The 2020 Presidential Election

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by pleasurem

Biden will not win Texas, that’s all BS... he’s a horrible candidate!!! He’s not gonna be president!!!

Not worse than Trump in the opinion of most voters in this country. No, I doubt a Democrat, Biden or other, will win Texas in 2020, However, Trump won by 9% in 2016 and I predict his margin of victory in 2020 will be less than 5%.

So how do you see the electoral vote coming out in 2020, assuming for the moment that Biden is against Trump?

[pleasurem]

I don’t think he’s a viable candidate... Trump is probably getting hosed by the media, not that he doesn’t deserve @ Least some of it! The Dems need to put forward a sensible candidate, they are really close to losing it completely.

[Cap'n Crunch]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

So how do you see the electoral vote coming out in 2020, assuming for the moment that Biden is against Trump?

Here's my first go at at it:

Arizona— Biden +1
Colorado— Biden +4
Florida— EVEN (Supreme Court gives to Trump )
Georgia— Trump +2
Iowa— Trump +2
Michigan— Biden +5
Minnesota— Biden +4
Nevada— Biden +3
New Hampshire— Biden +3
North Carolina— Biden +1
Ohio— Trump +1
Pennsylvania— Biden +6
Texas— Trump +2
Virginia— Biden +4
Wisconsin— Biden +3


All other states are forgone conclusions.
I'll adjust later if Biden actually wins the nomination.

Now, will any Trump supporters rack their brains?

[pleasurem]

There is no way Biden wins!!! Too many negative things that are actually true!

There is nothing to like about him. How much was Mrs. Clinton favored by?

[bjarnibear]

Recent poll shows Biden beating Trump in Texas

[pleasurem]

There is no way!!! He will not win in Texas... he’s a horrible candidate!!! The only Dem that could win is Bill, but, he can’t run again!!!

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by pleasurem

There is no way Biden wins!!! Too many negative things that are actually true!

There is nothing to like about him. How much was Mrs. Clinton favored by?

Polls had Clinton winning the popular vote by 2%, which is what happened. Why did polls at the state level miss their mark?

"One likely culprit is what pollsters refer to as nonresponse bias. This occurs when certain kinds of people systematically do not respond to surveys despite equal opportunity outreach to all parts of the electorate. We know that some groups – including the less educated voters who were a key demographic for Trump on Election Day – are consistently hard for pollsters to reach. It is possible that the frustration and anti-institutional feelings that drove the Trump campaign may also have aligned with an unwillingness to respond to polls. The result would be a strongly pro-Trump segment of the population that simply did not show up in the polls in proportion to their actual share of the population.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...ed-their-mark/

Trump won Michigan by 3 tenths of 1%. Won Pennsylvania by 1.2%. Won Wisconsin by 1%. Trump loses those 3 states he loses the electoral vote. His latest approval ratings in those 3 states today? Michigan 42% (-20% since he took office). Pennsylvania 45% (-17%). Wisconsin 42% (-19%).

The biggest negative going for the Democrats in 2016 was Hillary Clinton. Joe Biden is much more popular at the present time than Clinton was in 2016, especially in the states of Michigan and Pennsylvania. You might not like him but AT THIS POINT IN TIME, the voters polled like him. But it's early and Trump may pull something out of his bag of tricks -- solving the immigration crisis would be one. We know it won't be on health care reform.

What you might be forgetting is the number of people who voted against Trump in 2016 because he was Trump, just like so many voted against Clinton because she was Clinton. Biden, or any other Democratic nominee, would not carry that baggage like Clinton did, but Trump will still carry that dislike factor over into 2020.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by Cap'n Crunch

Here's my first go at at it:

Arizona— Biden +1
Colorado— Biden +4
Florida— EVEN (Supreme Court gives to Trump )
Georgia— Trump +2
Iowa— Trump +2
Michigan— Biden +5
Minnesota— Biden +4
Nevada— Biden +3
New Hampshire— Biden +3
North Carolina— Biden +1
Ohio— Trump +1
Pennsylvania— Biden +6
Texas— Trump +2
Virginia— Biden +4
Wisconsin— Biden +3


All other states are forgone conclusions.
I'll adjust later if Biden actually wins the nomination.

Now, will any Trump supporters rack their brains?

Thanks for the response. Nice analysis. I'm sure Trump supporters would disagree. I remember Ellen had Trump winning all the states he won in 2016 and also winning Minnesota and maybe Virginia in 2020.

[Austin Ellen]

Nice job Capt. No, Biden is in trouble and it's going to get worse for him. And some of that trouble will be coming from inside his own party. I'm sure you all saw it on T.V.

[nuglet]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Thanks for the response. Nice analysis. I'm sure Trump supporters would disagree. I remember Ellen had Trump winning all the states he won in 2016 and also winning Minnesota and maybe Virginia in 2020.

Trump will be lucky to finish one term.. I expect, any day, to see headlines about the sexual affair he's having with his daughter. He is a blight on our country..

[Austin Ellen]

I'll bet you $$ that it doesn't happen. C'mon put your money where your mouth is Nuglet

Originally Posted by nuglet

Trump will be lucky to finish one term.. I expect, any day, to see headlines about the sexual affair he's having with his daughter. He is a blight on our country..

[LuvYogaPants]

Uhm, I saw Michelle Obama in 2012, and while not quite a war zone( it is paid to the troops as a combat zone), Qatar is certainly close enough. Also, just because you speak a few wors of a language does not make you fluent, her college professor, where she dropped out of confirmed she did not speak 5 languages, but go ahead and tell yourself whatever makes you feel good.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by Austin Ellen

Nice job Capt. No, Biden is in trouble and it's going to get worse for him. And some of that trouble will be coming from inside his own party. I'm sure you all saw it on T.V.

Trump right now needs to pull something out of his hat. If the tariffs imposed on China, and proposed tariffs on Mexico, are still around a year from now, Trump is in trouble come November 2020. If he can negotiate a deal with China that is viewed as positive for the U.S., that will be a major plus for him. The tariffs with China are hurting everyone in this country financially. Tariffs on Mexico will hurt us worse.

If Trump can do something to improve the immigration situation that also will be a plus for him. The current talks underway between the U.S. and Mexico are important for him.

Right now Trump's approval ratings remain the lowest of any POTUS other than Jimmy Carter since approval ratings began. His approval ratings in key states are not good. But a lot could change based on any successes he might have in the next year or so.

[Austin Ellen]

Um, Qatar might be close but no cigar. Can't sugar coat this one. You're either in a war zone - or you are not.
But keep telling yourself whatever your little heart desires to make you a happy camper.

Originally Posted by LuvYogaPants

Uhm, I saw Michelle Obama in 2012, and while not quite a war zone( it is paid to the troops as a combat zone), Qatar is certainly close enough. Also, just because you speak a few wors of a language does not make you fluent, her college professor, where she dropped out of confirmed she did not speak 5 languages, but go ahead and tell yourself whatever makes you feel good.

[Austin Ellen]

Yes, I agree - anything can happen! And it did. Biden reversed himself on the Hyde amendment. What do you think of that?

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Trump right now needs to pull something out of his hat. If the tariffs imposed on China, and proposed tariffs on Mexico, are still around a year from now, Trump is in trouble come November 2020. If he can negotiate a deal with China that is viewed as positive for the U.S., that will be a major plus for him. The tariffs with China are hurting everyone in this country financially. Tariffs on Mexico will hurt us worse.

If Trump can do something to improve the immigration situation that also will be a plus for him. The current talks underway between the U.S. and Mexico are important for him.

Right now Trump's approval ratings remain the lowest of any POTUS other than Jimmy Carter since approval ratings began. His approval ratings in key states are not good. But a lot could change based on any successes he might have in the next year or so.