How many people will die in the USA from the new coronavirus by December 31, 2021??

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by oeb11

am elite and more knowledgeable than anyone else about everything..

Are you still upset because I schooled you in Physics 6 months ago?

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

Are you still upset because I schooled you in Physics 6 months ago?

I wish IB Hankering would get his ass back here. I rather enjoyed the two of you schooling each other and the rest of us on Iran.

[gnadfly]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

What do you call this Mr "Everyone has a test kit, it's called a thermometer". A post in a thread you started, you set the line with young kids. How did you write it, "If a lot of young kids were dying, I would change my thinking". The implication is if your not a young kid your expendable! Who's is the one not being truthful?

https://www.eccie.net/newreply.php?d...y&p=1061999866

You. I didn't saying to "sacrifice them." If there are things we can do for them, do it. But there are old people dying in these nursing homes everyday for many reasons.

Go fuck yourself.

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by oeb11

You screwed up

Nice end around O. This was about the OP of that thread who would consider doing social distancing only if young kids were dying. The implication was made clearly. IF you are over 65 and your immunity system is weakened and can't clear the virus, then too bad for you. Just let the Corona Virus go thru the population.

This pathogen is killing people in other age groups, not just people over 65. It's killing our nurses and our doctors. Are you okay with that?

Take your deep state bullsh%t and shove it.

[adav8s28]

Originally Posted by gnadfly

You. I didn't saying to "sacrifice them."

If you let the corona virus just go thru the population, who would have the lowest risk of fighting off the virus. People over 65, who generally speaking have a weaker immunity system.

Don't get upset with me because you are losing a debate. Since you don't hobby, just follow your own advice.

[eccielover]

Go talk to Dr. Jan of ABC. She is the one who said go get a test for CORVID-19 if your temp. reaches 100.4. (She added at the very end of her answer "with symtoms"). It's all on video.

Yes, it is all on video, and she said possibly speak with someone about getting tested if you have a fever of 100.4 with "other symptoms". There was no huge pause in adding in the "other symptoms". It's you trying to justify your mis-representation of her statements in the first place.

You have still not stated why you choose to say a fever of 100.4 would indicate Wuhan Virus over the flu. Again, I find it funny you cite a thread where you fucked up repeatedly and won't admit your own fuck ups.

Originally Posted by adav8s28

If you let the corona virus just go thru the population, who would have the lowest risk of fighting off the virus. People over 65, who generally speaking have a weaker immunity system.

And most are in agreement that it's not a matter of "letting" it go thru the population. It's going to go through the population, it's just at what rate will it?

[Tiny]

April 5, 2020
Predicted Deaths from Covid-19 in the United States of America

University of Washington IHME Model: 81,766 (1)

The Waco Kid Italian Extrapolation: greater than 85,790 (2)

South Korean Extrapolation: greater than 1,190 (3)

(1) Assumes four types of social distancing occur throughout the United States. Deaths projected to August 4, 2020

(2) Covid-19 deaths to date in Italy increased by the ratio of the population of the USA (327.2 million) to Italy (60.5 million), or 5.4X

(3) Covid-19 deaths to date in South Korea increased by the ratio of the population of the USA (327.2 million) to South Korea (51.5 million), or 6.4X


Death Game Estimates, to 12/31/2021:

Jacuzzme: 41,806
Friendly Fred: 50,000
Dilbert Firestorm: 80,000
Dr. Anthony Fauci: 150,000 (4)
Dr. Deborah Birx: 172,000 (4)
Tiny: 260,000
eccieuser9500: 323,001
Dr. James Lawler: 480,000
adav8s28: 1,569,600

(4) average of high and low estimates

This is good. The IHME estimate of total deaths is down from 93,765 at the last update.

[eccielover]

Originally Posted by Tiny

This is good. The IHME estimate of total deaths is down from 93,765 at the last update.

Good news for the nation and those that love the U.S.of A.

Bad news for the DemPanickers.

[oeb11]

Movie "Deadpool"- Anyone seen the beginning with the "Dead Pool" "office pool" on the blackboard???


Interesting - the non-physicians " conservatives - generally - numbers in concert with annual Influenza A
fascist DPST- liberal idiot - pining for millions of deaths.



"a" - go whine to Trump that there are not enough diagnostic thermometers for One to stuff up backsides.

U R a liberal , elitist, self-entitled idiot with no expertise in the matter - like the usual liberal response - deny, obfuscate, Lie - and then go to name-calling and scatology.

U"a" has no credentials. just a Fascist DPST ego that refuses to accept 'FACTS" over liberal DPST narrative.

Give it a rest -"a".

[dilbert firestorm]

btw, i want to add this to my 80,000 guess. 90 million infected.

[oeb11]

Likely will be very difficult to pin down an exact number in the US of those infected.

We are not testing most with no symptoms.

What that cohort is - a guesstimate at best .

[gnadfly]

Originally Posted by adav8s28

If you let the corona virus just go thru the population, who would have the lowest risk of fighting off the virus. People over 65, who generally speaking have a weaker immunity system.

Don't get upset with me because you are losing a debate. Since you don't hobby, just follow your own advice.

Hardly. You said I said to "sacrifice them." You lied. I never said that.

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by gnadfly

Hardly. You said I said to "sacrifice them." You lied. I never said that.

You are being proven correct more and more every day.

Good job!

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

You are being proven correct more and more every day.

Good job!

We'll never know. You don't know how much of an effect the measures taken will have on the number of people who will die and on how overloaded hospitals will become.

That said the economic costs do look high. I think we're going to be out at least $2 trillion on this, in terms of damage to GDP. If we end up taking a $2 trillion hit to save 1.5 million lives, that's $1.3 million per life. That's definitely worth it IMHO. You could argue it's not because of the ages and health conditions of the people who will die. But I'd argue just based on the stress to the health care system it's not tenable. To get to a 1.5 million death estimate for the USA, you'd have to assume no change in human behavior. People don't go to basketball games, they're elbow to elbow in crowded restaurants, etc. That wouldn't have happened. When hospitals started overflowing in NYC people would become a lot more cautious.

Oeb linked a couple of times to an article by a professor of epidemiology, public health and biomedical data science:

http://www.healthdata.org/news-relea...-starting-peak

If you take his best guess for fatality rate, a 0.15% infection rate (which he said could be anywhere from 0.025% to 0.625%) and assume 50% of the population is infected, then you end up with 245,000 people dead. Assume $2 trillion, that's $8 million per person who dies. That's probably not worth it. HOWEVER, the public probably wouldn't be willing to accept the stress on the hospital system in many areas that would have developed. Furthermore, I'd question whether the fatality rate would have been as low as 0.15% once hospitals become overloaded.

I stand by what I said, we should have thrown money at testing, tracing, isolation and vaccines from the start. And shut off travel to hot spots, including any that develop in the USA. That would have cost in the tens of billions up to a few hundred billion dollars. We wouldn't have had to interrupt the economy the way we are now, and regardless of whether you believe the new coronavirus is a mortal threat to humanity or nothing worse than a bad flu season, we'd come out ahead.

[oeb11]

Tiny - intersting post .

The worth of the life of an individual in our society than generally values indiviudals is something medical folks cannot and do not look at in financial terms.

Philosophically - it is the patient first.



Yet to choose between the economic damage to all society v a certain number of Lives is an ethics argument I am not equipped for.

Yet - we do the same every year regarding Influenza A - a virus we see yearly and is looking like reasonably comparable infectivity, penetrance in the population, and case mortality rate. Which does vary year to year.



What is the difference ? We have meds and vacccines for influenza A. None so far proven efficacious for Wuhan virus. Would we ever have any meds for Wuhan if the DPST'scontrolled that matter with Trump as POTUS - we all know the answer - but I digress.

I think it is panic - sown throughout the US and world via the LSM - as a reporting event to focus on - not a medical event on the scale of shutting down the world economy.

It is panic driven - and the sooner we have a reasonably effective treatment and vaccine - the sooner the panic will disappear.

the panic broadcast by the LSM affects the politicians - both in fear- and in opportunity to advance causes. They (DPST's) do not want this "fixed" - and are spending $Trillions to destabilize the economy with hyperinflation to use against Trump. And aid in establishing a One Party Order in which all are subservient to the Party.

If the DPST's capture the House, Senate,and POTUS in Nov 2020 - we have seen the end of representative Democracy in America.


Thanks for the reference for Dr. Ioaniddis. :
A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data


By John P.A. Ioannidis
March 17, 2020
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/...reliable-data/


his predictions are proving remarkably prescient. IMHO.

Since ftw is gone - I guess we are left with DPST fanatic j666 to scream "Lies" at everything anyone other than j666 writes.