How many people will die in the USA from the new coronavirus by December 31, 2021??

[gnadfly]

Originally Posted by gnadfly

My prediction is by EOY 2021 we'll have 70,000 ventilators sitting around in the box, never opened.

From foxnews:

General Motors has signed a $489.4 million contract with the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services to build 30,000 ventilators for the national stockpile under the terms of the Defense Production Act invoked by President Trump.

[oeb11]

How much per ventilator is that - GM will make one helluva profit - maybe why they quit making sedans.


Must be the DPST mantra - "Diversify!!!"

[Jacuzzme]

The projection was just lowered to 60k or so. I’ll be winning this poll.

[Tiny]

April 8, 2020 Update
Predicted Deaths from Covid-19 in the United States of America

University of Washington IHME Model: 60,415 (1)

The Waco Kid Italian Extrapolation: greater than 95,413 (2)

South Korean Extrapolation: greater than 1,280 (3)

(1) Assumes four types of social distancing occur throughout the United States. Deaths projected to August 4, 2020

(2) Covid-19 deaths to date in Italy increased by the ratio of the population of the USA (327.2 million) to Italy (60.5 million), or 5.4X

(3) Covid-19 deaths to date in South Korea increased by the ratio of the population of the USA (327.2 million) to South Korea (51.5 million), or 6.4X


Death Game Estimates, to 12/31/2021:

Jacuzzme: 41,806
Friendly Fred: 50,000
Dilbert Firestorm: 80,000
Dr. Anthony Fauci: 150,000 (4)
Dr. Deborah Birx: 172,000 (4)
Tiny: 260,000
eccieuser9500: 323,001
Dr. James Lawler: 480,000
adav8s28: 1,569,600

(4) average of high and low estimates

Dilbert is also predicting 90 million infected.

Looking better! The current IHME estimate of total deaths is down from previous estimates of 81,766 (April 5), 93,765 (March 31), 83,967 (approximately March 28), and 81,114 (March 24). New York deaths are expected to peak tomorrow. Hospital bed shortages (all beds or only ICU beds) are now anticipated only for New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Michigan, Georgia, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, North Dakota, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin.

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by Jacuzzme

The projection was just lowered to 60k or so. I’ll be winning this poll.

I'm sticking with my 50,000 projection...

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

I'm sticking with my 50,000 projection...

It's too late to change. And I don't know why you'd want to. Right now it looks you, Dilbert, Jacuzzme are still in the running. If there's not a second wave.

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by Tiny

It's too late to change. And I don't know why you'd want to. Right now it looks you, Dilbert, Jacuzzme are still in the running. If there's not a second wave.

I would criticize anyone who changed their estimate!

LOL

Yes, the second wave isn't a part of the estimate.

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

I would criticize anyone who changed their estimate!

LOL

Yes, the second wave isn't a part of the estimate.

Based on the OP, the second wave, third wave, fourth wave, and maybe more should be part of the estimate.

The end date for the estimate was December 31, 2021.

It's why I won't participate in it. Too many variables in the mix between now and that end date.

[Jacuzzme]

Does going over eliminate you, like Let’s Make a Deal or whatever that is?

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by Jacuzzme

Does going over eliminate you, like Let’s Make a Deal or whatever that is?

That wasn't specified and It's the Price is Right

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by Jacuzzme

Does going over eliminate you, like Let’s Make a Deal or whatever that is?

Nope, if it comes in at 20,000 or 45,000 you’re the winner.

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by Tiny

Nope, if it comes in at 20,000 or 45,000 you’re the winner.

45,903 to 65,000 and I'm the champion!

[gnadfly]

First Prize: a ventilator or session with HorseHummer.

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by gnadfly

First Prize: a ventilator or session with HorseHummer.

Do you get to pound his faggot face into the ground?

[HoeHummer]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

Do you get to pound his faggot face into the ground?

Yous are a rude motherfucker, eh?

LOLLING!