Robert Gates: War on Iran Would Be ‘Catastrophic,’ Make Tehran Nukes ‘Inevitable’

[SEE3772]

A US or Israeli attack on Iran would “prove catastrophic” and “make a nuclear-armed Iran inevitable,” former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said in a speech Wednesday night.

Neither the United States nor Israel is capable of wiping out Iran’s nuclear capability, Gates said, and “such an attack would make a nuclear-armed Iran inevitable. They would just bury the program deeper and make it more covert.”

Not only would Iran be likely to reconstitute its defunct nuclear weapons program, but Tehran might also respond by disrupting world oil traffic in the Persian Gulf and launching a wave of terrorism across the region, Gates claimed.

“The results of an American or Israeli military strike on Iran could, in my view, prove catastrophic, haunting us for generations in that part of the world.”

Gates was reiterating what has become an emergent consensus within the military and intelligence community in the United States, that a war on Iran – which Israel and many hawks in Congress have been pushing for – would not only be entirely discretionary, but would have disastrous consequences for Iran, the region, and the United States.

A report released last month by former government officials, national security experts and retired military officers concluded also that an attack would motivate Iran to restart its weapons development, and that the ensuing war would end up being “more taxing than the Iraq and Afghanistan wars combined.”

On the war strategists’ own terms, a war on Iran would backfire. But the human cost of such a war would also be immense. Even if a US or Israeli strike only targeted Iran’s nuclear sites and it didn’t result in larger land war, the toxic plumes released as a result of the strikes could kill or injure up to 70,000 civilians in nearby cities and towns.

News From Antiwar.com

[theaustinescorts]

Gates is merely stating what is the conclusion of these people....

1.C.I.A.
2.NSC
3.State Dept. Intel Service
4.Central Security Service
5D.I.A.
6.Air Force Intelligence
7.ONI
8.Army Intelligence

All these agencies are on the record that the US should not attack Iran AND WILL NOT PERMIT ISRAEL TO DO SO EITHER.

THERE WILL BE NO WAR WITH IRAN other than the covert war that's been going on for eight years now......

Iran will get nuclear weapons in a few years and they will do exactly what Pakistan, the leader in muslim terror support worldwide, does with theirs....NOTHING.

[joe bloe]

Originally Posted by theaustinescorts

Gates is merely stating what is the conclusion of these people....

1.C.I.A.
2.NSC
3.State Dept. Intel Service
4.Central Security Service
5D.I.A.
6.Air Force Intelligence
7.ONI
8.Army Intelligence

All these agencies are on the record that the US should not attack Iran AND WILL NOT PERMIT ISRAEL TO DO SO EITHER.

THERE WILL BE NO WAR WITH IRAN other than the covert war that's been going on for eight years now......

Iran will get nuclear weapons in a few years and they will do exactly what Pakistan, the leader in muslim terror support worldwide, does with theirs....NOTHING.

If Iran gets nukes they will use them on Israel. Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Khomeini are religious zealots obsessed with destroying Israel; they are crazy.

If the Taliban ever takes over in Pakistan, they'll use their nukes too.

"Islam in a man is as dangerous as rabies in a dog." --Sir Winston Churchill, 1899.

[theaustinescorts]

Originally Posted by joe bloe

If Iran gets nukes they will use them on Israel. Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Khomeini are religious zealots obsessed with destroying Israel; they are crazy.

If the Taliban ever takes over in Pakistan, they'll use their nukes too.

"Islam in a man is as dangerous as rabies in a dog." --Sir Winston Churchill, 1899.

I don't know how to tell you this, but no one who governs a major country like Iran or Pakistan, etc. is crazy.

Even Muammar Kadaffi wasn't crazy.

None of these guys are.

They PRETEND to be irrational so they can frighten their enemies, but they are all very rational actors.

Don't believe the propaganda.

You SHOULD believe what Gates and all other informed people like him are saying.

The Taliban were our allies until 1990, and they will be our allies one day again.

Al-Quada is now our allies in many places.

In the 1980s Israel called the Pakistani nuclear program the "ISLAMIC BOMB,"
and said they'd give atom bombs to Israel's enemies....it never happened.

Statecraft is a game played by intelligent people....not crazy ones.

[TexTushHog]

The consensus has been thought to be for some time that Iran's facilities were not capable of being sufficiently damaged by a U.S. attack to avert them acquiring a bomb. As much as we would like to be the only folks in the world with guns, missiles, bombs, etc., that isn't a realistic wish. And an atomic bomb just isn't that hard to make. After all, it's based on 67 year old technology. Frankly, it's a miracle that so few nations have such weapons as it is.

As to your premise that Iran will use such weapons offensively, that is not consistent with their past actions. They have generally been fairly self interested and haven't done much that is self destructive. But if they do, we certainly seem well armed enough to deal with them.

Attacking out of frustration would accomplish nothing. The best course seems to be the economic sanctions that we're currently applying, or perhaps increasing those sanctions. But if their weapons programs are beyond the reach of our weapons, what else can we do?

[joe bloe]

Originally Posted by theaustinescorts

I don't know how to tell you this, but no one who governs a major country like Iran or Pakistan, etc. is crazy.

Even Muammar Kadaffi wasn't crazy.

None of these guys are.

They PRETEND to be irrational so they can frighten their enemies, but they are all very rational actors.

Don't believe the propaganda.

You SHOULD believe what Gates and all other informed people like him are saying.

The Taliban were our allies until 1990, and they will be our allies one day again.

Al-Quada is now our allies in many places.

In the 1980s Israel called the Pakistani nuclear program the "ISLAMIC BOMB,"
and said they'd give atom bombs to Israel's enemies....it never happened.

Statecraft is a game played by intelligent people....not crazy ones.

Hitler was crazy. I know you're fan, but you have admit, the guy had major issues.

[gnadfly]

Didn't Hitler's generals also urge him not to attack the Soviet Union?

How successful was Israel's attack on Syria's nuclear program?

A major factor in the equation is that Iran has been funding and providing military guidance to Hamas to bomb Israel for a long time. Without that track record, their wish to "wipe Israel of the face of the map" wouldn't be taken so seriously. Hopefully the reported Iranian hyperinflation will help seal the deal on an "Arab Spring."

Where's Htowner? What's his new handle?

[timpage]

Originally Posted by gnadfly

Didn't Hitler's generals also urge him not to attack the Soviet Union?

How successful was Israel's attack on Syria's nuclear program?

A major factor in the equation is that Iran has been funding and providing military guidance to Hamas to bomb Israel for a long time. Without that track record, their wish to "wipe Israel of the face of the map" wouldn't be taken so seriously. Hopefully the reported Iranian hyperinflation will help seal the deal on an "Arab Spring."

Where's Htowner? What's his new handle?

The Hitler analogy won't wash. Hitler thought he could defeat the Soviet Union. Shit, he probably would have if we hadn't come into the war 6 months after he launched his invasion of Russia.

Iran isn't operating under the same set of assumptions. Iranian leaders know, with absolute 100% certainty, that if they fire a nuke at Israel, there will be an instantaneous and overwhelming nuclear response from at least Israel, and probably the United States as well, that will turn large parts of their country into a glass parking lot. Abbadabbadoobajab likes to talk shit, but he doesn't control the country, the mullahs do....and they all want their wives and children to live.

[markroxny]

Gates is right. Iran has multiple facilities buried deep down under tall mountains. You can't be sure you can destroy it all.

I understand if they go nuclear, it will be a HUGE threat to Israel and to our interests, but we have to find another way.