Quote:
Originally Posted by 1blackman1
40 percent of voters said “no Trump” the real bloodbath will be in November when he loses again. I'm betting 5 million votes this time.
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I say unfortunately because if this election is a blow out, I figure Democrats will win the House and Senate along with the presidency. And I don't think that's a good outcome. With split government like we've got now, the country's exercising more fiscal discipline than 2021/2022. And there's less risk the Biden administration will pull off changes in energy policy that would hurt Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana.
Republicans underperformed the pre-election polls in 2022, and in the Georgia Senate runoffs in 2021. I believe it’s because Democrats and Democrat leaning independents are mad as hell because they believe Trump tried to steal the 2020 election, so they’re on average more motivated to vote than Republicans. The polls may have been more or less correct as to peoples’ intentions, but more Democrats actually turned out to vote.
Well, now Trump’s actually running. Even before the general election, where pissed off Democrats will show up to vote en masse, Trump is far underperforming the polls. He underperformed the polls in South Carolina by 7.3% and in New Hampshire by 6.4% (see below).
If current Trump/Biden polls don’t change much between now and November, your 5 million number could be low. Biden may win by more than he did in 2020.
Backup:
Trump had a 27.6% lead in polls in South Carolina:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...outh-carolina/
Trump wins South Carolina by 20.3%:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...sident-results
Trump had a 17.6% lead in New Hampshire,
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...new-hampshire/
Trump wins New Hampshire by 11.2%
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...sident-results
Haley's voters supposedly are a lot less enthusiastic about their candidate than Trump voters. Why is she coming so much closer to Trump on election day than she is in the polls? Probably because her voters don't like Trump, so they're fired up to go to the election sites and vote for ABT (anyone but Trump). As others have said here, a lot of Haley supporters will sit out the election or cross over and vote for Biden.