

well that's the commie way. deny, deny and deny. they will pay a huge price because it's already causing a global shift away from reliance on Chinese manufacturing. they are wildly underestimating the death count by your very words .. it's the commie way.

they allowed this to spread for several reasons. soft rebooting their house of cards economy by crashing the world economy. it ended their Hong Kong problem where they were on the verge of having to use military force to suppress it. they also wanted to disrupt the US election hoping Trump doesn't get re-elected because he is kicking their commie asses on trade.

they want Biden who like Obama and Bill Clinton will suck their little commie cocks (could have said tiny but i like you too much for that) but they won't get it. Trump will win re-election because Biden and the DemTards are helping him even if they don't realize it. all these riots in Democratic cities proves what idiots they are.

it's playing right into Trump's hands.

His Regal Majesty the Lord Emperor Donald, Supreme Ruler of the Multiverse!

Long may he reign!

[dilbert firestorm]

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

His Regal Majesty the Lord Emperor Donald, Supreme Ruler of the Multiverse!

Long may he reign!

4 more years!!!!

[oeb11]

Part of the Chinese Communist Party refusal to handle the wuhan virus epidemic in china - is the oriental concept of 'Face" - essentially respect - a loose translation - they did not want to loose 'Face' - and their reactions as a totalitarian regime - whee everything of importance is kicked upstairs to avoid responsibility - was predictable.

and - the CCP will do the same thing again in similar circumstances - On that One may 'Trust" the CCP.



Now -/a/, 9500, and all the DPST marxist CCP and Comrade Xi lovers may now howl in 'Outrage" - at the moon. Go have a Chinese Dinner - the Pork dishes ( dog/cat) can be prepared to Western standards. Enjoy!

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

the excess deaths method is false. i can post many articles of over counting. do you want me to go there? let me know. as we all know, there is an incentive financially to count just about any death as covid related, in large part due to state and local decisions to halt almost all medical procedures. that was out of Trump's control despite many (well all 5 of the trump trolls) here claiming otherwise. he isn't the dictator the left want to say he is. maybe he should be? Biden claiming he'd issue all sorts of nationwide mandates shows what an idiot he is, as he has limited at best control over the states. you'd think he'd know that ..

I agree 100% that Trump isn't a dictator. The excess deaths method sidesteps the uncertainties that you're pointing out. Basically you look at how many people died this year from all causes and subtract how many died during the same period in past years. The problem is that there's a delay in when the death certificates come into the federal statisticians and so the CDC and others have had to estimate the number of excess deaths. Right now I can only find total deaths in the USA through March. Anyway about April or May of next year we can get the authoritative number for 2020, compare to deaths in past years, and you or I or anyone else who wants to can come up with a pretty good estimate of excess deaths. And I'd bet the number of excess deaths will be close to or greater than reported Covid 19 deaths at 12/31/2020.

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

forget Wuhan. they covered up the real death count by a mile. some reports claim 250,000 died in Wuhan alone. based on reports that the 8 or so crematoriums in Wuhan ran around the clock and that shipments of urns were in the range of 25,000 and up for each of them. you do the math. 250,000 is a low ball in my opinion even if the totalitarian state of China did implement a near total lockdown and prevented it from being much worse over all of China.

There are 11 million people in Wuhan. They're not as fat on average as Americans, they're younger, and less likely to have diabetes, hypertension, heart problems, etc. Take 250,000 deaths, divide by 11 million people, and you get an infection fatality rate of 2.3%. This is much higher than what you or I think is reasonable. And it assumes 100% of the population got Covid, which also is very unreasonable.

Or look at it from another angle. I see press reports from around mid April where the Chinese adjusted the estimated death toll from Covid 19 in Wuhan upwards from 2579 to 3869, to account for people who died at home and weren't tested. Lets round up to 4000, to conservatively estimate people who died after mid April. Assume the infection fatality rate is 0.5%. 4000 / 0.005 = 800,000 people infected. That's 7.3% of the population, maybe not unreasonable considering that the Chinese locked up people in their own homes not long into the epidemic. They crammed most of the epidemic into a month and around 360 people per million died. In Texas, we've had about the same death rate so far, 400 deaths per million, spread out over months, and some hospitals in South Texas and the big cities became overloaded. I think the Chinese did underestimate the number of deaths in Wuhan, but not wildly so.

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

[COLOR="blue"]well that's the commie way. deny, deny and deny. they will pay a huge price because it's already causing a global shift away from reliance on Chinese manufacturing. they are wildly underestimating the death count by your very words .. it's the commie way.

they allowed this to spread for several reasons. soft rebooting their house of cards economy by crashing the world economy. it ended their Hong Kong problem where they were on the verge of having to use military force to suppress it. they also wanted to disrupt the US election hoping Trump doesn't get re-elected because he is kicking their commie asses on trade.

they want Biden who like Obama and Bill Clinton will suck their little commie cocks (could have said tiny but i like you too much for that) but they won't get it. Trump will win re-election because Biden and the DemTards are helping him even if they don't realize it. all these riots in Democratic cities proves what idiots they are.

it's playing right into Trump's hands.

His Regal Majesty the Lord Emperor Donald, Supreme Ruler of the Multiverse!

Long may he reign!

Unfortunately, because it's not true, many people are putting most of the blame on Trump for our poor performance during this epidemic. And so Trump is trying to pass the blame to China. Yeah, like I said and like you said, the way China handled this early on was horrendous, and if they'd been on top of it maybe the Covid 19 wouldn't have spread to the rest of the world. But why has our response been so poor compared to most of the rest of the world? Well, you can blame the CDC, the FDA, the Department of Health and Human Services, Trump, Cuomo, the other Governors, the State Health Departments, the Health Care system in general, and most of all many Americans who were too stupid or lazy to take common sense measures to avoid transmitting the virus. At the risk of sounding racist, a large part of the citizenry has been acting like Brazilians, the Peruvians, the Spaniards, the Italians and the Mexicans in how they're dealing with this. When this is over and done with, we'll probably be in there with them in terms of the percentage of the population who die and the negative effects of the crisis on our economies.

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Originally Posted by dilbert firestorm

4 more years!!!!

12 more years!!! It makes the pin heads explode more gloriously.

12 more years!!!

12 more years!!! Maybe more...

[rexdutchman]

Everything is a False positive ?????????????????????,

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Seems as though we may be about to experience a shortage of fear-porn from the CDC as they have downgraded their testing requirements to no longer recommending testing people that may have come in contact with infected peoples.

Don't you worry, don't you fear, San Fran Nan pledges to get to the bottom of it. Presumably after she bakes another batch of fortune cookies in downtown Chinatown to eat with her designer ice cream with Vodka sauce.

Pelosi vows investigation into CDC’s new testing guidelines

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has promised an investigation into the CDC’s new coronavirus testing guidelines. On Wednesday, she called the new guidance “scary and dangerous.”

The agency updated its guidance online earlier this week. According to the CDC, asymptomatic people don’t need to be tested, even if they’ve been in close contact with an infected person.

The House speaker believes these changes reinforce “the lack of attention and understanding needed to crush the virus.”...

Guessing that pretty much Futt Bucks the whole contact tracing BS

[oeb11]

As if nazi pelosi has anything of the education and training to expound on epidemiology and infectious disease.

She is the one who enabled the public urination and defection of San Fran - and removed the port a potties - to turn SF streets into sewers of human waste. And triggered a covered up epidemic of infectious diseases seen only in 4th world places with no sanitation.



And She claims to have expertise to judge the CDC on infectious disease.
The only expertise nazi pelosi has is - a fine judge of vodka bottles.


usual DPST - I am Right - regardless.



To those of you DPST's triggered to 'splody heads' by my use of the term "Right" - Well - too damn bad - I am not apologizing - I am enjoying your feckless outrage!
LOL

[rexdutchman]

We will never know the TRUE Numbers , just saying

[eccieuser9500]

Trump’s ‘Herd Mentality’ Gaffe Creates Anguish On The Left, ‘Ambush’ Accusations On The Right


https://mobile.twitter.com/eugenegu/...247797767?s=20


https://mobile.twitter.com/waltshaub...655434241?s=20

“You’ll develop herd—like, a herd mentality. It’s going to be—it’s going to be herd-developed,” Trump replied in response to host George Stephanopoulos, who had just asked the president to clarify his statement that the virus will “go away without the vaccine.”


Walter Shaub, former director of the U.S. Office of Government Ethics, tweeted: “I can’t bear knowing that his supporters don’t care that he is the stupidest public figure in the entire world.”


“To achieve a herd immunity of 60%, around 200 million Americans need to catch the coronavirus and 3 million Americans need to die,” Dr. Eugene Gu, a Stanford-educated physician, wrote on Twitter.

[DesWad]

Originally Posted by rexdutchman

We will never know the TRUE Numbers , just saying

100% CORRECT

Some not reporting, others false reporting, and worse are the Physicians or Hospitals classifying the death as "stroke", "heart failure," or whatever else that COVID causes.

Here lies the Problem for Trump-- he delegated everything to the states creating absolute chaos and the new normal 'state run health care system.' Dems want it Nationalized, so this state run shit show could really tell the tale come election

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by DTickler

100% CORRECT

Some not reporting, others false reporting, and worse are the Physicians or Hospitals classifying the death as "stroke", "heart failure," or whatever else that COVID causes.

Here lies the Problem for Trump-- he delegated everything to the states creating absolute chaos and the new normal 'state run health care system.' Dems want it Nationalized, so this state run shit show could really tell the tale come election

delegated? Trump can't order Governors to act. each of them is responsible for how they handled issues in their states whether that turns out good or bad.

[dilbert firestorm]

Originally Posted by DTickler

100% CORRECT

Some not reporting, others false reporting, and worse are the Physicians or Hospitals classifying the death as "stroke", "heart failure," or whatever else that COVID causes.

Here lies the Problem for Trump-- he delegated everything to the states creating absolute chaos and the new normal 'state run health care system.' Dems want it Nationalized, so this state run shit show could really tell the tale come election

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

delegated? Trump can't order Governors to act. each of them is responsible for how they handled issues in their states whether that turns out good or bad.

not sure who the governors were taking orders from, it wasn't from Trump for sure.


Trump can't delegate the job to the governors. he has to ask them and talk to them on matters pertaining to emergency support.

[DesWad]

I believe he called every governor. He certainly made it clear the directions they were to follow or risk being stripped of funding...Regardless, he could have chosen to handle it from the Federal level through the CDC. He was quick to strip the CDC from the helm in February.