How many people will die in the USA from the new coronavirus by December 31, 2021??

[eccieuser9500]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Death Game Estimates, to 12/31/2021:

Jacuzzme: 41,806
Friendly Fred: 50,000
Dilbert Firestorm: 80,000
Dr. Anthony Fauci: 150,000 (4)
Dr. Deborah Birx: 172,000 (4)
Tiny: 260,000
eccieuser9500: 323,001
Dr. James Lawler: 480,000
adav8s28: 1,569,600

So no . . .

Originally Posted by Jacuzzme

Does going over eliminate you, like Let’s Make a Deal or whatever that is?

. . . The Price is Right rules?

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by HoeHummer

Yous are a rude motherfucker, eh?

LOLLING!

I am rude to faggots and liberals since they are ruining the country.

[oeb11]

Fascist DPST's carry no manners toward those with whom they disagree,
Prima facie evidence - the DPST posters on this Forum!

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by oeb11

Fascist DPST's carry no manners toward those with whom they disagree,
Prima facie evidence - the DPST posters on this Forum!

Yep - The only rules they follow are "Rules for Radicals".

[Tiny]

April 12, 2020 Update
Predicted Deaths from Covid-19 in the United States of America

University of Washington IHME Model: 68,841 (1)

The Waco Kid Italian Extrapolation: greater than 110,511 (2)

South Korean Extrapolation: greater than 1,420 (3)

(1) Assumes four types of social distancing occur throughout the United States. Deaths projected to August 4, 2020

(2) Covid-19 deaths to date in Italy increased by the ratio of the population of the USA (327.2 million) to Italy (60.5 million), or 5.4X

(3) Covid-19 deaths to date in South Korea increased by the ratio of the population of the USA (327.2 million) to South Korea (51.5 million), or 6.4X


Death Game Estimates, to 12/31/2021:

Jacuzzme: 41,806
Friendly Fred: 50,000
Dilbert Firestorm: 80,000
Dr. Anthony Fauci: 150,000 (4)
Dr. Deborah Birx: 172,000 (4)
Tiny: 260,000
eccieuser9500: 323,001
Dr. James Lawler: 480,000
adav8s28: 1,569,600

(4) average of high and low estimates

Dilbert is also predicting 90 million infected.

Still looking good. The IHME model is up a bit from the last two updates, which both came in around 60,000 to 62,000 deaths. Right now Dilbert and Friendly Fred are looking good, and Jacuzzme has a good chance as well.

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by Tiny

April 12, 2020 Update
Predicted Deaths from Covid-19 in the United States of America

University of Washington IHME Model: 68,841 (1)

The Waco Kid Italian Extrapolation: greater than 110,511 (2)

South Korean Extrapolation: greater than 1,420 (3)

(1) Assumes four types of social distancing occur throughout the United States. Deaths projected to August 4, 2020

(2) Covid-19 deaths to date in Italy increased by the ratio of the population of the USA (327.2 million) to Italy (60.5 million), or 5.4X

(3) Covid-19 deaths to date in South Korea increased by the ratio of the population of the USA (327.2 million) to South Korea (51.5 million), or 6.4X


Death Game Estimates, to 12/31/2021:

Jacuzzme: 41,806
Friendly Fred: 50,000
Dilbert Firestorm: 80,000
Dr. Anthony Fauci: 150,000 (4)
Dr. Deborah Birx: 172,000 (4)
Tiny: 260,000
eccieuser9500: 323,001
Dr. James Lawler: 480,000
adav8s28: 1,569,600

(4) average of high and low estimates

Dilbert is also predicting 90 million infected.

Still looking good. The IHME model is up a bit from the last two updates, which both came in around 60,000 to 62,000 deaths. Right now Dilbert and Friendly Fred are looking good, and Jacuzzme has a good chance as well.

But doesn't the IMHE model only estimate through 8/4/2020 and you wanted predictions through 12/31/2021?

That's a period that would include several additional outbreaks that are likely to occur.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by eccielover

But doesn't the IMHE model only estimate through 8/4/2020 and you wanted predictions through 12/31/2021?

That's a period that would include several additional outbreaks that are likely to occur.

That is correct, the IHME estimate is through 8/4/2020 and predictions are through 12/31/2021. The big consideration is that the IHME forecast assumes 4 types of social distancing are maintained for the duration, and that's not going to happen.

Sanjay Gupta on CNN this morning said he spoke with the guy at IHME who's running the project, who said 90 new cases per day after things settle down might be reasonable. I think he'd mean assuming we maintain some level of social distancing, maybe up to what we have now.

Their forecast doesn't show new cases, but does show hospital beds going to "0" on July 11. This is inconsistent with 90 new cases per day. Why? My guess would be they're still using Wuhan as a model for what happens later on after the peak, and new cases there may have gone to "0". Of course, the Chinese may be giving false statistics, and they've definitely got a police state, so you'd think we couldn't expect the same outcome here.

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by Tiny

That is correct, the IHME estimate is through 8/4/2020 and predictions are through 12/31/2021. The big consideration is that the IHME forecast assumes 4 types of social distancing are maintained for the duration, and that's not going to happen.

Sanjay Gupta on CNN this morning said he spoke with the guy at IHME who's running the project, who said 90 new cases per day after things settle down might be reasonable. I think he'd mean assuming we maintain some level of social distancing, maybe up to what we have now.

Their forecast doesn't show new cases, but does show hospital beds going to "0" on July 11. This is inconsistent with 90 new cases per day. Why? My guess would be they're still using Wuhan as a model for what happens later on after the peak, and new cases there may have gone to "0". Of course, the Chinese may be giving false statistics, and they've definitely got a police state, so you'd think we couldn't expect the same outcome here.

Yeah, I have no faith in the Chinese giving anything even close to reflective of actual numbers. Same with a number of other countries.

[HoeHummer]

Including the US of Eh

Trumps has already said he wants to keep the numbers down and the ratings up.

Wasn’t that his excuse for keeping the festering cruise ship from docking?

I believes it was.

[dilbert firestorm]

bump

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by dilbert firestorm

bump

It's going to need a lot of them to make 12/31/2021.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by dilbert firestorm

bump

You’re the favorite. Unfortunately eccieuser and I still have a shot at winning

[eccieuser9500]

Originally Posted by dilbert firestorm

bump

Bump.

Originally Posted by eccielover

It's going to need a lot of them to make 12/31/2021.

I'm sure Tiny will bump this a few more times.

Originally Posted by Tiny

You’re the favorite. Unfortunately eccieuser and I still have a shot at winning

Shocking to think that almost a third of a million would die in the U.S. alone. Second and third waves of infections and deaths will happen when governors ease restrictions. By New Year's Eve 2021, testing and treatment should finally be routine.

Listening to NPR or something on C-SPAN, I heard a Russian journalist explain the medical practices of physicians diagnosing cause of death. Generally, doctors claim a failure of a major organ or system as cause. Leaving lots of questions about statistics in their country. Maybe also in former Soviet strongholds. Thought it was interesting.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by eccieuser9500

Listening to NPR or something on C-SPAN, I heard a Russian journalist explain the medical practices of physicians diagnosing cause of death. Generally, doctors claim a failure of a major organ or system as cause. Leaving lots of questions about statistics in their country. Maybe also in former Soviet strongholds. Thought it was interesting.

Yeah, there's some conspiracy theory going around that coronavirus deaths are wildly overstated. It's the other way around, and not just in Russia:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ng-deaths.html

[eccieuser9500]

How To Make Sense of All The COVID-19 Projections? A New Model Combines Them


https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/13/855038708/combining-different-models-new-coronavirus-projection-shows-110-000-deaths-by-ju?sc=18&f=855038708

The projections vary substantially — with the most pessimistic forecasting a total death toll of 120,000 by June 6 and the most optimistic forecasting 103,000 deaths by that date. But the models have been inching closer to each other. Over the past several weeks, the distance between the highest and lowest estimates has halved from a gap of 36,000 deaths two weeks ago to a gap of 17,000 deaths in the most recent update released Tuesday.