The Election Games! What will the margin of victory be?

[Tiny]

OK, I guess this should be the final update, as results will be coming in in a matter of hours. If anyone else cares to contribute though maybe we can give him an honorable mention if he makes the best guess.

Electoral College

Eyecu2: Harris by 10
Eccieuser: Harris by 15
The Waco Kid: Trump by 86
Texas Contrarian: Trump by 36
Dali Lama: Trump by 86
Winn Dixie: Harris by 14
adav8s28: Harris by 6
Farmstud: Trump by 42
Tiny: Harris by 14

Popular Vote:

ttalinky: Harris by 5.3 percent (assuming 150 million total votes)
Eyecu2: Harris by 4.7 (assuming 150 million total votes)
Texas Contrarian: Harris by 2
Winn Dixie: Harris by 1.5
SpeedRacer: Harris by 2.5
adav8s28: Harris by 1
Farmstud: Trump by 0.5
Why Yes I Do: Trump by 51, baked
Tiny: Harris by 1

Senate

Eyecu2: Repubs by 1
Texas Contrarian: Repubs by 4
Winn Dixie: Tie
SpeedRacer: Repubs by 3
adav8s28: Dems by 2
Farmstud: Repubs by 4
Tiny: Repubs by 1

House

Dems by 4
Texas Contrarian: Dems by 4
Winn Dixie: Dems by 5
adav8s28: Repubs by 5
Farmstud: Repubs by 7.5
Tiny: Dems by 5

Observations

SpeedRacer looks for a narrow Democratic Party victory in the House. Salty believes Trump will win. Eyecu2 is predicting victories for Casey, Cruz and Gallego in the Senate. Ttalinky believes Harris will win by more than 300 electoral votes. A couple of competitors gave ranges. For example SpeedRacer believes Repubs will win the Senate by 52 to 48 or 51 to 49. For those I used the midpoint of the estimates.

Consensus Probabilities from the Punters

And here are consensus probabilities based on betting odds from Stossel's web site as of this moment:

President: Trump 57.9% / Harris 41.6%
Senate Control: Repubs 82.3% / Dems 17.7%
House Control: Dems 52.0% / Repubs 47.8%

Democrats have given up some ground in betting odds since the last update.

[eccieuser9500]

Originally Posted by Tiny

OK, I guess this should be the final update, as results will be coming in in a matter of hours. If anyone else cares to contribute though maybe we can give him an honorable mention if he makes the best guess.

Electoral College

Eyecu2: Harris by 10
Eccieuser: Harris by 15
The Waco Kid: Trump by 86
Texas Contrarian: Trump by 36
Dali Lama: Trump by 86
Winn Dixie: Harris by 14
adav8s28: Harris by 6
Farmstud: Trump by 42
Tiny: Harris by 14

The Price is Right rules:

[Tiny]

Originally Posted by eccieuser9500

The Price is Right rules:

Shrewd move!

[Tiny]

Betting odds are moving strongly in favor of Republicans. As of 8:53 PM CST on Stossel's site, which is updated every minute:

President: Trump 75.4% / Harris 23.2%
Senate Control: Repubs 95.4% / Dems 4.6%
House Control: Dems 36.0% / Repubs 64.0%

I'm going to be very surprised if Republicans don't control the Senate, as Republican Senator Deb Fischer is only trailing Trump in Nebraska by 1% to 2%. And Trump won Nebraska by 19% in 2020. If Fischer wins Nebraska, the Republicans should control the Senate.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

Originally Posted by Tiny

12:34 PM, Tuesday, November 5

Consensus Probabilities from the Punters

And here are consensus probabilities based on betting odds from Stossel's web site as of this moment:

President: Trump 57.9% / Harris 41.6%
Senate Control: Repubs 82.3% / Dems 17.7%
House Control: Dems 52.0% / Repubs 47.8%

Democrats have given up some ground in betting odds since the last update.

[Tiny]

Now at 9:26 PM CST,

President: Trump 87.2% / Harris 12.3%
Senate Control: Repubs 96.8% / Dems 3.2%
House Control: Dems 23.5% / Repubs 76.5%

Time to turn to MSNBC and see if they're as depressed as they were in 2016.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

Originally Posted by Tiny

Betting odds are moving strongly in favor of Republicans. As of 8:53 PM CST on Stossel's site, which is updated every minute:

President: Trump 75.4% / Harris 23.2%
Senate Control: Repubs 95.4% / Dems 4.6%
House Control: Dems 36.0% / Repubs 64.0%

I'm going to be very surprised if Republicans don't control the Senate, as Republican Senator Deb Fischer is only trailing Trump in Nebraska by 1% to 2%. And Trump won Nebraska by 19% in 2020. If Fischer wins Nebraska, the Republicans should control the Senate.

https://electionbettingodds.com/

[Tiny]

Based on betting on Polymarket for individual states, Trump would win with an 86 point electoral edge, same as predicted by Dali Lama and The Waco Kid! Who would have thought!

This potentially looks like the 2020 COVID death guess game, where Adav8s28 went out on a limb and won with a guess of over 1.5 million deaths.

Here are implied probabilities in some individual states, in favor of Trump at the current moment:

Pennsylvania: 87.7%
Wisconsin: 86.5%
Michigan: 78.3%
Arizona 88.2%
Nevada 79%
Georgia 97.1%
North Carolina 96.7%

Overall the punters are giving Trump a 90.1% probability of a win.

[winn dixie]

Slim margins and with large cities still counting. Blue wave coming and trumpf will declare buttfuckery again.

[golferguy55]

Originally Posted by winn dixie

Slim margins and with large cities still counting. Blue wave coming and trumpf will declare buttfuckery again.

LMFAO blue wave my ass. Republicans predicted now to take the Senate.

[winn dixie]

Big cities still have hoogely votes to count

[golferguy55]

Originally Posted by winn dixie

Big cities still have hoogely votes to count

LMFAO how did those hoogely big city votes work out? DJT 47th president of the USA

[winn dixie]

Race has not been called yet. I'm thinking some tomfoolery is happening

[farmstud60]

Originally Posted by winn dixie

Race has not been called yet. I'm thinking some tomfoolery is happening

AP has called it