Bibi Wins!!

[friendly fred]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

In 2016, 71% of the Jewish vote went to Clinton. Hard to believe that 50% of the Jewish voters would switch their party vote.

However, Orthodox Jews, who are much more conservative than Jews in general, heavily supported Trump.

https://forward.com/news/353914/by-t...6-jewish-vote/

The Orthodox are also considerably more successful reproductively.

Demographics are destiny.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by lustylad

Your math sucks, speedy. Only one out of five Jewish voters needs to switch parties to give Republicans roughly half their vote.

In post #2 nevergaveitathought stated that a friend of his from Israel expected 75% of the Israeli voters to vote Republican in the future. In post #21 I stated that 71% of the Jewish vote went to Clinton in 2016. That means, at least to me, that just less than 50% of the voters who voted Democratic in 2016 would have to change their votes to Republican in order for Trump to get 75% of the Jewish vote in 2020.

I never commented on what % of the Jewish vote would need to change in order for Trump to hit 50% of the vote. Since you think my math skills suck, I'll let you figure that one out if you so desire.

[SpeedRacerXXX]

Originally Posted by friendly fred

The Orthodox are also considerably more successful reproductively.

Demographics are destiny.

Definitely true. Although at the current time Haredi Jews are a minority in Israel.

"By 2030, the Haredi Jewish community is projected to make up 16% of the total population, and by 2065, one third of the Israeli population. The number of Haredi Jews in Israel is rising rapidly."

[lustylad]

Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

In post #2 nevergaveitathought stated that a friend of his from Israel expected 75% of the Israeli voters to vote Republican in the future. In post #21 I stated that 71% of the Jewish vote went to Clinton in 2016. That means, at least to me, that just less than 50% of the voters who voted Democratic in 2016 would have to change their votes to Republican in order for Trump to get 75% of the Jewish vote in 2020.

I never commented on what % of the Jewish vote would need to change in order for Trump to hit 50% of the vote. Since you think my math skills suck, I'll let you figure that one out if you so desire.

You quoted dilbert directly in your post #20. He said a swing to 50% was more likely. If you meant to refer to ngiat's 75% reference, it wasn't clear to me. I already calculated it would only require a switch by one in every five Jewish voters to approach dilbert's 50% number.

[dilbert firestorm]

Originally Posted by lustylad

You quoted dilbert directly in your post #20. He said a swing to 50% was more likely. If you meant to refer to ngiat's 75% reference, it wasn't clear to me. I already calculated it would only require a switch by one in every five Jewish voters to approach dilbert's 50% number.

never said exactly 50%. I said under 50%.


I did say later on that under 40% was more achievable and more likely.