How many people will die in the USA from the new coronavirus by December 31, 2021??

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

You sound like a practically perfect first in line candidate for the "cure", free micro-chips (nano-particles) included. But I do wonder about the people that managed to survive without the cure. Do we have to reinfect them so we can cure them? Wonder how many of them there are?

Originally Posted by Tiny

There was something on CNBC about this several weeks ago. Moderna decided to try three doses, 25 mcg, 100 mcg and 250 mcg. Normally they would have started with 25 mcg and then based on immune response in volunteers upped the dose if desirable to see what works best. However, with over 1000 Americans dying every day, it's important we come up with a vaccine sooner rather than later. In coordination with the U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services (maybe pushed by the HHS?), Moderna went ahead and tried the higher doses at the beginning. The three "adverse events" occurred in the group of volunteers that received 250 mcg.

Moderna is seeing good response at 25 mcg, and is expecting the final product, if this goes to market, to be at doses closer to 25 mcg than 100 mcg.

If I were dictator I would have offered volunteers $200,000 for participating. And then not only given some the 250 mcg dose, but shot half of them full of the coronavirus to see if the stuff really works.

If Oeb is right in his last post (below), and I don't think he is, then the new coronavirus may snuff out over a million Americans. Regardless, a few adverse reactions or deaths during testing is nothing in comparison to the potential benefits of the vaccine.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

You sound like a practically perfect first in line candidate for the "cure", free micro-chips (nano-particles) included. But I do wonder about the people that managed to survive without the cure. Do we have to reinfect them so we can cure them? Wonder how many of them there are?

Sure, I’d volunteer. The 25 mcg dose is probably at least 5X safer and more effective than hydroxychloriquine

[oeb11]

The number of undiagnosed is huge in america - but that does not mean millions of deaths - that is just DPST fear mongering propaganda to keep america shut down and destroy the eocnomy beyond any repair.

Why - To elect a socialist VP with Biden who will become POTUS via inheritance.

H.... will be so furious unless she manages to finagle the DNC virtual convention. - and she might.

The most tenuous position in the history of the world is to be POTUS with H... as VP.


Back on track - the Wuhan virus is out of the box - and the level of infection in America means that all the testing and DPST plans to trace and track America to isolate anyone who has ever been within 6 foot of anyone suspected to be inifected - are just concentration camp tactics.

And Dearly beloved by the DPST's!


The Wuhan virus is out of the box - and affects mainly elderly with underlying diseases dand those with immune disorders. We need to offer voluntary isolation to protect those vulnerable - and get the country opened up. we will not see millions of deaths the DPDT's are praying for in the Trump hatred.

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Sure, I’d volunteer. The 25 mcg dose is probably at least 5X safer and more effective than hydroxychloriquine

Tiny, that is by far one of the most childish and uneducated statements I think I've ever seen you make.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by eccielover

Tiny, that is by far one of the most childish and uneducated statements I think I've ever seen you make.

WRONG. This isn't in the same league with some of my other childish, uneducated statements.

The Moderna vaccine at the 25 mcg dose level had no side effects, and created levels of coronavirus antibody levels comparable to those in people who've recovered from the disease:

https://investors.modernatx.com/news...s-mrna-vaccine

In vitro studies of hydroxychloroquine indicate it's effective against the new coronavirus in test tubes and petri dishes. Except for that, there's no experimental evidence yet that it's an effective prophylaxis (effective at preventing the disease) for coronavirus in humans.

As to safety, I don't know jack about experimental vaccines. The risk/reward ratio for the ones on the market is very favorable. You have to go back to 1976 to the swine flu to find an instance where a vaccine wasn't worth the risk.

I looked at taking chloroquinine or a related drug, mefloquine, when traveling to areas where there's malaria. They've got some worrisome side effects. I'd a lot rather risk getting the malaria. I ended up taking doxycycline one time when traveling to a third world shithole. In addition to preventing malaria, doxycycline prevents diarrhea, gonorrhea and chlamydia, so it was an easy decision.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by oeb11

The number of undiagnosed is huge in america - but that does not mean millions of deaths - that is just DPST fear mongering propaganda to keep america shut down and destroy the eocnomy beyond any repair.

Why - To elect a socialist VP with Biden who will become POTUS via inheritance.

H.... will be so furious unless she manages to finagle the DNC virtual convention. - and she might.

The most tenuous position in the history of the world is to be POTUS with H... as VP.


Back on track - the Wuhan virus is out of the box - and the level of infection in America means that all the testing and DPST plans to trace and track America to isolate anyone who has ever been within 6 foot of anyone suspected to be inifected - are just concentration camp tactics.

And Dearly beloved by the DPST's!


The Wuhan virus is out of the box - and affects mainly elderly with underlying diseases dand those with immune disorders. We need to offer voluntary isolation to protect those vulnerable - and get the country opened up. we will not see millions of deaths the DPDT's are praying for in the Trump hatred.

I believe your assumptions are wrong, so your beliefs as to how to go about dealing with this are flawed. Will post something in your Ioannidis thread. In my community, the health department on average traces down 10 people for every person infected with coronavirus. People who have the coronavirus who aren't in the hospital self quarantine at home. Presumably any contact would self quarantine until his test results are back. This is not some left wing conspiracy to uproot all that's good and right about America, it's common sense. It's doable in much of America. The number of people infected in most counties is much smaller than you think (thus it's easier to contact trace) and the death rate among those who are infected is much higher than you think.

We both have come to the same conclusion btw, that millions of people aren't going to die. Our assumptions about death rate and infection rate are very different though.

However, if we never develop an effective vaccine, then you're right. Thankfully, probably you're wrong.

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by Tiny

WRONG. This isn't in the same league with some of my other childish, uneducated statements.

The Moderna vaccine at the 25 mcg dose level had no side effects, and created levels of coronavirus antibody levels comparable to those in people who've recovered from the disease:

https://investors.modernatx.com/news...s-mrna-vaccine

In vitro studies of hydroxychloroquine indicate it's effective against the new coronavirus in test tubes and petri dishes. Except for that, there's no experimental evidence yet that it's an effective prophylaxis (effective at preventing the disease) for coronavirus in humans.

As to safety, I don't know jack about experimental vaccines. The risk/reward ratio for the ones on the market is very favorable. You have to go back to 1976 to the swine flu to find an instance where a vaccine wasn't worth the risk.

I looked at taking chloroquinine or a related drug, mefloquine, when traveling to areas where there's malaria. They've got some worrisome side effects. I'd a lot rather risk getting the malaria. I ended up taking doxycycline one time when traveling to a third world shithole. In addition to preventing malaria, doxycycline prevents diarrhea, gonorrhea and chlamydia, so it was an easy decision.

I'll take your word for having more childish and uneducated statements, but I gotta think this ranks right up there.

Really you post a link discussing where they have good results in a whole four(yes thats four) patients and then discuss the entire eight(a whole eight) patient testing.

You are delusional to believe there is any real evidence in that test so far.

I'm all for positive news and continuing with testing across a much larger spectrum of individuals.

But absolutely, jump in line for that shot tomorrow if you believe in it that much.

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by Tiny

The number of people infected in most counties is much smaller than you think

And what do you base that on?

It was a major shock to many a few weeks back when it was announced that the estimated infection rate in NY was almost 10 times what was floating around not a couple days earlier.

That announcement really showed me that no one "knows" what the infection rate is. If anywhere was under scrutiny it was NY as a major hub of deaths.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by eccielover

And what do you base that on?

It was a major shock to many a few weeks back when it was announced that the estimated infection rate in NY was almost 10 times what was floating around not a couple days earlier.

That announcement really showed me that no one "knows" what the infection rate is. If anywhere was under scrutiny it was NY as a major hub of deaths.

A month or two ago Oeb thought 20% of the population was infected, and I suspect he thinks the % is higher now. Antibody tests are pointing towards much lower numbers outside of NYC.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by eccielover

Really you post a link discussing where they have good results in a whole four(yes thats four) patients and then discuss the entire eight(a whole eight) patient testing.

You are delusional to believe there is any real evidence in that test so far.

I was comparing it to hydroxychloroquine. What's the evidence that hydroxychloroquine's an effective prophylaxis? That Trump believes it is?

Originally Posted by eccielover

But absolutely, jump in line for that shot tomorrow if you believe in it that much.

I'd happily volunteer if they were doing a clinical trial where I live.

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by Tiny

I was comparing it to hydroxychloroquine. What's the evidence that hydroxychloroquine's an effective prophylaxis? That Trump believes it is?



I'd happily volunteer if they were doing a clinical trial where I live.

I guess I should break down your original statement a little better.

You said you would volunteer and say that again here. More power to you after you already said if you were in charge you would pay people to do it. But volunteer away.

Then you said it was probably 5X safer, which is actually the piece I found most ridiculous based on next to no clinical trials of the vaccine while Hydroxychloroquine has been clinical tested for years and the side effects and safety is well known. Certain conditions certainly preclude or exclude it's use, but with all of essentially 8 subjects you somehow joyfully announce the vaccine is 5X safer. I don't get that at all.

And then you said more effective, which again has really no solid clinical backing for the statement.

[oeb11]

Correct - EL.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by eccielover

I guess I should break down your original statement a little better.

You said you would volunteer and say that again here. More power to you after you already said if you were in charge you would pay people to do it. But volunteer away.

Then you said it was probably 5X safer, which is actually the piece I found most ridiculous based on next to no clinical trials of the vaccine while Hydroxychloroquine has been clinical tested for years and the side effects and safety is well known. Certain conditions certainly preclude or exclude it's use, but with all of essentially 8 subjects you somehow joyfully announce the vaccine is 5X safer. I don't get that at all.

And then you said more effective, which again has really no solid clinical backing for the statement.

You get the $200,000 if you're also willing to be shot full of coronavirus. I would not agree to get shot up with the vaccine AND the coronavirus for free. Maybe I would if I were 19 years old.

Otherwise all I can do is repeat what I already said. Significant adverse reactions to vaccines on the market are rare. The list of potential side effects of hydroxychloroquine is a mile long. It can give you hallucinations. Twenty years ago I researched a couple of related drugs and decided they were nasty shit I didn't want to take. I believe the experimental vaccine at the 25 mcg level is probably a lot safer. It must have already been tested in animals. There were no adverse reactions at the 25 mcg level and the only reaction at the 100 mcg level was redness around the injection site.

The Moderna vaccine produced comparable levels of antibodies in all four people who took the 25 mcg dose to people who recovered from coronavirus. And higher levels in all the four others who took the 100 mcg dose. What's the evidence for hydrochloroquinine as a prophylaxis? It works in a test tube against some viruses. That's pretty much it.

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Sure, I’d volunteer. The 25 mcg dose is probably at least 5X safer and more effective than hydroxychloriquine

I think you should take one for the team. HCQ has only been around for 65 ears or so, so I'm likely to go that route. Body of evidence behind it is very strong and growing, plus it's already a generic. There are over 6,000 doctors world wide doing HCQ and it's side effects are well documented and well known. Heck fire, it's approved for kids of all ages and pregnant women. Hardly sounds risky. So you go with the rushed out batch, that was not tested on animals yet. Free country.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by eccielover

Tiny, that is by far one of the most childish and uneducated statements I think I've ever seen you make.

Well, actually you're right. A definitive study in Lancet shows that taking hydroxychloroquine increased Covid 19 patients probability of dying by 90%, and increased their chances of ventricular arrhythmias by 20X. While this doesn't mean hydroxchloroquine doesn't work as a prophylaxis for people who don't have Covid-19, it's another indication that taking it probably either doesn't do you any good or actually harms you.

So this is like conversations I've been having with my son. What's infinity plus 1? Or infinity minus infinity?

Same thing when I said the experimental vaccine was probably more than 5X safer and effective than hydroxychloroquine. What does that mean if the hydroxychlorquine doesn't work or isn't safe? If you multiply 0 or a negative number by 5, does that mean I'm saying the experimental vaccine is the same or worse than hydroxychloroquine? Yes, it was a childish and uneducated statement.