How many people will die in the USA from the new coronavirus by December 31, 2021??

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by eccieuser9500

Bump THAT, man!

Sad to say (because more people are dying), you are now probably the favorite to win the Death Guess Game. Adav8s28 and I still have a shot, while Dilbert is out of the running.

[eccieuser9500]

Keep hope alive? Sordid, morbid humor?

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by eccieuser9500

Keep hope alive? Sordid, morbid humor?

Yeah, I didn't care before but now I hope I win. Nobody wants to see the death toll over 300,000, which is what it will take for you to win.

[eccieuser9500]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Yeah, I didn't care before but now I hope I win. Nobody wants to see the death toll over 300,000, which is what it will take for you to win.

Now there's this:


Coronavirus will be with us forever, Sage scientist warns


https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-53875189

"So, a bit like flu, people will need re-vaccination at regular intervals."

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, head of the WHO, has said that the Spanish flu of 1918 took two years to overcome, and that advances in technology could allow the world to halt coronavirus "in a shorter time".

The flu of 1918 killed at least 50 million people.

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Sad to say (because more people are dying), you are now probably the favorite to win the Death Guess Game. Adav8s28 and I still have a shot, while Dilbert is out of the running.

that depends. is Adav8s28 still saying millions as the death toll?

the death toll has been greatly padded anyway so no "official" count is correct

[dilbert firestorm]

I maybe out on the cv19 deaths, what about the number of infected. what it now?

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

that depends. is Adav8s28 still saying millions as the death toll?

You only got one guess, and Adav8s28's was 1,569,600. However, since eccieuser has the next highest guess at 323,001, the count will only have to get to 946,301 for adav8s28 to win.

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

the death toll has been greatly padded anyway so no "official" count is correct

"Every country in the world is under-reporting Covid deaths and excess mortality."

Dr. Ali Mokdad
Professor of Health Metrics Sciences
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation / University of Washington


"It's not rocket science. You compare deaths this year, when we have Covid, to past years to come up with excess deaths. There shouldn't be a huge controversy."

Dr. Tiny
Professor of Divinity and Vaginology
Free Markets Church of Tiny

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by dilbert firestorm

I maybe out on the cv19 deaths, what about the number of infected. what it now?

That's the $64,000 question. Officially there are 5.68 million confirmed infections right now, far below your 90 million estimate. Unofficially, my guess at this point in time, relying on my expertise developed in Divinity School, is 40 to 45 million actually have been infected up to today. Actually I took 176,000 deaths, assumed we'd have 20% more deaths from those currently infected if nobody else caught covid after today, and assumed 0.5% infection fatality rate. Or take current deaths, 176,000, and divide by 0.4% infection fatality ratio, you'll get the same number. Somebody could do some Googling about antibody tests and probably come up with a better estimate.

You're the only one with an official guess. Adav8s2s8 and I and maybe eccieuser showed our calculations here so we could go back and see what the rest of us assumed. Anyway my suspicion is that your guess wasn't a bad one. We'll never really know the answer though.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by dilbert firestorm

I maybe out on the cv19 deaths, what about the number of infected. what it now?

Dilbert, You got me curious. IHME has forecasts for estimated number of people actually infected (not just confirmed infected) on its website, but their graph just shows daily infections, not cumulative. However, you can download an Excel file showing all the data here:

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads

You'll find the relevant data in the file Reference_hospitalization_all_ locs.csv, and the names of the relevant columns are est_infections_mean, est_infections_lower, and est_infections_upper.

I pulled the file and totaled the columns and here are the results, for 8/23/2020:

Mean estimated infections: 22.3 million
Lower estimate infections: 20.2 million
Upper estimate infections: 24.6 million

For 12/01/2020:

Mean estimated infections: 40.7 million
Lower estimate infections: 33.4 million
Upper estimate infections: 51.0 million

I'm going to show estimated deaths at 12/01/2020 here too:

Mean estimate deaths: 309,916
Lower estimate deaths: 274,049
Upper estimate deaths: 368,163

They have particular assumptions they use to come up with these numbers, which are their base case. They also have another case, for universal masking, and the mean, low and high numbers for that are much lower. And an "easing" case, for which numbers are much higher.

Divide the number of deaths by the number of estimated infections, and you'll see they're using an infection fatality rate a little in excess of 0.8%, once you consider there are people that are already infected but have yet to die on 12/01/2020. I was using 0.4% or 0.5%, so coming up with a much larger number. I am however an arrogant enough prick to think that they may be overestimating the infection fatality rate, and underestimating the number of infections, so that your guess for ultimate number infected and my guess for number infected now aren't unreasonable.

[Kinkster90210]

Originally Posted by eccieuser9500

A Harvard health expert predicts an additional 100,000 US coronavirus deaths by September

https://www.businessinsider.com/harv...ptember-2020-6

EccieUser9500 pulled this quote out of the article:

-----------------------------------------------------------------
The main model used by officials to estimate the impact of the coronavirus outbreak in the United States revised its death toll this week to 193,347 COVID-19 deaths by October 1.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

That 193K by Oct. 1st seems pretty accurate now. About 18000 more deaths in 5 weeks.

[Strokey_McDingDong]

Number of daily infections are rapidly decreasing, which means daily deaths will soon follow the same decrease.

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by Tiny

That's the $64,000 question. Officially there are 5.68 million confirmed infections right now, far below your 90 million estimate. Unofficially, my guess at this point in time, relying on my expertise developed in Divinity School, is 40 to 45 million actually have been infected up to today. Actually I took 176,000 deaths, assumed we'd have 20% more deaths from those currently infected if nobody else caught covid after today, and assumed 0.5% infection fatality rate. Or take current deaths, 176,000, and divide by 0.4% infection fatality ratio, you'll get the same number. Somebody could do some Googling about antibody tests and probably come up with a better estimate.

You're the only one with an official guess. Adav8s2s8 and I and maybe eccieuser showed our calculations here so we could go back and see what the rest of us assumed. Anyway my suspicion is that your guess wasn't a bad one. We'll never really know the answer though.

i see you are still sticking with the same 0.5% death rate as was my initial estimate. my estimate of about 60,000 to 66,000 is low compared to the official record. but the record itself is being over-counted by about a third. yeah it is. plenty of articles about this but not much makes the national news. doesn't fit the agenda to keep everyone in fear of this bullshit.

regardless, an actual death rate of 0.5% is reason enough by itself to disprove the need of this total lockdown. there was no need to crash the economy over this.

it happened mainly because China deliberately allowed it to spread globally. in order to cover their own economic collapse. so far no one has been able to prove this virus was genetically modified deliberately. and by now with the resources of the top military experts and independent researchers outside of China no nation has been able to prove that conclusively. and i doubt this whole wet market story. i don't think China released this virus intentionally .. well without proof anyway and that's not likely to come from China itself, as secretive as those fucktards are. someone may leak evidence of this but that is hard to do in China. i think that this lady at the Wuhan Virology lab .. the so-called patient zero who was scrubbed from existence from the lab's online records was accidentally infected and caused the spread. the wet market was a cover story.

and even with China's ability to institute a near total lockdown i don't believe for one second their "official" death count. and it wouldn't be the first time China has covered up mass deaths due to their stupid ass socialist policies. they caused mass starvation with their stupid 5 year economic plans and despite what ecky9.5k thinks proves what total shit pure socialism is.

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

that depends. is Adav8s28 still saying millions as the death toll?

the death toll has been greatly padded anyway so no "official" count is correct

To date only 15% of the population of the USA has been infected. Assume the ratio of asymptomatics to symptomatics is 10 to 1. The count for the number infected (with symptoms) is 5.6 million. The million deaths would occur in the USA if 90% of the population becomes infected (which could happen without social distancing being practiced). The math:

Death Rate = # Deaths/# infected (#symptoms + # asymptomatics)

Death Rate = 176,000/ 50,600,000

Death Rate = .0034 or .34%

Estimate Number of Deaths, assume 90% of the population becomes infected.

.0034 = # Deaths/ Total number infected

.0034 = # Deaths/ (.90 * 330,000,000)

.0034 = # Deaths / 297,000,000 (symptoms + without symptoms)

# Deaths = .0034 * 297,000,000

# Deaths = 1,009,800

If you use a higher death rate like .5% you would have more deaths with the CV19 virus. The professor from Stanford calculation and estimate for deaths is off. He miscounted the number of people who died from CV19 on the ship, thus his death rate number was too small.

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

To date only 15% of the population of the USA has been infected. Assume the ratio of asymptomatics to symptomatics is 10 to 1. The count for the number infected (with symptoms) is 5.6 million. The million deaths would occur in the USA if 90% of the population becomes infected (which could happen without social distancing being practiced). The math:

Death Rate = # Deaths/# infected (#symptoms + # asymptomatics)

Death Rate = 176,000/ 50,600,000

Death Rate = .0034 or .34%

Estimate Number of Deaths, assume 90% of the population becomes infected.

.0034 = # Deaths/ Total number infected

.0034 = # Deaths/ (.90 * 330,000,000)

.0034 = # Deaths / 297,000,000 (symptoms + without symptoms)

# Deaths = .0034 * 297,000,000

# Deaths = 1,009,800

If you use a higher death rate like .5% you would have more deaths with the CV19 virus. The professor from Stanford calculation and estimate for deaths is off. He miscounted the number of people who died from CV19 on the ship, thus his death rate number was too small.

your numbers are full of shit. you are using the entire us population? are you an idiot or just posting like one? the vast majority of the population is not particularly susceptible to this virus.

where do you get only 15% have been infected when many experts have stated that as much as 10 times more have been infected than the official numbers?

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

where do you get only 15% have been infected when many experts have stated that as much as 10 times more have been infected than the official numbers?

The number with symptoms is 5,600,000. One more time, assume a ratio of 10 to 1 for infected people with no symptoms to infected people with sysmtoms.

Total number of infected people = 10 * 5,600,000 = 50,600,000.

50,600,000 is about 15% of the USA population of (330,000,000)

Did you learn Math in the great state of Kentucky?

Have you ever heard of estimating the number of infected by counting antibodies with serology tests? Stop playing dumb.

The numbers are solid.

The reason I am ahead in that contest by TINY is because I used the equation from the Stanford professor with a realistic death rate number. Most of the other contestants did not and that is why there estimates are off. It's all about science and math. Something Trump and his followers are not good at.