CNN data guru details 'signs' pointing to Trump victory: If he wins it 'will have been obvious'

[The_Waco_Kid]

the FEAR factor on the left is obvious .. they read CNN


bahahahahaaa


CNN data guru details 'signs' pointing to Trump victory: If he wins it 'will have been obvious'

https://www.yahoo.com/news/cnn-data-...204654795.html
Wed, October 30, 2024 at 3:46 PM CDT


CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten broke down the signs pointing to a potential victory for former President Trump next week.


Enten mentioned that the fraction of people satisfied with the country’s current direction, President Biden’s current approval numbers, and strong voter registration numbers among Republicans in swing states are all things that signal Trump’s re-election next week.


"If Republicans win come next week – Donald Trump wins come next week, the signs all along will have been obvious," Enten told CNN anchor John Berman on Wednesday morning.


Enten began by talking about how Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances of winning are lower as she’s the incumbent at a time when only 28 percent of Americans think the country is on the right track.


He said that in the modern political era – since 1980 – the average rate of Americans who believe the country is on the right track when the incumbent loses is 25 percent. The average rate when the incumbent wins is 42 percent.


Mentioning the 28 percent number, he said, "It doesn‘t look anything – anything – like this 42%... So, the bottom line is, very few Americans think the country is on the right track at this particular point. It tracks much more with when the incumbent party loses than when it wins."


Enten then broke down the second sign - that historically, a party whose president has a low net approval rating is not succeeded by a candidate of that same party.
"So, I went back and I looked. Okay, was this successor of the same party when the president’s net approval rating was negative at this point, which Joe Biden‘s most definitely is? He‘s 15 points underwater."


Enten pointed to how George W. Bush, who had a negative net approval rating in 2008, was succeeded by Democratic President Barack Obama. The same framing fit the end of former President Lyndon B. Johnson’s term, which was followed by Republican Richard Nixon's term. The same was the case at the end of Harry Truman’s presidency in 1952.


"Harry S. Truman – his approval rating was in the 20s, if not the upper teens. Did a Democrat succeed Harry S. Truman in ’52? My memory – no," he said, adding that Republican Dwight Eisenhower succeeded Truman.


He summed up the second sign pointing to Trump's victory, stating, "So the bottom line is for Kamala Harris to win, she’d have to break history, be a Democrat to succeed Joe Biden when Biden’s approval rating is way underwater at this point."


Enten’s third sign was the fact that Republican voter registration has been gaining on Democratic voter registration in swing states. "So Republicans are putting more Republicans in the electorate, the Democratic number versus the Republican number has shrunk," the reporter declared.


He then concluded with a summary of the entire set of findings, stating, "We would look at the right direction being very low, Joe Biden’s approval rating being very low and Republicans really registering numbers. You can’t say you weren’t warned."


Enten’s assessment comes a day after he warned that polls could be underestimating Harris’ performance. He argued Tuesday that polls ahead of the 2022 midterm elections underestimated Democratic Party support by around four points, and said that could be happening to Harris’ numbers currently, which show she’s essentially tied with Trump.


Original article source: CNN data guru details 'signs' pointing to Trump victory: If he wins it 'will have been obvious'

[Salty Again]

The Dem's 2022 "party support" was NOT underestimated.
The "red wave" was smaller than expected due to "boxes and boxes
of votes" still being counted for days on end, like in 2020.

The CNN "Guru" surely neglected to mention that.
Which is fine - as he DID mention the signs pointing to
a Trump Victory ARE rather obvious. ...

#### Salty

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

the FEAR factor on the left is obvious .. they read CNN


bahahahahaaa


CNN data guru details 'signs' pointing to Trump victory: If he wins it 'will have been obvious'

https://www.yahoo.com/news/cnn-data-...204654795.html
Wed, October 30, 2024 at 3:46 PM CDT


CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten broke down the signs pointing to a potential victory for former President Trump next week.


Enten mentioned that the fraction of people satisfied with the country’s current direction, President Biden’s current approval numbers, and strong voter registration numbers among Republicans in swing states are all things that signal Trump’s re-election next week.


"If Republicans win come next week – Donald Trump wins come next week, the signs all along will have been obvious," Enten told CNN anchor John Berman on Wednesday morning.


Enten began by talking about how Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances of winning are lower as she’s the incumbent at a time when only 28 percent of Americans think the country is on the right track.


He said that in the modern political era – since 1980 – the average rate of Americans who believe the country is on the right track when the incumbent loses is 25 percent. The average rate when the incumbent wins is 42 percent.


Mentioning the 28 percent number, he said, "It doesn‘t look anything – anything – like this 42%... So, the bottom line is, very few Americans think the country is on the right track at this particular point. It tracks much more with when the incumbent party loses than when it wins."


Enten then broke down the second sign - that historically, a party whose president has a low net approval rating is not succeeded by a candidate of that same party.
"So, I went back and I looked. Okay, was this successor of the same party when the president’s net approval rating was negative at this point, which Joe Biden‘s most definitely is? He‘s 15 points underwater."


Enten pointed to how George W. Bush, who had a negative net approval rating in 2008, was succeeded by Democratic President Barack Obama. The same framing fit the end of former President Lyndon B. Johnson’s term, which was followed by Republican Richard Nixon's term. The same was the case at the end of Harry Truman’s presidency in 1952.


"Harry S. Truman – his approval rating was in the 20s, if not the upper teens. Did a Democrat succeed Harry S. Truman in ’52? My memory – no," he said, adding that Republican Dwight Eisenhower succeeded Truman.


He summed up the second sign pointing to Trump's victory, stating, "So the bottom line is for Kamala Harris to win, she’d have to break history, be a Democrat to succeed Joe Biden when Biden’s approval rating is way underwater at this point."


Enten’s third sign was the fact that Republican voter registration has been gaining on Democratic voter registration in swing states. "So Republicans are putting more Republicans in the electorate, the Democratic number versus the Republican number has shrunk," the reporter declared.


He then concluded with a summary of the entire set of findings, stating, "We would look at the right direction being very low, Joe Biden’s approval rating being very low and Republicans really registering numbers. You can’t say you weren’t warned."


Enten’s assessment comes a day after he warned that polls could be underestimating Harris’ performance. He argued Tuesday that polls ahead of the 2022 midterm elections underestimated Democratic Party support by around four points, and said that could be happening to Harris’ numbers currently, which show she’s essentially tied with Trump.


Original article source: CNN data guru details 'signs' pointing to Trump victory: If he wins it 'will have been obvious'

I saw him on CNN this morning. One other thing he emphasized is that Trump now has a slight lead in the polling in Pennsylvania.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by Tiny

I saw him on CNN this morning. One other thing he emphasized is that Trump now has a slight lead in the polling in Pennsylvania.

Anyone who says they KNOW who will win on Tuesday is mentally disabled. Even Enten, in his last paragraph, says polls may be underestimating Harris, which is what I said earlier.

I read one article which makes points as to the voting thus far favoring Trump then the next article makes points as the voting thus far favoring Harris.

I will be watching CNN next Tuesday because I enjoy how John King analyzes the voting trends.

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

CNN data guru details 'signs' pointing to Trump victory: If he wins it 'will have been obvious'

Kamala has already answered that question with - “And Donald Trump has been running for office.”

Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

BB = Bret Bair
KH = Kamala Harris

BB: “More than 70% of people tell the country is on the wrong track. They say the country is on the wrong track. If it’s on the wrong track, that track follows 3.5 years of you being Vice President and President Biden being President. That is what they are saying! 79% of them. Why are they saying that if you’re turning the page, you’ve been in office for 3.5 years,” Bret Baier said.

KH: “And Donald Trump has been running for office.”

BB: “But you’ve been the person holding the office.”

KH: “Come on, you and I both know what I’m talking about. You and I both know what I’m talking about!” Harris said.

BB: “Actually, I don’t. What are you talking about…you’re the one in power.”

You can watch it if ya got the stomach for it...
https://twitter.com/i/status/1846678998417285264

[Yssup Rider]

Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

Kamala has already answered that question with - “And Donald Trump has been running for office.”

Not slightly related to this topic.

[Lucas McCain]

I wonder if any of that data takes into account that the majority of women are against Trump and that women vote more than men... regardless, we'll find out who wins soon enough so it's not even worth a discussion this close to the conclusion of this very odd race.

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

Anyone who says they KNOW who will win on Tuesday is mentally disabled. Even Enten, in his last paragraph, says polls may be underestimating Harris, which is what I said earlier.

I read one article which makes points as to the voting thus far favoring Trump then the next article makes points as the voting thus far favoring Harris.

I will be watching CNN next Tuesday because I enjoy how John King analyzes the voting trends.

Enten closes his segments with a statement to viewers, something like “If you know who’s going to win this please call me, because I sure as hell don’t.”

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Originally Posted by Yssup Rider

Not slightly related to this topic.

From the OP:

...Enten began by talking about how Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances of winning are lower as she’s the incumbent at a time when only 28 percent of Americans think the country is on the right track...

Take off both shoes and socks then limber up. Now subtract 28 from 100 = 72. Those are the people that think the country are on the wrong track. It was closer to 79% the previous time Enten showed that set of numbers.

No need to thank me.

[1blackman1]

The Nov 5-7 polls should let us know who wins. We’ll have some idea about 1am Nov 6.

The lack of ability to process votes received before Nov 5 is insane considering the number of votes. They should at worst start processing them at 1201 am.

[TravelingHere]

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

The Nov 5-7 polls should let us know who wins. We’ll have some idea about 1am Nov 6.

The lack of ability to process votes received before Nov 5 is insane considering the number of votes. They should at worst start processing them at 1201 am.

Agreed. Still amazes me other countries can get their voting and counting done in one day and it takes us weeks.

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

The Nov 5-7 polls should let us know who wins. We’ll have some idea about 1am Nov 6...

If history be our guide; I would more accurately predict that the significance of the 1AM hour is mostly to give team Demonicrat the needed number of votes to make out of thin air, like in 5 swing states at that same hour(s).

Originally Posted by 1blackman1

...The lack of ability to process votes received before Nov 5 is insane considering the number of votes. They should at worst start processing them at 1201 am.

On this, we agree. Though I feel it's more a lack of desire. The election ends on election day. If your vote ain't in by the close of polls - Too Frick'n Bad.

[Yssup Rider]

Four years later and the only reason tRump lost was because the election was stolen.

Hopefully, today, you fellas will regain some dignity and humility.

All votes must be counted, unless the system is more corrupt than the whiners claim.

Especially when the pundits realize they were wrong again.

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Originally Posted by Yssup Rider

...All votes must be counted, unless the system is more corrupt than the whiners claim...

Even the pole dancer at Snopes understands the simple things in life:

..."As long as I count the Votes, what are you going to do about it. say?" -- attributed to William M. "Boss" Tweed in Thomas Nast cartoon, 7 October 1871).

"'I care not who casts the votes of a nation, provided I can count them,' Napoleon failed to remark." — New York Times editorial (26 May 1880).

"There's more to an election than mere votin', my boy, for as an eminent American once said: 'I care not who casts the votes of a nation if they'll let me make the count.'" — from Uncle Henry, a novel by George Creel, 1922.

"It's not the voting that's democracy, it's the counting, Archie says." — from Jumpers, a play by Tom Stoppard, 1972.

"Indeed, you won the elections, but I won the count." — Nicaraguan dictator Anastasio Somoza (1896-1956), Guardian (London), 17 June 1977.

Former Secretary by Boris Bazhanov, published in 2002. Translated from the Russian, the version which, according to Bazhanov, was uttered in 1923 by Stalin in reference to a vote in the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, was this:

"I consider it completely unimportant who in the party will vote, or how; but what is extraordinarily important is this — who will count the votes, and how."...

Failing that, I'll stick with: The election ends on election day. If your vote ain't in by the close of polls - Too Frick'n Bad.