How are we going to pay for all this shit?

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by Texas Contrarian

Say what?? (You're kidding, right?)

Please take a look at my post from March 21st and see if you can tell me with a straight face that Joey and Kamala have "reduced the deficit!"

https://eccie.net/showpost.php?p=106...postcount=1665

TC, I was referring to the "Federal Budget Deficit", not the Total USA debt. The Total US debt will keep increasing as long as there is a Federal budget deficit every year. The last time there was a "Federal Budget Surplus" was Bill Clinton's last year in office.

The "Federal Budget Deficit" did decrease under Joey & Kamala. Consider the chart below by Waco Kid's favorite PHD Economist Kimberly Amadeo.

https://www.thebalancemoney.com/us-d...y-year-3306306

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

TC, I was referring to the "Federal Budget Deficit", not the Total USA debt. The Total US debt will keep increasing as long as there is a Federal budget deficit every year. The last time there was a "Federal Budget Surplus" was Bill Clinton's last year in office.

The "Federal Budget Deficit" did decrease under Joey & Kamala. Consider the chart below by Waco Kid's favorite PHD Economist Kimberly Amadeo.

https://www.thebalancemoney.com/us-d...y-year-3306306

well since you mention TWK let's note that Slick Willie Blythe's surplus was the direct result of political pressure led by the Newtster Gingrich and a Republican majority.


and your link shows Biden added 1.4 TRILLION in 2021 which would be his first full budget.


FY Deficit (in billions) Debt Increase (in billions) Deficit-to-GDP Ratio


2021 $2,772 $1,484 12.1%


if anything Biden has ramped up deficit spending to Obama levels.

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

well since you mention TWK let's note that Slick Willie Blythe's surplus was the direct result of political pressure led by the Newtster Gingrich and a Republican majority.


and your link shows Biden added 1.4 TRILLION in 2021 which would be his first full budget.


FY Deficit (in billions) Debt Increase (in billions) Deficit-to-GDP Ratio


2021 $2,772 $1,484 12.1%


if anything Biden has ramped up deficit spending to Obama levels.

Waco, The Biden numbers for 2021 are a decrease from Trumps 2020 numbers. Which confirms what I posted. From the "Federal Budget Deficit" link.

2020 $3,132 $4,226 15.0%
2021 $2,772 $1,484 12.1%


Plus, it was Trump who ramped up deficit spending greater than Obama levels. Obama's last year in office (2016) the deficit 585 billion. All of Trump's deficits were > 585 billion.

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

Waco, The Biden numbers for 2021 are a decrease from Trumps 2020 numbers. Which confirms what I posted. From the "Federal Budget Deficit" link.

2020 $3,132 $4,226 15.0%
2021 $2,772 $1,484 12.1%


Plus, it was Trump who ramped up deficit spending greater than Obama levels. Obama's last year in office (2016) the deficit 585 billion. All of Trump's deficits were > 585 billion.

the deficit decreased under Biden? the debt still increased and continues to do so.


Biden has heaped trillions on the debt. and if not for those "evil Republicans" would have spent 3x more and they still over spent.


and both Trump and Biden's budget numbers in part reflect COVID.


you can't criticize one without the other there.

[royamcr]

3x as much is pulling numbers out of your ass with nothing to back it up.

Deficit spending has been lowered significantly since Trump's record level deficit spending.

Debt will always rise as long as there is a budget deficit.

Biden has plans to cut the deficit by 3 trillion over 10 years.

[royamcr]

https://www.usdebtclock.org/cbo-omb-...estimates.html

This is alarming. Just 4 years away. The right pane is where we are headed at current spending.

[The_Waco_Kid]

Originally Posted by royamcr

3x as much is pulling numbers out of your ass with nothing to back it up.

Deficit spending has been lowered significantly since Trump's record level deficit spending.

Debt will always rise as long as there is a budget deficit.

Biden has plans to cut the deficit by 3 trillion over 10 years.

Biden and the Democrats wanted trillions more and how exactly will Biden cut 3 trillion while spending trillions?



Biden's $7.3 trillion budget is campaign pitch for spending, tax goals

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bid...ch-2024-03-11/


WASHINGTON, March 11 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden sketched his policy vision for a potential second four-year term on Monday, unveiling a $7.3 trillion election-year budget aimed at convincing skeptical Americans that he can run the economy better than Donald Trump.


Biden wants to raise taxes by trillions on corporations and high earners, his budget wish-list showed, to help cut the deficit and pay for new programs assisting those who make less cope with high housing and childcare costs. Congress is unlikely to adopt the measures as proposed.


also cutting the deficit (spending) is not the same as cutting the actual current debt. to cut the debt by 3 trillion you'd have generate 3 trillion new revenue and raising corp and wealthy taxes isn't going to do that.

[Texas Contrarian]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

The "Federal Budget Deficit" did decrease under Joey & Kamala. No, it did not! - Texas Contrarian Consider the chart below by Waco Kid's favorite PHD Economist Kimberly Amadeo.

https://www.thebalancemoney.com/us-d...y-year-3306306

Did you somehow fail to notice that the chart in the link you posted ends with 2021? How convenient! Surely you've noticed that federal government spending skyrocketed during the last two years, driving the deficit into the stratosphere. In fact, the average monthly debt-accumulation run rate over the last few months is well north of $200 billion. (And you're somehow OK with that!!??)

Originally Posted by royamcr

Biden has plans to cut the deficit by 3 trillion over 10 years.

No, he does not! (At least, not in any remotely credible way.)

Note that the claimed "deficit reduction" primarily rests on the assumption that liberals will punch through large tax increases on capital gains, including taxes on unrealized gains.

As I posted previously, that's a terrible idea and would in all likelihood significantly damage the economy while failing to raise anything remotely close to the revenue imagined by the big spenders.

The fantasy of raising $3 trillion over ten years by cramming through such bad policy has engendered "feelgood rhetoric" designed to appeal to preternaturally biased media myrmidons and progressive activists with no understanding of how the real world works.

[texassapper]

Originally Posted by Texas Contrarian

Note that the claimed "deficit reduction" primarily rests on the assumption that liberals will punch through large tax increases on capital gains, including taxes on unrealized gains.

The taxes on unrealized gains is insane... I think most liberals are too math illiterate to even understand it.

Simply put if you bought you home in say 2018 for 200K and it's now worth 500K (market estimation) you have 300K in unrealized gains that you will be taxed on.... year after year after year...

If that actually happens it will be the end of home ownership in the US and the globalists will have been half right... YOU WILL OWN NOTHING, whether you are happy are not depends on how stupid you are.

[Daneskold1]

A corporate income tax rate of 40% applied exclusively to the national debt would relieve it in just over five years. A corporate income tax rate of 36% that I pay would take less than 9 for it eliminated.
As an intersectional affect it would also allow mom and pop to compete

Unless you are advocating for such policy, fiscal responsibility and policy is a position in which you have no standing.

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by Texas Contrarian

Did you somehow fail to notice that the chart in the link you posted ends with 2021? How convenient! Surely you've noticed that federal government spending skyrocketed during the last two years, driving the deficit into the stratosphere.

I found a link that has the "Federal Budget Deficit number for 2023". According to the link its 1 Trillion, 600 Billion. So, this number is smaller than the 2021 number of 2 Trillion. Both numbers are smaller than the 2020 number of 3 Trillion (which was Trumps last year in office). What I posted in the prior post was correct the One year (annual) " Federal Budget Deficit" number has decreased under Biden/Harris.

https://www.usgovernmentspending.com...eficit_history

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

I found a link that has the "Federal Budget Deficit number for 2023". According to the link its 1 Trillion, 600 Billion. So, this number is smaller than the 2021 number of 2 Trillion. Both numbers are smaller than the 2020 number of 3 Trillion (which was Trumps last year in office). What I posted in the prior post was correct the One year (annual) " Federal Budget Deficit" number has decreased under Biden/Harris.

https://www.usgovernmentspending.com...eficit_history

Hi Adav8s28,

I don't think it's fair to compare the 2020 budget deficit to periods before or after. It was huge because of COVID. To the extent that we spent more than we should have in 2020, you can blame first and foremost President Trump's administration and Nancy Pelosi's House. Senate Republicans were also responsible, although by the end of 2020 they were pushing to spend less.

Here are federal budget deficits by year,

2019 983.5 billion
2020 3.132 trillion
2021 2.775 trillion
2022 1.376 trillion
2023 1.693 trillion

Here they are adjusted for inflation, to 2023 dollars,

2019 1.17 trillion
2020 3.70 trillion
2021 3.12 trillion
2022 1.42 trillion
2023 1.69 trillion

And here are deficits as a % of GDP.

2019 4.6%
2020 14.7%
2021 11.8%
2022 5.3%
2023 6.2%

These are all from St. Louis Fed charts. I'm not sure whether fiscal years run through September 30 or December 31, so I may have mis-matched my inflation adjustments by 3 months, but that shouldn't make much difference.

Chart 4.05 in your link is frightening. Note how interest payments as a % of GDP shoot up like a bat out of hell. And the link says that when interest payments reach about 12% of GDP, then a government will likely default on its debt.

Well, right now, using 27 trillion net federal debt held by the public, and, say, 5% average interest rate on newly-issued federal debt, our interest expense would be 1.35 trillion or almost 5% of GDP. And that's just on the federal debt. This is up from 1.73% of GDP, for just the federal debt, in 2019.

If the bastards in Washington don't get their act together, they're going to eventually bankrupt the country. The only upside would be that some day we may get fed up and elect an anarcholibertarian president like Javier Milei in Argentina. That would be interesting to see! But definitely not worth the pain and suffering we'd go through in the meantime.

[Texas Contrarian]

Originally Posted by Tiny

I don't think it's fair to compare the 2020 budget deficit to periods before or after. It was huge because of COVID.

It certainly isn't appropriate or fair! Nonetheless, Biden went around continually prattling about how much his plans reduced the deficit, even though he was comparing a subsequent year to the staggeringly enormous covid-era deficits. Disingenuousness on steroids! In fact, even the Washington Post "Fact Checker" (Glenn Kessler, certainly no conservative) gave him a "Bottomless Pinocchio," a reward reserved for blowhards who repeat the same lie at least a dozen times or more, like Donald Trump always had a penchant for doing.

Note that although the deficit initially fell from an emergency level in the period immediately following the shutdowns, it's been skyrocketing during the last two years. And to no one's surprise, since the creators of the irresponsible spending blowouts of 2021-22 intended for the increased tempo of federal government outlays to be baked into the pie, so that they functioned like "the gift that keeps on giving" in a sustained manner.

Here's a concise rundown of a few key points:

https://thehill.com/opinion/4408989-...ms-one-by-one/

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by Texas Contrarian

It certainly isn't appropriate or fair! Nonetheless, Biden went around continually prattling about how much his plans reduced the deficit, even though he was comparing a subsequent year to the staggeringly enormous covid-era deficits. Disingenuousness on steroids! In fact, even the Washington Post "Fact Checker" (Glenn Kessler, certainly no conservative) gave him a "Bottomless Pinocchio," a reward reserved for blowhards who repeat the same lie at least a dozen times or more, like Donald Trump always had a penchant for doing.

Note that although the deficit initially fell from an emergency level in the period immediately following the shutdowns, it's been skyrocketing during the last two years. And to no one's surprise, since the creators of the irresponsible spending blowouts of 2021-22 intended for the increased tempo of federal government outlays to be baked into the pie, so that they functioned like "the gift that keeps on giving" in a sustained manner.

Here's a concise rundown of a few key points:

https://thehill.com/opinion/4408989-...ms-one-by-one/

Interesting link. So federal spending was $1 trillion higher in 2023 than what the Congressional Budget Office estimated when Biden took office. The deficit was seventy-six percent higher than the CBO projected. Well, with the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, the $280 billion CHIPS act and the $800 billion Inflation Reduction Act, I'm surprised it wasn't even higher.

The Republican House clawed about $1.5 trillion of that back in 2023. Biden should kiss the ground Kevin McCarthy walks on. He did more to protect Biden's legacy than any Democrat with the clawback. There are parallels with the second term of Clinton's Administration. The reason Clinton has gone down as a good president who balanced the budget is because of the moderating influence of Newt Gingrich and other Republicans.

[Texas Contrarian]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Interesting link. So federal spending was $1 trillion higher in 2023 than what the Congressional Budget Office estimated when Biden took office. The deficit was seventy-six percent higher than the CBO projected. Well, with the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, the $280 billion CHIPS act and the $800 billion Inflation Reduction Act, I'm surprised it wasn't even higher...

I'm also surprised that the headline deficit wasn't even higher, given all the ginormous spending bills passed while Democrats still controlled the house in 2021-2022.

Here's my take on why that may be the case. It's largely conjecture, since I'm much to lazy to delve into details regarding the spending timeline for the appropriated funds. But to me it seems much more likely than not that politicians, who above all else want to get reelected, sought to place and sustain the economy on a deficit-financed "sugar high" that would last as long as possible. Hence the desire to extend the timeline for spending on infrastructure, chip fab subsidies, market interventions, etc.

I think that notion squares with my previous observation that the big-government crowd wanted to bake spending increases into the pie so that they could be sustained for as long as possible. Now you see that the Biden team is pushing for a $7.3 budget outline, as I posted a few days ago.

Connected with this, notice the large divergence between the monthly debt accumulation run rate during the last year and the headline budget deficit. I recently stated that the real deficit should be considered to be the actually debt increase, including all the sleight-of-hand like "off the books" spending. After all, if money has been borrowed in the Treasury markets but not yet spent, does anyone seriously believe it's going to just sit there in government accounts and not be spent sometime in the near future?

Now, if you drill down to just a bit below the surface, you may notice something very interesting. Take a look at how the Treasury General Account (TGA) has been nicely stuffed over the last 12 months.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/D2WLTGAL

As you can see, the balance tends to hang around the $300 billion level, give or take about $100 billion, unless something unusual is happening, such as when it skyrocketed in readiness for covid-related relief/stimulus.

But now it's about $600 billion higher than that approximate long-term average.

So, what the hell is going on here? Are Janet Yellen and her Treasury deputies anticipating an emergency or crisis sometime soon?

(Oh, yes! Isn't there a critical event coming up on November 5th of this year?)

If I'm a Treasury Secretary with a nearly trillion-dollar checkbook, and have available funds of $600 billion or more in excess of what is really needed for day-to-day operations, I sure do have a shot at making a lot of stuff all around the country look juicier than it really is.

Therefore, I think you can expect the Treasury to helicopter-drop cash into as many nooks and crannies of the economy as possible in order to keep the headline unemployment rate near historical lows, and the macroeconomy having a "feel" that's as nice as possible.