Ukraine and Taiwan issues

[VitaMan]

Opinion reports and news on Russia getting ready to invade Ukraine
Opinion and news reports on China getting ready to take over Taiwan

Neither one is going to happen. Just woofing and barking.


21st century media and instant communications:

Great for media to make money off these opinion and news pieces.
Great for countries to be able to communicate, so wars don't actually start because there was no communication.

[HedonistForever]

Taiwan is definitely going to happen..... someday.


Ukraine? Nobody but Putin knows the answer to that but I'd bet he does invade sometime after Feb. 20th when the Chinese Olympics end. Putin sees cracks in NATO and unless he can say he got something of value from NATO in these negotiations, he'll invade.

[Jackie S]

The cost of China invading Taiwan just might be a bloody affair.

From all accounts, Taiwan is a fortress, with substantial defensive capabilities.

I a way, this I mirrors Hitler’s vision of invading England. His Generals told him that getting across the English Channel was not like crossing a river.

The only caveat might be if Taiwan just says……”hey, the communist ain’t all that bad”.

And of course, if the Democracies in the Region, mainly Japan, decide to defend Taiwan. That is a big if.

I think Putin is just pulling NATO’s chain. It gives him the spotlight, keeps his military fed, and sends the US into vapors.

Of course, the caveat to this is if Ukrainians, , many who are Russian, say…..”to heck with it. Putin ain’t all that bad”.

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

I'm not too worried about them in the near term as KumHola will be in charge of those after her recent success with getting control of our own boarders. Don't worry, KumHola's got this. Oops!

Originally Posted by VitaMan

Opinion reports and news on Russia getting ready to invade Ukraine
Opinion and news reports on China getting ready to take over Taiwan

Neither one is going to happen. Just woofing and barking.


21st century media and instant communications:

Great for media to make money off these opinion and news pieces.
Great for countries to be able to communicate, so wars don't actually start because there was no communication.

[HedonistForever]

Originally Posted by Jackie S

The cost of China invading Taiwan just might be a bloody affair.

From all accounts, Taiwan is a fortress, with substantial defensive capabilities.

I a way, this I mirrors Hitler’s vision of invading England. His Generals told him that getting across the English Channel was not like crossing a river.

The only caveat might be if Taiwan just says……”hey, the communist ain’t that bad”.

And of course, if the Democracies in the Region, mainly Japan, decide to defend Taiwan. That is a big if.

I think Putin is just pulling NATO’s chain. It gives him the spotlight, keeps his military fed, and sends the US into vapors.

Of course, the caveat to this is if Ukrainians, , many who are Russian, say…..”to heck with it. Putin ain’t that bad”.

After putting his list of demands out in the open, I wonder how Putin can back down without showing the world and Russians, what he got for all his bluster? What is Putin's main objective? To dismantle NATO. If he invades and say Germany and France refuse to back the US and other NATO allies with "crushing sanctions" which would absolutely blow back on Germany and other European countries, he might calculate that a "small incursion" might just be worth it to him.

[Jackie S]

Originally Posted by HedonistForever

After putting his list of demands out in the open, I wonder how Putin can back down without showing the world and Russians, what he got for all his bluster? What is Putin's main objective? To dismantle NATO. If he invades and say Germany and France refuse to back the US and other NATO allies with "crushing sanctions" which would absolutely blow back on Germany and other European countries, he might calculate that a "small incursion" might just be worth it to him.

Good points.

[VitaMan]

The old negotiation technique centuries old:


ask for more than you expect to get, get less during negotiation, but still satisfied


Soviet Union got USA to take missiles out during the Cuban missile crisis. I think they were in Turkey. It was done very quietly, which is how things could be done during those days.

[HedonistForever]

Originally Posted by VitaMan

The old negotiation technique centuries old:


ask for more than you expect to get, get less during negotiation, but still satisfied


Soviet Union got USA to take missiles out during the Cuban missile crisis. I think they were in Turkey. It was done very quietly, which is how things could be done during those days.

True but IF and that is a big IF, Putin's main goal is to some how fracture NATO, the best plan might be to make NATO members choose whether to impose so called crushing sanctions on Russia and get NATO members bickering with each other.


Strange thing is, Biden might have already started that fracture with his handling of Afghanistan. Many reports coming out after that debacle, the British Parliament standing to denounce Biden's handling being one and France, to name one, wondering out loud if the US being the top dog in NATO, is something to reconsider saying perhaps the US can't be trusted to be the leader of NATO although he didn't say that out loud but it could be read into what he was saying which wasn't at all complimentary to Biden..


If Biden blows this ( if this happens ) it could have serious repercussions for NATO and our strategic alliances and be one more issue against him in 2022.


And nuclear missiles in Cuba is about as apples and oranges as it could get in this discussion. While there may be moral issues involved here, defending democracy which is already a stretch to put Ukraine in that company, there is no strategic value, actually defending the sovereign territory of the US, in all this. We would go on just like Obama did when the Russian's and took Crimea. We yelled and screamed and went right back to business.


And to Tuckers point, why are Ukraine's borders more import than our own borders to defend against? So what if a couple of millions Russians ( not soldiers ) and people from all over the world for that matter want into Ukraine, the part where many Russians already live. Isn't the Biden administration saying exactly that with regard to our own border where at last count people from all corners of the world are coming across our border not just Central American countries. Ukraine for Ukrainians is something to fight for ( but Hungary for Hungarians apparently is not OK ) but US for citizens of the US is some how evil?


And what if we give Ukraine billions and billions of dollars worth of the most sophisticated weapons systems we have, which I've heard a couple of Republicans and Democrats saying, they loose and Russia now has billions and billions of weapons systems developed by the West?


If I were President, I would consider telling Russia what already appears to be the truth, that we have no real interest in admitting Ukraine into NATO, they are still to corrupt and that we will not add a single missile system in any country where they don't already exist. We lose nothing but perhaps a little "face" and Russia can keep a little "face" and nothing really changes.


Then the US goes back to a strategic energy policy destroyed by Biden, telling Europe that we will supply all the natural gas and oil they need and put Russia out of business without ever firing a shot.

[Why_Yes_I_Do]

Originally Posted by VitaMan

...Soviet Union got USA to take missiles out during the Cuban missile crisis. I think they were in Turkey. It was done very quietly, which is how things could be done during those days.

The US agreed to decommission missiles in Turkey, that they were already in process of decommissioning. It's called ye olde flim-flam. Personally, I think the Ruskies knew that, but they had not expected such a strong reaction from the US President on the Ruskie missiles in Cuba. As such, the Ruskies used the Turkey (ironically) missiles to save face and to not press further even though knowing it was flim-flam. It's called a win-win.

[Jackie S]

Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

The US agreed to decommission missiles in Turkey, that they were already in process of decommissioning. It's called ye olde flim-flam. Personally, I think the Ruskies knew that, but they had not expected such a strong reaction from the US President on the Ruskie missiles in Cuba. As such, the Ruskies used the Turkey (ironically) missiles to save face and to not press further even though knowing it was flim-flam. It's called a win-win.

I agree.

[LexusLover]

Originally Posted by VitaMan

Soviet Union got USA to take missiles out during the Cuban missile crisis. I think they were in Turkey. It was done very quietly, which is how things could be done during those days.

We didn't need those "missiles" in Turkey. They needed them in Cuba.

And it wasn't "quiet." What was "quiet" is why we didn't need them.

And also what was quiet were the streets of this country while the ships were intercepted.